Gigafactory
April 13th, 2017 at 7:42:43 PM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 | The Institute for Energy Research (IER) came up with an analysis of 38 years as payback period for the Powerwall I that was released in 2015. The Powerwall II is less expensive. Tesla immediately rebutted IERs claims in part because they said that the utility numbers were fictional. I took a somewhat simpler approach, and did not try to come up with a specific payback period. Instead I said what your utility would have to do to make payback within the warranty period (give free nights and have regular prices at 14.5 kWh per hour per Powerwall II).I can make a firm statement is that no utility offers a plan this generous. So rather than state a number of years outright,it is probably impossible to have a plan that will pay back within the warranty period. In contrast one of the longest payback periods I have heard for residential system is a Geothermal Heat Pump which is usually measured in decades. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_heat_pump While the payback period may be long over the course of generations the savings could be significant, or it could immensely to resale price of a home. It's still a better deal than the Tesla stationary battery which may be discarded before it ever pays itself back.
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April 15th, 2017 at 5:52:36 AM permalink | |
AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18136 |
This is my beef with the while Tesla thing. How many of these people are out there? There are many who are math-challenged just look back to 2008 when a Prius would go for over $5,000 over sticker, when at sticker it still took 5+ years to pay back. Electricity is even harder to figure out savings time. Then the "save the planet" people never care about the mining needed to get the elements to make the batteries. But they can show them off!
This gets discussed in the prepper community. These units look really nice, but in a disaster they are just awful. The President is a fink. |
April 15th, 2017 at 1:34:20 PM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
It takes a long time to payback more efficient items with electricity savings. For example look at two window air conditioners. The more efficient one is $20 more expensive. Now at the sample rate on their website of 12 cents per kWh, the payback is 800 hours of continual use. Frigidaire 5,000 BTU Window-Mounted Room Air Conditioner $239.00 FFRE0533S1 $219.00 FFRA0522R1 http://www.frigidaire.com/Compare/?products=FFRA0522R1,FFRA0522Q1,FFRE0533S1,FFRA0511R1 That's 800 hours (which could easily take most of the summer ) to payback a mere $20. Even the mathematically challenged should realize that it is not strange that you can't payback a $5500 battery within 10 years (not even counting the $1000-$1500 installation cost). |
April 15th, 2017 at 2:45:42 PM permalink | |
DRich Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 51 Posts: 4944 |
You may be giving the general public too much credit. At my age a Life In Prison sentence is not much of a detrrent. |
April 15th, 2017 at 4:36:00 PM permalink | |
rxwine Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 188 Posts: 18633 | And something people don't talk about enough, I don't want to get tied into another entity. That's why I prefer home solar ideas over central power ideas, and also why I don't want a hydrogen cell car to replace gasoline. Hydrogen cell is probably too complex for me to maintain myself.. Electric car is more likely freedom even if it's not there at the moment. I don't think people are mentioning that enough. Why get beholden to other commercial entities? I sure as hell can't maintain a Nuclear plant either. You believe in an invisible god, and dismiss people who say they are trans? Really? |
April 15th, 2017 at 6:12:34 PM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
Yes, I do understand idealogical ideas. A Tesla battery is very useful if you want to be off the grid. I don't have anything against the batteries, but I do have a problem with this idea that they will change the planet. In reality they are a very expensive device that has almost no chance of saving you money or of reducing fossil fuel consumption. |
April 15th, 2017 at 6:22:38 PM permalink | |
Fleastiff Member since: Oct 27, 2012 Threads: 62 Posts: 7831 | As the resident expert here on being mathematically challenged, I assure you that I am in no way able to form an opinion on a five thousand dollar battery not being recoupable within ten years. My disability may have been great entertainment at times particularly to a globe trotting poker player who found my unique style of performing multiplication to be most entertaing, but I fear that many consumers would indeed have trouble calculating a payback period for the Tesla options. |
April 15th, 2017 at 6:35:21 PM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 | I think the idea is fairly simple. If I'm a millionaire who lives in an ultra expensive apartment with thousands of dollars worth of steaks and shrimp in a refrigerator that will go bad in a day if I lose power, then I think this is a great invention. If I am solely devoted to solar power no matter how much money it cost me, it is also a great idea. If I have a business that demands I have quiet backup for short periods of time or I will lose money, then the Tesla Powerwall is for me. But for everyone else, it is an overpriced toy, and the Governor of Nevada is crazy to give all those tax breaks thinking that this project will be worth $100 billion for the state. |
April 16th, 2017 at 3:00:34 AM permalink | |
Fleastiff Member since: Oct 27, 2012 Threads: 62 Posts: 7831 | I thought most people in Manhattan eat in restaurants or have gourmet items delivered. Uninterruptable power supplies are a convenience for some but a necessity for others who need availability or who simply do not want to be annoyed or distracted by such things. Cities and states have been giving tax breaks, probably unwisely, for decades. I don't know about tax breaks in Nevada. I do know that long, long ago Fort Collins, Colorado made the best decision and said We will NOT give tax breaks to lure employers here, we will build parks and roads and other infrastructure as we need to and will lure both people and employers by providing a high quality of life rather than trying to give tax breaks to employers and being too poor to afford parks, schools, courts, etc. |
April 17th, 2017 at 2:29:31 AM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
I was an undergraduate in upstate NY and power would go out regularly. The smartest thing was not to open refrigerator doors and hope food didn't go bad, but generally you went outside and enjoyed yourself, and you put on extra clothes in the winter. But my friends from NYC were affected by the 1977 blackout just before my 20th birthday. I actually don't know what percentage of Tesla Powerwall stationary batteries end up in urban apartments, but it is a good example of people who can afford such a device and could potentially make use of one. Their refrigerator is also more likely to be stuffed with expensive items. In addition most of America can open a window if the air conditioning breaks down.
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