Gigafactory

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May 3rd, 2015 at 7:15:45 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 329
Posts: 11371
Quote: Pacomartin
Nareed can send him an email to correct him.


Frankly such grand pronouncements may be early symptoms of Messianic Syndrome. I wish he'd just concentrate on SpaceX more.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
May 3rd, 2015 at 7:55:27 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 736
Posts: 8585
Quote: Nareed
Frankly such grand pronouncements may be early symptoms of Messianic Syndrome.


Well billions of dollars and constant comparisons with Iron Man will tend to do that. If you talk about eliminating fossil fuels, then the POTUS is your buddy.

May 3rd, 2015 at 9:40:40 PM permalink
reno
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 53
Posts: 876
Quote: Nareed
Frankly such grand pronouncements may be early symptoms of Messianic Syndrome. I wish he'd just concentrate on SpaceX more.


Unlike Nareed, I'm not really that interested in SpaceX. Explain to me: how will SpaceX ever have much of an impact on my personal, everyday life?

And all those billionaires are egomaniacs, I wouldn't single out Elon Musk. (see: Larry Ellison and/or Richard Branson) It's a bit of a sham that in the media, Musk gets credit for "founding" or "inventing" Tesla, in the same way that Steve Jobs gets credit for "founding" Apple. But Musk was never the founder of Tesla! It's a myth, a fairy tale. The truth is that Musk came along a few years later, fired the CEO, and took over the company once it was on the verge of bankruptcy. I'm not saying he's a fraud, but his image sure is.

***

Despite Musk's gigantic ego, I'm totally rooting for Tesla to succeed. If the gigafactory drives down the cost of batteries to below $100 per kWh, (Tesla's partner Panasonic agrees that it's feasible) than a 200-mile-range Model 3 for less than $30,000 could easily have an impact on not just my life, but on millions of lives. I admit the hype is obnoxious, but it's not entirely unjustified: a $30,000 Tesla with 200 miles of range could indeed revolutionize the global auto market. It sounds like hyperbole, but it might actually happen. (The caveat is that the Model 3 needs to be as sexy as the Model S. There's nothing sexy about a goddamn Nissan Leaf or a Toyota Prius.)

At least in public, Toyota says they're not interested in pursuing battery electric vehicles; Toyota's bets are entirely on hydrogen fuel cells. (On the contrary, Nissan, BMW, and GM seem genuinely committed to destroying Tesla. More power to 'em.) But to me, Toyota isn't even the most fascinating part of this soap opera. I'm more curious what Shell, Exxon, BP, Chevron, etc think of Tesla's gigafactory and if they're worried about the Model 3. The oil companies should be terrified of a $30,000 Tesla with a 200 mile range. Big Oil is probably in denial; they assume nothing will ever change.
May 5th, 2015 at 3:09:17 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 736
Posts: 8585
Quote: reno
If the gigafactory drives down the cost of batteries to below $100 per kWh, (Tesla's partner Panasonic agrees that it's feasible) than a 200-mile-range Model 3 for less than $30,000 could easily have an impact on not just my life, but on millions of lives.


Powerwall comes in a US$3,500 10 kWh weekly cycle model and a US$3,000 7 kWh daily cycle model.

That sounds like $350/kWh and over $430/kWh

Tesla Power plans on providing larger 100 kilowatt-hour battery called the Powerpack for industrial users at US$25,000 each.

Sounds like $250/kWh.
May 5th, 2015 at 3:54:43 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 103
Posts: 6785
Quote: reno
I'm more curious what Shell, Exxon, BP, Chevron, etc think of Tesla's gigafactory and if they're worried about the Model 3. The oil companies should be terrified of a $30,000 Tesla with a 200 mile range. Big Oil is probably in denial; they assume nothing will ever change.


They will not be "terrified." 200 miles is still too short for many people, including myself. Oil has many uses besides as a motor fuel. Until they can find a way to charge that 200 mile range in less than 15 minutes the practicality is not there.

IMHO Tesla has more potential as a battery company. If they can get that large, household battery to work then they have something. Such a battery would make solar or wind make more sense. It would allow more "off-grid" living. And it would save having to build more power plants for marginal demand. Perhaps Tesla is not really a "car company" and eventually will be seen as just a maker of multiple electric products?
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
May 5th, 2015 at 8:39:25 AM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
Oil for transportation is still going to keep on for many years... it's a massively energy dense resource. There's nothing like it right now, as much as I'd like electric trains and light rail, those things don't work over long distances and we've become used to our comforts of getting in car to do things, not weight for shared transit.
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
May 5th, 2015 at 8:44:18 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 103
Posts: 6785
Quote: TheCesspit
Oil for transportation is still going to keep on for many years... it's a massively energy dense resource. There's nothing like it right now, as much as I'd like electric trains and light rail, those things don't work over long distances and we've become used to our comforts of getting in car to do things, not weight for shared transit.


Light rail has this weird siren call, It does have a place and here in Pittsburgh works well for the line it is on. But it works because all the stops can sprawl out in one line and the cars can run every 10 minutes or so. Take that away and not so hot.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
May 5th, 2015 at 9:00:09 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 736
Posts: 8585
Quote: reno
I'm more curious what Shell, Exxon, BP, Chevron, etc think of Tesla's gigafactory and if they're worried about the Model 3. The oil companies should be terrified of a $30,000 Tesla with a 200 mile range. Big Oil is probably in denial; they assume nothing will ever change.


First of all I think the $30,000 Tesla with a 200 mile range is just fodder for speeches. I doubt that any of us will ever see one.

Big oil is no more afraid of this vehicle than they are of Nissan Versa.


Nissan Versa $11,990 Starting MSRP* ($12,800 minimum price) is cheapest car sold in USA
Fuel tank (gals) 10.8
5-Speed Manual 36 Highway 27 City*
4-speed automatic 35 Highway 26 City*
EPA range: 378 miles Annual Fuel Cost* $1,050
May 5th, 2015 at 10:41:26 AM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
Quote: AZDuffman
Light rail has this weird siren call, It does have a place and here in Pittsburgh works well for the line it is on. But it works because all the stops can sprawl out in one line and the cars can run every 10 minutes or so. Take that away and not so hot.


Yep, it has it's place (it's brilliant in Portland and Vancouver, and very useful in Sheffield, England). It's not a one size fits all solution. If it doesn't run like clockwork it is under used, and becomes a white elephant.
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
May 5th, 2015 at 11:50:43 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 736
Posts: 8585
Quote: TheCesspit
It's not a one size fits all solution. If it doesn't run like clockwork it is under used, and becomes a white elephant.


San Diego Trolley opened in 1981 with 13.5 miles of operations on the South Line. It was incredibly cheap since it duplicated a passenger rail that ran in the 1930's. The stations were no frills and looked like bus stops. More importantly it ran from downtown San Diego to the Mexican border so it served a lot of people who didn't have automobiles.

Additional vehicles were purchased in 1983, and the South Line was mostly double-tracked by 1984, largely on the strength of demand for more frequent headways.



Then they kept adding on with fancier and fancier stations to try and attract middle class and college students. Unfortunately those people don't want to ride trolleys. So the cost per mile began to exceed the original 13.5 mile system.
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