Bombardier CS300

Quote: Pacomartin

I am actually shocked that they are buying so few of a single variant. I think they are not going to buy any of these, but Boeing doesn't want to tip their hand yet.

Has Boeing even built a singe MAX 7?

I think it would be cheaper to let Southwest have MAX 8s instead at MAX 7 prices in numbers equal to their original MAX 7 order.

Quote: Nareed

Has Boeing even built a singe MAX 7?

No, they are not going to start delivery until 2019. By that point they will have already delivered hundreds of MAX-8 variant as they plan to have production ramped up to 50 a month by 2019.

It has occurred to me as well that giving a discount of ten to twenty million per plane may be cheaper than changing the production line to accommodate the smaller plane, but there may be little difference in the assembly process.

Some analysts have pointed out that the time and expense of getting all variants approved other than the MAX-8 may have been wasted money. They should have invested the engineering time in a product that really mattered, like the B797.

Quote: Pacomartin

Some analysts have pointed out that the time and expense of getting all variants approved other than the MAX-8 may have been wasted money. They should have invested the engineering time in a product that really mattered, like the B797.

My concern lay exactly in the expense of a building prototypes for testing and certification, if the end result is only a handful of orders.

But you know it was much cheaper to upgrade a design five decades old, right?

I keep harping on that, but the truth is that it is a common practice. McDonnell Douglas kept updating the DC-9, Airbus has stayed with the A320 for over 30 years, and the trend extends to wide bodies. The 747 is over 40 year old. Still, in wide bodies there were alternatives like the 777 that dethroned the Queen. IMO that what scares Boeing about the C Series.

Quote: Nareed

IMO that what scares Boeing about the C Series.

Bombardier's order activity for 2017 was so minimal, that it hardly seems worry about.

Bombardier order activity for 2017 (net increase of 12 orders)
16 Mar 2017 Swiss Global Air Lines- upgraded 5 CS100s to 5 CS300s
30 Jun 2017 Braathens Regional Aviation - downgraded 5 CS300s to 5 CS100s
29 Dec 2017 EgyptAir ordered 12 CS300s

In comparison
thru Nov 2017 - 420 final orders for B737 MAX (all variants, but mostly -8)
thru Nov 2017 - 185 final orders for A320 neo (all variants)

On November 15 2017 Airbus announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with Indigo Partners' four portfolio airlines for 430 A320neo family aircraft - a deal worth nearly $50 billion. On December 14 2017 Delta Air Lines announced an order for 100 A321neo aircraft and 100 options, powered by Pratt & Whitney PW1100Gs.

Quote: Pacomartin

Bombardier's order activity for 2017 was so minimal, that it hardly seems worry about.

It worried them enough to go running to Papa Trump for a tariff.

I don't believe they're worried about competition with the MAX 7, but rather that a hypothetical CS 500 could blow some future orders of the MAX 8. ironically, that doesn't seem likely anymore since Airbus took over the C Series program, It's not like they need the competition for the A320 family, right?

The A319 had 1484 orders and backlog of 21 undelivered planes. Airbus decided to launch the programme on 10 June 1993.

Like the MAX-7 there are almost no orders for the A319 neo

A319neo orders
20| 26 January 2012 Avianca
18| 8 November 2011 & 15 November 2017 Frontier Airlines
10| N/A Undisclosed customers
3| N/A Governments; Executive and Private Jets

Quote: Nareed

since Airbus took over the C Series program, It's not like they need the competition for the A320 family, right?

No but a CS500 would be direct competition with the A319neo.

I am not totally sure why orders are so low for the smaller variants. Airlines may simply have decided that they are not cost effective and prefer the 160-230 seat narrow body size.

Delta seems as if it is going to pass the bulk of the seventy five 110 seat CS100s ordered to Aeromexico Connect to expand service to South American cities.

Since Delta owns 49% of AM, perhaps they will coordinate 5th freedom flights


Delta Air Lines flies from Atlanta to
Guadalajara,
Mexico City,
Monterrey,
Bogotá,
Belize City,
Guatemala City,
Managua,
Panama City–Tocumen,
San José (Costa Rica),
San Pedro Sula,
San Salvador
Quito
It might be more profitable to have Aeromexico Connect take some of those flights

Quote: Pacomartin

I am not totally sure why orders are so low for the smaller variants. Airlines may simply have decided that they are not cost effective and prefer the 160-230 seat narrow body size.

I think passenger capacity falls off faster than fuel consumption. Especially since the size reduction doesn't affect the cross-section area exposed to air resistance and drag.

I wonder how the mania to control capacity plays into it.

Quote:

Since Delta owns 49% of AM, perhaps they will coordinate 5th freedom flights

That would be interesting. But it has two major problems:

1) Hardly anyone thinks "Aeromexico" when flying from Atlanta to Central and South America. But this could be solved by a code share.

2) What passes these days for an administration in the US, may not look kindly into Delta outfoxing them on tariffs.

Quote: Nareed

1) Hardly anyone thinks "Aeromexico" when flying from Atlanta to Central and South America. But this could be solved by a code share.
2) What passes these days for an administration in the US, may not look kindly into Delta outfoxing them on tariffs.

Yes, but Delta is advertising partnership: Collectively we operate more than 400 flights between Mexico and the U.S., offering greater benefits to more than five million passengers per year.
https://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US/traveling-with-us/where-we-fly/flight-partners/aero-mexico-partnership.html

Perhaps by using the planes for "AM Connect", the anger will dissipate.


Between two airlines they average 20,160 seats per day with an 82% load on 127 daily flights of an average of 158 seats. So despite their advertisement it is more like 6 million passengers.

Mexico is the largest foreign destination for Delta Airlines.

For example last year Delta flew
159 seats 1 daily roundtrip ATL to GDL 1,469 miles
135 seats 5 daily roundtrip ATL to MEX 1,331 miles


Neither Aeromexico or Aeromexico Connect fly regularly to Atlanta

As those ranges are easily within range of Bombardier CS100 perhaps it would be more profitable to have "AC Connect" fly 7 trips per day to from MEX to Atlanta and 2 trips per day from GDL to Atlanta. Maybe even introduce a daily flight from MTY.