Bombardier CS300

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October 9th, 2017 at 7:29:49 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 822
Posts: 9887
Quote: Nareed
IMO, Airbus offers a superior narrow body plane. Not very superior because it's also a decades-old design.


Well that point is debated on a lot of forums, but if the unspecified orders all become MAX-8 then Boeing may be on equal footing with the A320 neo.

They are clearly getting their asses kicked on the larger and longer range A321.

51 A319neo
3673 A320neo
1478 A321neo (long range variant not specifically broken out)

50 MAX-7
2050 MAX-8 (MAX-200)
75 MAX-9
262 MAX-10
1465 MAX-unspecified

Boeing MAX orders (no variant specified)
774 Unidentified Customer(s) Oct 1, 12
201 Lion Air Feb 22, 12
200 Southwest Airlines Dec 13, 11
170 GECAS Sep 28, 12
142 SpiceJet Oct 23, 13
135 United Airlines Jul 12, 12
130 Air Lease Corporation Jul 3, 12
110 Norwegian Jan 24, 12
110 Ryanair Nov 28, 14
100 AerCap Jun 12, 15
100 American Airlines Feb 1, 13
100 VietJet Air May 22, 16
90 SMBC Aviation Capital Nov 10, 14
80 Aviation Capital Group Dec 20, 12
76 flydubai Dec 31, 13
75 Jet Airways Apr 23, 13
75 Turkish Airlines May 8, 13
71 BOC Aviation Limited Aug 13, 14
70 TUI Travel PLC Jul 9, 13
69 GOL Airlines Oct 1, 12
61 Air Canada Mar 31, 14
61 COPA Airlines May 30, 13
60 Aeromexico Nov 5, 12
842 40 small orders of 50 or less

Airbus neo orders (no variant specified)
568 UNDISCLOSED
430 INDIGO INDIA
404 AIRASIA MALAYSIA
220 GECAS UNITED STATES
211 AERCAP NETHERLANDS
178 LION AIR INDONESIA
152 AIR LEASE CORPORATION UNITED STATES
144 GO AIR INDIA
137 AVIANCA COLOMBIA
130 EASYJET UNITED KINGDOM
110 SMBC AVIATION CAPITAL IRELAND
110 WIZZ AIR HUNGARY HUNGARY
101 LUFTHANSA GERMANY
100 AMERICAN AIRLINES UNITED STATES
99 QANTAS AIRWAYS AUSTRALIA
97 NORWEGIAN NORWAY
92 TURKISH AIRLINES TURKEY
85 ALAFCO KUWAIT
85 JETBLUE AIRWAYS UNITED STATES
80 FLYNAS SAUDI ARABIA
80 FRONTIER AIRLINES UNITED STATES
75 PEGASUS AIRLINES TURKEY
73 VIETJET VIET NAM
70 HONG KONG AVIATION CAPITAL HONG KONG
68 BOC AVIATION SINGAPORE
68 CALC CHINA
62 SYNERGY AEROSPACE CORPORATION BRAZIL
61 AVIATION CAPITAL GROUP UNITED STATES
55 LATAM AIRLINES GROUP CHILE
1057 45 smaller orders of 50 or less


Quote: Nareed
For the future, Boeing seems to be betting on a middle-of-the-market plane. I've no idea what airbus is developing.


It's a little disturbing that nearly all the leasing companies are favoring NEO over MAX
GECAS 170 MAX | 210 NEO
AIR LEASE CORPORATION 130 MAX | 152 NEO
AERCAP NETHERLANDS 100 MAX | 211 NEO
SMBC AVIATION CAPITAL IRELAND 90 MAX | 110 NEO
HONG KONG AVIATION CAPITAL 80 MAX | 70 NEO
BOC AVIATION SINGAPORE 71 MAX | 68 NEO
ALAFCO KUWAIT 85 NEO

I don't necessarily see that Boeing will go into the MOM. Boeing makes most of it's profits from the 777-300ER. It may just concede the narrowbody market to Airbus and the new competitors in a decade. It is certainly in a catch up position. I know that Airbus executives think they have an irrevocable lead in the narrowbody market.
October 10th, 2017 at 6:31:25 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 54
Posts: 6039
Quote: Pacomartin
. I know that Airbus executives think they have an irrevocable lead in the narrowbody market.
Boeing already learned about complacency, perhaps Airbus should beware of it too.
October 10th, 2017 at 6:31:26 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 54
Posts: 6039
Quote: Pacomartin
. Time to load and turnaround a plane can be a critical factor irrespective of width or seat comfort reputations.
October 10th, 2017 at 7:08:31 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12534
Quote: Pacomartin
I don't necessarily see that Boeing will go into the MOM. Boeing makes most of it's profits from the 777-300ER. It may just concede the narrowbody market to Airbus and the new competitors in a decade. It is certainly in a catch up position.


Narrow bodies sell in far greater numbers than wide bodies. Even if Boeing is making more money from a large wide body, I bet it generates more cash flow from the 737. I don't think the aircraft manufacturing business is feast and famine like some other types of industries.

Quote:
I know that Airbus executives think they have an irrevocable lead in the narrowbody market.


I seem to recall saying not to long ago, that had Ancient Greece done nothing but warn about hubris it would have been enough. they're well on the way of repeating Boeing's mistake, and winding up with a fourth generation A320 two decades from now. Even if Boeing retires from the narrow body market, this would leave them vulnerable against COMAC, Bombardier or Embraer later on.

BTW, given the continuing increase in flying all over the world, two large manufacturers are simply not enough.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
October 10th, 2017 at 6:32:48 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 822
Posts: 9887
Quote: Nareed
Narrow bodies sell in far greater numbers than wide bodies. Even if Boeing is making more money from a large wide body, I bet it generates more cash flow from the 737. I don't think the aircraft manufacturing business is feast and famine like some other types of industries.


That is true!.

For instance, the 777-8/9 are not shipping until December 2019 if no problems develop.

There are about 101 unfilled orders right now for the current generation of B777 and there were 99 delivered in 2016. (although production will be cut to 84 per year).
70 777-300ER
31 777F
=================
The remaining passengers 777-300ER go to:
16 Emirates
13 Unidentified Customer(s)
10 Qatar Airways
6 Korean Air
6 ANA Holdings Inc.
5 Pakistan International Airline
4 United Airlines
3 Air India
2 Swiss International Air Lines
2 Business Jet / VIP Customer(s)
2 Intrepid Aviation
1 EVA Air
70 777-300ER Total

Even at the slower 84 per year production rate, there probably will be a gap in the production line, which may be partially filled by selling more aircraft, but possibly at a greatly reduced price. Near the end of production, manufacturers are often willing to sell the last orders at much less money to keep the line going.

This gap in revenue is partially made up by Dreamliner sales, but Boeing intends to increase production of the B737 to help fill the gap by increasing cash flow.

If in fact most or all of the unspecified models end up being MAX-8 or MAX-200s then the analyst says that they should simply cut their losses and work on the clean - sheet design. With production at 47 per month this summer, to increase to 52 per month next summer those variants are only worth a few months at best.
50 MAX-7
2050 MAX-8 (MAX-200)
75 MAX-9
262 MAX-10
1465 MAX-unspecified
October 11th, 2017 at 7:42:06 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12534
Quote: Pacomartin
That is true!.


It also makes Boeing's decades-long neglect of the narrow body market the more puzzling.

I'd even question whether Boeing should stay out of the regional jet market altogether. Consider the C Series can easily handle short transatlantic flights. Consider, too, the speculation of a CS 500 which would compete directly with the 737 and the A320 families. Perhaps it's time for both of the BIG commercial aircraft companies to make a lighter plane that can be scaled up, rather than a heavier plane that might be scaled down. The latter include lost causes like the MAX 7 and the A318.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
October 11th, 2017 at 1:32:00 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12534
Delta says they won't pay the absurd tariffs on the C Series, and that they will deploy and operate the jets.

So this means either:

A) They're bluffing

B) They expect the tariffs to be struck down (there are many ways to do this)

C) They'll do as I and many others have suggested, and lease the planes from a foreign lessor or a foreign airline they can persuade to help them (like Virgin Atlantic or Aeromexico, in which Delta holds a 49% share)

Which brings up two questions:

1) If Aeromexico buys the jets to lease to delta, what does that do to their relationship with Embraer? AM, after all, operates several E jets.

2) Is this a good time to buy Bombardier stock? It's rather low at 2.35 CAD.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
October 11th, 2017 at 3:29:22 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 822
Posts: 9887
Quote: Nareed
Perhaps it's time for both of the BIG commercial aircraft companies to make a lighter plane that can be scaled up, rather than a heavier plane that might be scaled down. The latter include lost causes like the MAX 7 and the A318.


I would say that market is going to have so many competitors in a few years that they should simply give up the variants. As that anylist said the fact that so many orders are listed as unspecified is just to hide how few orders they have for MAX-7, MAX-9, and MAX-10.
October 11th, 2017 at 4:40:56 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12534
Quote: Pacomartin
I would say that market is going to have so many competitors in a few years that they should simply give up the variants. As that anylist said the fact that so many orders are listed as unspecified is just to hide how few orders they have for MAX-7, MAX-9, and MAX-10.


These days few airlines marry manufacturers, perhaps because there are fewer of them. It's too easy to play off Airbus against Boeing and viceversa.

So I'd say neither of the big two can shun any market segment. If Bombardier is near to encroaching on your turf, then encroach on theirs. Surely one of the two could produce small, light jets cheaper than either Bombardier or Embraer.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
October 11th, 2017 at 10:01:57 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 822
Posts: 9887
The B737-700 has been in production for 20 years, and there delivered over 1100 of them and there is about 7 left unfilled. It seats 143.

The Bombardier CS-300 seats 145 and they have delivered 5 to airBaltic and 1 to Swiss Global Air Lines..

But Bombardiers has 231 unfilled orders for the CS300. This model is not the one that Delta ordered.
Boeing has 50 orders for MAX7 and they don't even plan to deliver for two more years. Of the three orders the newest is nearly three years old.
December 13, 2011 Southwest Airlines 30
September 26, 2013 WestJet 15
December 11, 2014 Canada Jetlines 5

Quote: Nareed
Surely one of the two could produce small, light jets cheaper than either Bombardier or Embraer.


Judging by the Bombardier's 238 orders to 50 Boeing MAX-7 orders and 51 Airbus A319neo orders, your conjecture is not true.
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