Gigafactory

April 13th, 2017 at 7:42:43 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
The Institute for Energy Research (IER) came up with an analysis of 38 years as payback period for the Powerwall I that was released in 2015. The Powerwall II is less expensive. Tesla immediately rebutted IERs claims in part because they said that the utility numbers were fictional.

I took a somewhat simpler approach, and did not try to come up with a specific payback period. Instead I said what your utility would have to do to make payback within the warranty period (give free nights and have regular prices at 14.5 kWh per hour per Powerwall II).I can make a firm statement is that no utility offers a plan this generous. So rather than state a number of years outright,it is probably impossible to have a plan that will pay back within the warranty period.

In contrast one of the longest payback periods I have heard for residential system is a Geothermal Heat Pump which is usually measured in decades.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_heat_pump
While the payback period may be long over the course of generations the savings could be significant, or it could immensely to resale price of a home. It's still a better deal than the Tesla stationary battery which may be discarded before it ever pays itself back.

Quote: Institute for Energy Research

http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/payback-on-teslas-powerwall-battery/
How Long Does It Take to Pay Off a Tesla Powerwall?
JANUARY 5, 2016

One of the biggest problems with electricity from solar and wind power is that these sources of electricity are not reliable because of their intermittent nature. We rely on having electricity when we require its use—24/7. Anyone familiar with the third world or even developing countries knows that unreliable forms of energy are a huge impediment to modern living standards and quality of life. One suggestion to make these intermittent sources more reliable is to use batteries to store electricity when the intermittent sources are producing electricity and then use the electricity when the sun goes down or the wind stops. The issue has always been that the battery back-up is expensive, particularly with regard to the scale of the grid or cost of batteries for home use. Tesla claims that they have overcome much of these problems with its Powerwall battery.

Powerwall is a daily use battery that is produced and marketed by Tesla to provide power to homes or businesses for part of the day, off-setting some electricity costs.[1] The issue that remains is the cost. How much does Powerwall cost initially, how much does it cost to operate, how much electricity will be offset, and how many years will it take to pay back the initial capital and installation costs? These costs must be considered in order to fairly compare our current electrical system to those that government policies are promoting through their push for renewable sources of energy. This article provides answers to those questions and a tool to estimate the payback period based on local electricity costs.

Powerwall Cost and Operation

Buying a Powerwall and inverter, as well as having it installed is estimated to cost $7,340 by SolarCity[ii] (like Tesla, Elon Musk is the CEO of SolarCity). The daily use Powerwall for homes is rated at 7 kilowatt hours,[1] with round trip battery efficiency estimated at 92 percent, and inverter efficiency estimated at 95 percent. About 7.5 kilowatt hours is needed to charge the Powerwall, providing about 6.5 kilowatt hours of power once charged.

With some utilities, consumers can choose between flat-rate electricity pricing (the price is the same no matter the time or day or demand on the electricity grid) and peak-rate pricing. With peak-rate pricing, electricity rates are low during off-peak hours and higher during peak hours.

To make optimal use of Powerwall, it should be charged using lower cost off-peak electricity, then operated when peak rates are in effect. If the home or business has solar panels or wants to invest in them, Powerwall can be charged with the solar power during the day, then used to power the home in the evening, night and/or morning.

As an example, assume peak rates at $0.15 per kilowatt hour and off-peak rates at $0.06 per kilowatt hour. At the off-peak rate, it would cost $0.45 to charge the Powerwall each night. Operating the Powerwall for 6.5 kilowatt hours the next day, saves $0.98 of electricity charges. Factoring in the charging costs, saves $0.53 a day of electricity costs, or $193 a year, requiring a payback period of 38 years, which is almost 4 times the warranty period of 10 years for the Powerwall.

If solar power was used to charge the Powerwall, it would save the charging fee of $0.45 a day, making the Powerwall savings each year $358. Factoring in the installed solar panel cost of $3,570[2] for a 1.5 kilowatt system[iii], makes the payback period 31 years, still 3 times the warranty period.

According to a 2012 study, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission found that only 1 percent of U.S. residences have off-peak vs. on-peak electricity rates.[iv] If a U.S. household has a single electricity rate at say $0.12 cents per kilowatt hour, it will cost more to charge the Powerwall than it provides in electricity. In this example, it will cost the household $0.12 more a day ($44 a year) to use Powerwall than if the household purchased all its electricity directly from its utility company. In other words, the Powerwall must be charged at a low electricity rate or by a solar panel system, in order to make Powerwall economic. And, even then, the payback period for U.S. electric utility rates would be much greater than the Powerwall warranty period.

The tool below allows the user two options for determining the payback period for using Powerwall to offset electricity rates—either charging Powerwall using off-peak rates or via a solar system. Both options require the installed cost of Powerwall. The user needs to select the option, then either input the off-peak and on-peak electricity rates, or the installed cost of the solar system and the on-peak utility rate. The tool will then provide the user with the payback period. Please note that the tool does not work for a single utility rate because, as noted above, it would cost more to charge Powerwall than to purchase power from the local electric utility.


With the Obama Administration pushing policies to convert more of our electricity to intermittent renewable sources like wind and solar, it is important that the public understands the costs and tradeoffs from our current system, which in most people’s minds, works well across a wide range of demands and uses. This blog answers some of the questions of the mysteries of energy storage and serves as a tool for consumers to judge the government’s experiment and the costs that may be hidden by the hype promoted by those involved in providing “fixes” to the use of intermittent renewable energy in place of our normal, on-demand, reliable electrical system.

[1] There is a 10 kilowatt hour model for businesses to use instead of a backup generator. The cost to installers is $3,000 or $3,500 for the 7 and 10 kilowatt hour Powerwall, respectively.

[2] The $3,570 is for a 1.5 kilowatt installed system after government rebates. The cost can range between $2,000 and $6,000, depending on the quality and longevity of the system.

Gizmodo, Tesla Powerwall: A Battery for Your Home, May 1, 2015,
http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2015/05/tesla-powerwall-a-battery-for-your-home/

[ii] Lifehacker, Tesla’s Powerwall: Crunching the Numbers for Australia, May 25, 2015,
http://www.lifehacker.com.au/2015/05/tesla-powerwall-crunching-the-numbers-for-an-australian-suburban-home/

[iii] Solar Choice, 1.5 kilowatt solar system: Pricing, outputs and returns, October 18, 2012,
http://www.solarchoice.net.au/blog/1-5kw-solar-system-pricing-outputs-and-returns/

[iv] Friedman, Consumer-Friendly and Environmentally-Sound Electricity Rates for the Twenty-First Century, March 1, 2012, https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/research/pdf/Friedman_HOOP_retail_electricity_pricing_1.1.pdf
April 15th, 2017 at 5:52:36 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Pacomartin


I have no objection to ideological decisions. But Musk is selling nearly a billion dollars of these stationary batteries. They are being sold with a lot of "save the planet" panache. I just don't know how many customers understand that not only will they not save money, but they are very unlikely to make back the purchase and installation price.


This is my beef with the while Tesla thing. How many of these people are out there? There are many who are math-challenged just look back to 2008 when a Prius would go for over $5,000 over sticker, when at sticker it still took 5+ years to pay back. Electricity is even harder to figure out savings time. Then the "save the planet" people never care about the mining needed to get the elements to make the batteries. But they can show them off!

Quote:
I had a friend who lived in Manhattan during the 1977 blackout, and she said that without air conditioning or windows that open and the ability to flush the toilet she went down the stairs and braved the riots just to get outside of her former penthouse that now resembled the black hole of Calcutta.


This gets discussed in the prepper community. These units look really nice, but in a disaster they are just awful.
The President is a fink.
April 15th, 2017 at 1:34:20 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: AZDuffman
This is my beef with the while Tesla thing. How many of these people are out there? There are many who are math-challenged just look back to 2008 when a Prius would go for over $5,000 over sticker, when at sticker it still took 5+ years to pay back.


It takes a long time to payback more efficient items with electricity savings. For example look at two window air conditioners. The more efficient one is $20 more expensive. Now at the sample rate on their website of 12 cents per kWh, the payback is 800 hours of continual use.

Frigidaire 5,000 BTU Window-Mounted Room Air Conditioner
$239.00 FFRE0533S1
$219.00 FFRA0522R1
http://www.frigidaire.com/Compare/?products=FFRA0522R1,FFRA0522Q1,FFRE0533S1,FFRA0511R1

That's 800 hours (which could easily take most of the summer ) to payback a mere $20. Even the mathematically challenged should realize that it is not strange that you can't payback a $5500 battery within 10 years (not even counting the $1000-$1500 installation cost).
April 15th, 2017 at 2:45:42 PM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 51
Posts: 4944
Quote: Pacomartin
Even the mathematically challenged should realize that it is not strange that you can't payback a $5500 battery within 10 years (not even counting the $1000-$1500 installation cost).


You may be giving the general public too much credit.
At my age a Life In Prison sentence is not much of a detrrent.
April 15th, 2017 at 4:36:00 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 188
Posts: 18633
And something people don't talk about enough, I don't want to get tied into another entity. That's why I prefer home solar ideas over central power ideas, and also why I don't want a hydrogen cell car to replace gasoline. Hydrogen cell is probably too complex for me to maintain myself.. Electric car is more likely freedom even if it's not there at the moment.

I don't think people are mentioning that enough. Why get beholden to other commercial entities? I sure as hell can't maintain a Nuclear plant either.
You believe in an invisible god, and dismiss people who say they are trans? Really?
April 15th, 2017 at 6:12:34 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: rxwine
That's why I prefer home solar ideas over central power ideas,...


Yes, I do understand idealogical ideas. A Tesla battery is very useful if you want to be off the grid.

I don't have anything against the batteries, but I do have a problem with this idea that they will change the planet. In reality they are a very expensive device that has almost no chance of saving you money or of reducing fossil fuel consumption.
April 15th, 2017 at 6:22:38 PM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831
Quote: Pacomartin
. Even the mathematically challenged should realize that it is not strange that you can't payback a $5500 battery within 10 years (not even counting the $1000-$1500 installation cost).
As the resident expert here on being mathematically challenged, I assure you that I am in no way able to form an opinion on a five thousand dollar battery not being recoupable within ten years.

My disability may have been great entertainment at times particularly to a globe trotting poker player who found my unique style of performing multiplication to be most entertaing, but I fear that many consumers would indeed have trouble calculating a payback period for the Tesla options.
April 15th, 2017 at 6:35:21 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
I think the idea is fairly simple. If I'm a millionaire who lives in an ultra expensive apartment with thousands of dollars worth of steaks and shrimp in a refrigerator that will go bad in a day if I lose power, then I think this is a great invention. If I am solely devoted to solar power no matter how much money it cost me, it is also a great idea. If I have a business that demands I have quiet backup for short periods of time or I will lose money, then the Tesla Powerwall is for me.

But for everyone else, it is an overpriced toy, and the Governor of Nevada is crazy to give all those tax breaks thinking that this project will be worth $100 billion for the state.
April 16th, 2017 at 3:00:34 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831
I thought most people in Manhattan eat in restaurants or have gourmet items delivered. Uninterruptable power supplies are a convenience for some but a necessity for others who need availability or who simply do not want to be annoyed or distracted by such things.

Cities and states have been giving tax breaks, probably unwisely, for decades. I don't know about tax breaks in Nevada.

I do know that long, long ago Fort Collins, Colorado made the best decision and said We will NOT give tax breaks to lure employers here, we will build parks and roads and other infrastructure as we need to and will lure both people and employers by providing a high quality of life rather than trying to give tax breaks to employers and being too poor to afford parks, schools, courts, etc.
April 17th, 2017 at 2:29:31 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Fleastiff
I thought most people in Manhattan eat in restaurants or have gourmet items delivered.

I was an undergraduate in upstate NY and power would go out regularly. The smartest thing was not to open refrigerator doors and hope food didn't go bad, but generally you went outside and enjoyed yourself, and you put on extra clothes in the winter. But my friends from NYC were affected by the 1977 blackout just before my 20th birthday.

I actually don't know what percentage of Tesla Powerwall stationary batteries end up in urban apartments, but it is a good example of people who can afford such a device and could potentially make use of one. Their refrigerator is also more likely to be stuffed with expensive items. In addition most of America can open a window if the air conditioning breaks down.



Quote: Power Outages

NEW YORK CITY// JULY 13, 1977
A power outage in New York City pushed its residents to the brink. Frustration with a failing economy, anxiety over the at-large serial killer Son of Sam, and a sweltering summer day and night resulted in mass looting across the city. It wasn't all bad news, however; legend has it that the stealing of DJ equipment from hi-fi stores propelled DJ culture and hip hop music in the city. But the city was no stranger to being forced into darkness

NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN CANADA // NOVEMBER 9, 1965
A faulty relay at Sir Adam Beck Station on the Ontario side of Niagara Falls led to what was then the biggest power failure in U.S. history. At 5:16 p.m., the tripping of a 230-kilovolt transmission line began a domino effect resulting in a surge of power that overwhelmed transmission lines and put New York City in the dark at the height of a Tuesday rush hour. 800,000 people were reported trapped in the subway.

In addition to New York, power overloads and automatic system shutdowns affected 30 million people in New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire,Vermont, Quebec, and Ontario. 10,000 National Guardsmen and 5,000 off-duty police officers were called into service to prevent looting, although it turned out to be relatively calm and peaceful. Power was restored for most people within 13 hours.

NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND CANADA // AUGUST 14-15, 2003
It took months before the real cause of the Northeast Blackout of 2003 was finally determined. Initially, Canadian Defense Minister John McCallum blamed an outage at a nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania, which the state's Emergency Management Agency denied. What actually happened was a high-voltage power line in Northern Ohio brushed against overgrown trees, causing it to shut down. When the alarm system that would typically alert FirstEnergy Corporation failed, the incident was ignored. In the next 90 minutes, system operators tried to figure out what happened while three other lines switched off as a consequence of the first line's failure.

This started a domino effect, and by 4:05 p.m. Southeast Canada and eight Northeastern U.S. states were without power. 50 million people were inconvenienced for up to two days in what turned out to be the biggest blackout in North American history. 11 people died and there was a reported $6 billion in damages. The incident prompted the creation of a joint task force between the U.S. and Canada to minimize future blackouts.