Dreamliners rolling off production line at steady rate this year

Quote: Fleastiff

A very perceptive observation. Perhaps I should have been more precise and said these were student submissions to airbus from an Innovation Fair.

Oh, that makes a little more sense then. Students always come up with wild ideas that while might sound good rarely have practicality. College breeds that thinking. Then the real world slaps you upside the head and you have to think.

Not just students, though. I was once in what was becoming a blood argument with a woman who worked for my boss on a new computer program. She said "it works!" and I said "it only worked on the computer, it didn't 'work' at all yet, and I can't see how it will."

One guess as to who was right when it was tried. Actually maybe I will start a thread about book vs street smarts at work if anyone cares to hear the story and share others like it.

Quote: AZDuffman

She said "it works!" and I said "it only worked on the computer, it didn't 'work' at all yet, and I can't see how it will."

Computer simulations always "work". They just need enough inputs. You run it a few times and change the inputs until you get the desired output and Voila!

Quote: Pacomartin

Computer simulations always "work". They just need enough inputs. You run it a few times and change the inputs until you get the desired output and Voila!

And when the "Voila" only works once or twice, you dub it "over fitting" and start all over again.

Quote: Pacomartin

Computer simulations always "work". They just need enough inputs. You run it a few times and change the inputs until you get the desired output and Voila!

Part of this falls under "you had to know the person." This was a woman, and only women get to this level, who was major-loyal to the company. Any idea from above, it had to be good. When she was hired it was off of some government program so maybe she came from a hard time, but she was loyal as could be. If you were dictator of Belize you would kill for this kind of loyalty.

But she was an office worker who not a day in her life was in the field. Nor were the programmers who made the program. They thought all you had to do was set a time for the service and things were good. At the time our techs had to make reminder calls the night before, or at least the good ones did. I remember the conversation:

"We won't have to make calls anymore!"
"How come?"
"Because we will be there on time every month!"
"How?"
"Because the system will set the appointments!"
"So how does that get us there on time every month?"
"It makes the appointments close as possible together!"
"So, how again does that mean we will always be on time"
"I saw the computer do it, it works!"
"No, you saw software work, you did not see a system work. And besides, our customer's lives do not revolve around us showing up!"
"YOU HAVE A BAD ATTITUDE!!!!!"

And on it went. When the system was tried in six test branches it worked in 3 and was a disaster in 3. They killed it. I could have told them before they programmed it.

Years later in another life they designed some car loan software, but had to use the old software for a few things. I told a guy it will be well over a year before they migrate it all. I quit and moved back east, called my friend to chat. It came up, he said he mentioned to the boss what I said about a year and the boss just shook his head with a "The SOB was right" look. This boss was not as blind-loyal as the woman before, but he was a company man. I chuckled knowing that my street smarts about it was all correct.

I may be the office grump, but I never get excited about these ideal-situation plans. Because of this, I will never get put on a team to do such a project. Might be for the best because I would be fired after five minutes when I told a V.P. "what you want will not work."

Quote: AZDuffman

I would be fired after five minutes when I told a V.P. "what you want will not work."

I don't know if you are familiar with the concept of a towed array. It is basically a long horizontal antenna that floats in water and listens for objects (usually submarines). It's basically a string of microphones in a garden hose filled with something like kerosene so it doesn't sink.


If you are careful with them they will last for ten years or so in the open ocean, but if you drag them in shallow waters (inside the first island chain), they get caught on sea mounts, fishing nets, and similar ilk. If the boat stalls they land on the bottom of ocean. Sometimes sharks go after anything in the ocean with an electric charge as it feels to them like an animal in distress. And there is always the problem of them being attacked by nationals who don't share the world's definition of the high seas.


I still remember some woman showing up at a meeting and announcing that the next generation towed arrays would last for 25 years because the only way to make them fit the budget was to repair them for that long. The room went silent until someone gurgled out that was completely impossible. In a tough environment you might only last two years. You pull stuff out of the ocean and it's a mess sometimes.


It's amazing what gets through that seems like it doesn't pass the most basic logic analysis.

Someone kept pushing for bats with firecrackers attached to them be dropped to burn down all those Japanese paper houses. Couldn't make them understand the bats will go for caves and bridges, not homes and will roost (and roast) together not in separate quarters.

Instead of Island Hopping in the Pacific we could have used glaciers as runways, but Pencil Pushers kept saying the glacier is too short, do not re-submit.

What about those microphones in Vietnam. Play tapes of crickets to drown out the sound of trucks and play tapes of truck traffic to cause US pilots to bomb mudflats.

You find submarines by finding their bow waves and wake, not propulsion or cooling pump noises.

NOTE: And just as surface vessel designers are all agog with Pentamarans because they capture their own bow waves, don't think the Russian submarine designers are not also looking at Pentamarans because once there is no bow wave there is no wake.

And that first line of microphones is a joke. Traffic will be constant and nearby and some of those countries are politically vacilating or should I say vassalating.

Quote: Pacomartin

I still remember some woman showing up at a meeting and announcing that the next generation towed arrays would last for 25 years because the only way to make them fit the budget was to repair them for that long. The room went silent until someone gurgled out that was completely impossible. In a tough environment you might only last two years. You pull stuff out of the ocean and it's a mess sometimes.

It's amazing what gets through that seems like it doesn't pass the most basic logic analysis.

Some people just do not want to listen.......

Management training program I was in had lots of people just out of college at the time. Wanted "young lions" all the easier to brainwash but hey hey it was good for me. So my first month some senior trainee comes from Ohio for I forget the official reason, but I think to shop him around for his coming assignment.

Now, when I mentioned this guys name to another trainee from his region after the below incident the guy just said, "oooh, that dude is......INTENSE." Whatever that was supposed to mean. But here was how "intense" he was. For who knows why, he was saying how we would do a job. 10 year experience manager, 10 year experience tech, and this guy is instructing. I'm a month on the job keeping my mouth shut. So the guy says, "drill here and pump, then go outside and pump from there." Tech protests that this will not work as when the hole is put in everything is going to leak. Guy pulls out an arrogant "DO IT THIS WAY!" 20 minutes later we had to clean up the spill on the floor.

But maybe the guy had a relative.......

Mechanic worked with my dad had a foreman told him to drill into a bus body for I forget why. "Drill there!" Mechanic protested that it was a bad idea, but was shouted with a "do as you are told!" So he does, and as he did there was the "hisssss" of a drill bit puncturing the lines for the air brakes.

The manager trainee I dealt with probably is a VP somewhere by now :-(

http://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/will-787-program-ever-show-an-overall-profit-analysts-grow-more-skeptical/
Will 787 program ever show an overall profit?

Dreamliners stand at 329 deliveries out of 1,097 orders, and they are hoping that sometime this year they will start making a profit per plane. Boeing is trying to reassure analysts that the program in toto will make a profit if they get just 200 additional orders. Analysts are saying that it may take more than 2000 deliveries, and some are saying never. A few questions pop into my head.

1) Why would Boeing design a replacement for the 757? Wouldn't that just eat into Dreamliner sales?
2) In May 2015 Boeing announced it would convert the current 787 'surge' line at Everett by the end of 2015 into an early production line for the 777X with the first 777X expected to roll off that line in 2018. Is this production model in the same situatation as the 787?

3) How much longer will Airbus be able to delay making a decision on the neoA380?

Didn't Qantas just announce Australia to London flights on Dreamliners? Record milelage.

Dreamliners are selling and not just as "orders in a que, to later be altered".

Quote: Fleastiff

Didn't Qantas just announce Australia to London flights on Dreamliners? Record milelage.

There has never been a scheduled nonstop from Australia to UK. Qantas has switched it's layovers for the A380 from Singapore to Dubai given that they can share in the A380 terminal. So they virtually duplicate the Emirates routes.

The 787-9 could mean that flights from Perth to London, a journey of more than 14,000 kilometres, would be feasible. It would break the current distance record (also held by Qantas), but not the former record held by Singapore Air. Qantas has ordered 14 B787-8 but 3 have not been delivered. It may be considering upgrading the last three to the B787-9 model.

Rank GCCSA/SUA State/Territory June 2014 (distance to London)
1 Sydney / New South Wales 4,840,628 (17100 km)
2 Melbourne / Victoria 4,440,328 (16900 km)
3 Brisbane / Queensland 2,274,460 (16600 km)
4 Perth / Western Australia 2,021,203 (14500 km)
5 Adelaide / South Australia 1,304,631 (16300 km)

The route would not be without its challenges. In order to make the distance, the flight would likely have to pass over the Crimea, which is currently off-limits to airlines in the wake of last year's shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. On the return journey if an alternative airport to Perth was needed (due to thunderstorms, for example). The nearest major airport is Adelaide, more than 2000 kilometres away.

I wouldn't bet on it happening until they have longer range aircraft.

Keep in mind that Qantas is staving off bankruptcy. This may be too risky a move for them.

Boeing 787 orders and deliveries by
type Total orders /deliveries
787-8 457 / 275
787-9 494 / 54
787-10 146 / –
Total 1,097 /329