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Number of movie tickets hit two decade low
| January 2nd, 2015 at 6:52:57 PM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 | Americans aged 14-24 — delivered a stunning 15% decline in movie-going; after a reported 17% decline in the previous year. Older people might divide movies into the category of what you want to see in a theater, vs what you can watch on TV. The emotional impact of Saving Private Ryan is much stronger if you can't put it on pause, and you must watch the horror on the big screen. Younger people seem to be watching more things on phones, and reserving trips to the theater for special effect films. In any case , we probably don't need 40,000 movie screens in the USA to sell 1.278 billion tickets (average 87 per day per screen for all showngs). |
| January 3rd, 2015 at 6:32:55 AM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18210 |
This tells me that there is even more danger for the movie business as the average consumer seems to be willing to pay about $10 for their trip to the movies. For that price I can get an entire month of Netflix. Just another old, entertainment industry soon to be shaken to the ground. The President is a fink. |
| January 3rd, 2015 at 8:54:55 AM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
Well, the movie industry has always been more expensive than watching TV, in whatever form. I think that since color TV became common in 1965-66 they have been predicting the demise of movies. But going to the movies is always cheaper than live entertainment or sports. But screens are better today, and the price of commercial free video is at all time lows. |
| January 3rd, 2015 at 10:56:23 AM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18210 |
Movies used to be a way to see something special. No commercials, saltier content than was on the networks, screen bigger than the 25 inch that was more or less the top-end for home sets pre-1980. Movies have none of this anymore. Then combine that Hollywood seems to get less and less creative every year, more sequels, etc. A big factor is real estate and labor costs So much more sunk cost than the glory days that you need a huge theater with so many screens. But as we have seen, it is hard to fill all of those screens. So you are back to where you started. The President is a fink. |
| January 3rd, 2015 at 3:40:44 PM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
There are quite a lot of R-rated films released (192 this year). The average box office is less than $12 million. Presumably the bulk of these movies are horror films. Movies - Average $ Millions - Rating 6 $26.40 G 53 $38.75 PG 122 $41.39 PG-13 192 $11.85 R But there are only 6 films that made over $100million and are rated R. The top 10 in 2014 were: $192 "22 Jump Street" Sony $166 Gone Girl Fox $150 Neighbors Uni. $127 Lucy Uni. $107 300: Rise of An Empire WB $101 The Equalizer Sony $85 Fury (2014) Sony $85 Tammy WB $84 Annabelle WB (NL) $82 Let's Be Cops Fox I was thinking maybe a theater that caters to R rated films might work. The Art House theater near the Sands casino let's you drink alcohol in the theater (beer and wine only). But the problem is that there are many reasons for an R rating. They could be sex comedies, or thrillers, or violent, or horror films. I have to think that some of these movies are made assuming that kids under the age of 17 will sneak in. Plus a lot of teenagers have seen or tried many of the things they see in R-rated films. |
| January 3rd, 2015 at 5:45:37 PM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18210 |
I would say just the opposite. By shutting out the family market you shut out a lot. First assume the PG market if a family one will sell more tickets just because with the kids in tow there are more people per group. More concessions, too. Yes, teenagers are going to get in and there will be some "forbidden fruit" to it. I still maintain they pushed too far with admission and concession pricing as well as number of screens. Think of the ways the model needs to change. Assume that you need $1MM in revenue to make a viable business for a small owner. That is only $20,000 per week. Further assume that 3/4 of that comes Thursday/Friday/Saturday. You need $5K per day. Figure $10 per customer in total revenue. You need 500 people to watch a movie each of those days. This should not be that hard, right? Well, it will be hard based on the model we have now. Studios talking 90% on opening week. But what if they cut it back to say 50%? Or perhaps 90% of the first 50% of seats then 10% of the rest? But the key being something to let the owner wet their beak. Now, next thing is an owner needs to work the social media to get tails in the seats. It is a saying in sports (other than the NFL) that if you just get people who come to one game to come to two you triple your attendance. It is reasonable to believe the same for movies. Get the revenue model fixed and hire a local marketing person. Clearly hoping the studio sends something good in the can is not going to do it. The President is a fink. |
| January 4th, 2015 at 2:59:28 AM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
You lost me a little bit in your numbers. If you want to average 500 people per day per screen that is a huge step up from this years 87 people per day per screen. You would have to close most of the theaters. If you mean 500 people per day per theater, then most theaters have 6 or more screens anyway. |
| January 4th, 2015 at 5:54:06 AM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18210 |
I am saying 500 people per day per at $10 each is $15,000 per weekend or a million in revenue per year when you throw in the lighter days. What I am advocating is that the 15-20 screen mega-plexes are waste of capital. Go back down to 4, which in my model is $4MM per year. But work to fill them with lots of social media and local in the trenches marketing. Far better ROI. Perhaps movie buffs will like the more personal experience. I know if I have to ask directions to get to the screen and it takes more than a point left or right then something is wrong. It will not happen with the current studio model. But if say someone could consolidate marketing of indie flicks perhaps it would? The President is a fink. |
| January 4th, 2015 at 6:41:32 AM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
That is difficult to argue with. I can't imagine any other industry (transportation, restaurants, live theater, sports) that has so many seats relative to the average attendance). Screens in US and Canada 15,782 digital 3d 24,042 digital 2d 2,990 analog 42,814 total
I think there are very few theaters in our most densely populated urban centers. Maybe there they average 500 people per screen per day. But 43K theaters while attendance averages 3500K per day this year is ridiculous. |
| January 4th, 2015 at 7:52:44 AM permalink | |
| zippyboy Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 2 Posts: 665 |
Something that's always baffled me about the movie business model is the price. It costs me $9 to see a movie, any movie, regardless if it's an 80-minute teen slasher pic with no stars, or a 3-hour Oscar winner like Titanic. Same $9. Ditto for where it's shown. My small town single-screen 80-year-old theater shows first-run films for $9, but it's got a small screen and out-of-date sound system and tiny uncomfortable seats where my view is blocked if someone sits in front of me, so I won't see movies there. For my $9, I'm going to drive 30 minutes to the next town with big screen, Dolby/THX, and stadium seating with comfy cushions...same $9 price. It's irritating. It should be $3 to see low-budget films in crappy theaters. Can you imagine any other industry that's run this way? A car dealer: "$50,000 cars here, same price any car whether it's Fiat or Ferrari" Restaurants: "$25 per plate whether it's Wagyu ribeye with truffles or an Iceberg wedge". Promoters: "$50 concert tickets here anywhere in the country, whether it's Rolling Stones in an arena, or some garage band just starting out". Why does Hollywood do this? After all these decades? Does no one else notice? |