Gigafactory

Quote: Pacomartin

Forbes pegged Elon Musk's net worth at $11.9 billion this year, so if not mainstream, there is a healthy small market.

I made more money doing notary signings last week than Tesla has made since it was formed. At the moment Musk's wealth comes from selling stock and ideas, not cars. Until Tesla makes a profit on cars and not crony pollution credit sales I am not changing my opinion.

Quote: AZDuffman

I made more money doing notary signings last week than Tesla has made since it was formed. At the moment Musk's wealth comes from selling stock and ideas, not cars. Until Tesla makes a profit on cars and not crony pollution credit sales I am not changing my opinion.

Musk's made plenty on other endeavours. But, the electric car is a niche. It's not the answer for long distance driving right now, and there's no reason for tax dollars to be put into making it something it's not. Musk and other pioneers should absolutely be encouraged to try though, as that's how we grow economies. No special pleading should be required.

Right now, as Paco says, the market is low speed, short range vehicles, where I can see many possibilities... but mostly not for the mass consumer market.

Quote: TheCesspit

Musk's made plenty on other endeavours. But, the electric car is a niche. It's not the answer for long distance driving right now, and there's no reason for tax dollars to be put into making it something it's not. Musk and other pioneers should absolutely be encouraged to try though, as that's how we grow economies. No special pleading should be required.

Right now, as Paco says, the market is low speed, short range vehicles, where I can see many possibilities... but mostly not for the mass consumer market.

Tesla is taking different sales approach, their unique market proposition is speed and handling. Anyone who knows even a little knows an electric motor will outperform a gas engine on power and how fast that power comes on. It is part of why golf carts are so fun to drive. Instant torque, in fact max torque is at 0 RPM.

I know zero about Musk except that he is the Tesla CEO. I just know I have seen what he is doing back in the 1990s on so many dotcom disasters. He has to keep the hype going so the money flows. The thing is I see is that in a few years his sales will flatten. His natural market will have been reached. The early-adopters will move to something else, so if he is not getting early majority he is really sunk. Even if they do adopt, I don't know that I see profits as he keeps piling on fixed costs.

Yeah, this is how we build economies. I just see the house battery as a more viable product.

Quote: Pacomartin

It seems like a just a very high profile, but still very tiny fringe market. In 7 years it has advanced from 3% to 3.5% (and that includes hybrids). The battery operated electric vehicle is about 20% of the Hybrid and Electric Vehicle market.


Sales figures sourced from HybridCars.com and direct reports submitted by EDTA member companies.
2014 Total Hybrid (HEV) Sales 570,475 Total Vehicle Sales 16,425,286 Electric Drive Market Share 3.47%
2009 Total Hybrid (HEV) Sales 290,292 Total Vehicle Sales 10,429,014 Electric Drive Market Share 2.78%
2008 Total Hybrid (HEV) Sales 313,673 Total Vehicle Sales 13,260,747 Electric Drive Market Share 2.37%
2007 Total Hybrid (HEV) Sales 352,274 Total Vehicle Sales 11,777,314 Electric Drive Market Share 2.99%

People disparage the tiny itsy-bitsy sales numbers of EVs, and it's a fair criticism considering that EVs only made up about 1% of the 2014 market. But this is an important detail: there was no such thing as a mass market EV until the Leaf went on sale in December 2010. Prior to December 2010, you literally needed $109,000 (Tesla Roadster) if you wanted anything electric (excluding golf carts & mopeds.) Toyota's electric RAV4 was lease only (no sales) and ditto for GM's EV1. My point is that this technology is still brand new, and it could easily take a decade or more to really catch on. The first VHS VCR went on sale in 1976, but my family didn't get one until 1983. If anything, the adoption of the EV has actually been faster than that of the cell phone, (remember that beach scene with Michael Douglas in 1987?) Even 10 years after 1987, virtually no one had a cell phone. Give it time.

Quote: TheCesspit

Right now, as Paco says, the market is low speed, short range vehicles, where I can see many possibilities... but mostly not for the mass consumer market.

Possibly the central london congestion zone would create an artificial economy. Right now there is a congestion charge of £11.50 per day to drive a car into central London. Much of London has 20 mph speed limits, but 10 mph is not uncommon.

If low speed electric vehicles were exempt from the congestion charge of £11.50 per day, they would immediately make economic sense.



But artificial retirement cities are still the most likely possibility. Also vacation spots. I noticed that golf carts were a popular rental in small towns south of Cancun even though they cost as much as gasoline cars. i think a lot of people are thinking about drinking and driving, and they are much happier to do that in a golf cart.

On November 7, 2014 NYC cut the speed limit to 25 mph on residential streets (down from 30 mph). A low speed electric vehicle would be a giant sign to police that you can't be ticketed for speeding as your vehicle is incapable of exceeding 25 mph.

Quote: reno

People disparage the tiny itsy-bitsy sales numbers of EVs, and it's a fair criticism considering that EVs only made up about 1% of the 2014 market. But this is an important detail: there was no such thing as a mass market EV until the Leaf went on sale in December 2010. Prior to December 2010, you literally needed $109,000 (Tesla Roadster) if you wanted anything electric (excluding golf carts & mopeds.) Toyota's electric RAV4 was lease only (no sales) and ditto for GM's EV1. My point is that this technology is still brand new, and it could easily take a decade or more to really catch on. The first VHS VCR went on sale in 1976, but my family didn't get one until 1983. If anything, the adoption of the EV has actually been faster than that of the cell phone, (remember that beach scene with Michael Douglas in 1987?) Even 10 years after 1987, virtually no one had a cell phone. Give it time.

The difference is the both that cell phones and VHS tapes did not have various governments forcing people to buy them; the feds subsidizing them, and filled a new need. It is not "new" technology, EVs have been tried off and on for over 100 years. Range and charging have always been the main issues. I predict in 20 years they will still be major issues.

If not for the combination of subsidies and mandates, EV sales might be just 20% or less of the small numbers they are today. The "green" market has probably been filled and every person who thinks EVs are some sort of better environmental choice owns one. Though they will need to replace them, the EV must now sell on pure utility if they want the market to expand.

Quote: reno

If anything, the adoption of the EV has actually been faster than that of the cell phone, (remember that beach scene with Michael Douglas in 1987?) Even 10 years after 1987, virtually no one had a cell phone. Give it time.

First generation analog phones (1973-1992) were very expensive devices more suitable to automobiles than mobile phones. Cell phones from second generation (1992-2003) sold very quickly and by 2004 there were more cell numbers than landlines. Sometimes in the course of second generation cell phones (circa 2000), the number of landlines started to decrease.

But the advantages of a cell phone over a landline are completely obvious. An electric vehicle provides a fraction of the functionality of a gasoline vehicle at much higher cost. People pursue EV's for more esoteric goals.

If cell phones (starting 2nd generation in 1992) took 20 years to become the norm, with landlines the exception, there is no reason to believe that EV's will become the norm in 20 years. There may become a robust market for them, but they are unlikely to become the norm.

Quote: Pacomartin

Sometimes in the course of second generation cell phones (circa 2000), the number of landlines started to decrease.

In Mexico cell phones took off after two developments:

1) The carriers stopped selling the phones outright, and instead sold fixed plans for a number of months, with the phones included for "free."

2) Government mandated that the person calling a cell phone pay for the call, rather than the recipient.

The second was probably the most important. Prior to that, it was common for people to carry a pager and a cell phone. If the page justified making a cell call, fine. Or one could find a pay phone nearby. Few people took calls. After the change, you just gave people your number and they called it.

Of course rates came down, too, in time. But the "caller pays" rule helped them along.

Quote: AZDuffman

It is not "new" technology, EVs have been tried off and on for over 100 years.

AZ, you and I have sparred on this before, we're repeating ourselves. Lithium ion batteries are absolutely "new" technology, they were introduced commercially in 1991. The 1897 Morrison had a top speed of 14 mph and a 4 horsepower motor. You just can't compare the 1897 Morrison to a Tesla Model S. Moreover, the convenience of charging an EV in your own garage didn't exist in 1900, an era when just 3 percent of U.S. households had electricity. Here's the bottom line: if the 2018 Tesla Model 3 and/or 2018 Chevy Bolt fail spectacularly, (and they might!) that failure will be because EV technology in 2018 sucks, not because EV technology in 1900 sucked.

Quote: AZDuffman

If not for the combination of subsidies and mandates, EV sales might be just 20% or less of the small numbers they are today.

I agree that subsidizing the Nissan Leaf has increased sales significantly. But no one buys a $135,000 BMW i8 to get the $7,500 federal tax credit. And considering the beneficiaries of oil revenue (Iran, Russia, Syria, Venezuela, ISIS) there's a national security argument to be made for the U.S. government to subsidize the Nissan Leaf. Those U.S. Navy aircraft carriers stationed in the Persian Gulf aren't cheap, either. As for California's ZEV mandate, if the air in your hometown looked like this much of the year, maybe you'd be a bit more sympathetic to a ZEV mandate.

Quote: AZDuffman

The "green" market has probably been filled and every person who thinks EVs are some sort of better environmental choice owns one.

EVs were 1% of sales in 2014. Surely more than 1% of the U.S. population are treehuggers. In 2012, 65 million Americans voted for Obama. Is it fair to assume that perhaps 20 or 30 percent of Obama voters are treehuggers? That's 13 to 19 million Americans. It's one thing to argue that these millions of treehuggers are gullible, misguided, hypocritical, and stupid. It's quite another thing to argue that these millions of treehuggers don't even exist.

Quote: Nareed

Government mandated that the person calling a cell phone pay for the call, rather than the recipient.

They don't do that in USA, but the phone rates are not as high. América Móvil is the biggest company in Mexico by a massive margin, while communication companies are not in top ten in USA
#11 AT&T
#16 Verizon Communications

If I call from my home phone the rates are considerably higher
MEXICO (mobile) 52-1 $0.27
Mexico - Zone 1 521 $0.15
Mexico - Zone 2 522 $0.15
Mexico - Zone 3 523 $0.15
Mexico - Zone 4 - Mexico City 524 $0.22
Mexico - Zone 5 525 $0.22
Mexico - Zone 6 526 $0.22
Mexico - Zone 7 527 $0.22
Mexico - Zone 8 - Cancun, Cozumel 528 $0.22

If I pay $2.95 per month the per minute rates drop considerably
Mexico Landline 6.5¢
Mexico Mobile 23¢

Google Voice Rate per minute USD
Mexico - Landline/ Guadalajara / Mexico City/Monterrey 1¢
Mexico - Mobile 5¢

América Móvil is the largest virtual mobile network in the USA through it's subsidiary Tracfone with 25.69 million subscribers at the end of first quarter. They do not own their own broadcast towers, but rent data transmission from the big four. Being a Mexican company they have a lot of value prices on calls to Mexican mobile phones. Sprint had 57.14 million total customers compared to T-Mobile's 56.84 million,at the end of first quarter. They do own their own towers.

AT&T and Verizon are far larger, but as they are the successor companies to Bell Atlantic which was broken up in 1984, that fact is not surprising.