Gigafactory

Power outages are largely inconvenient. I know one woman whose husband is on a respirator and as a hurricane approached she arranged for a second standby generator to be available to her. People with critical situations usually make some sort of preparations. I think most of the people in Florida who buy flashlights, candles, batteries, water, etc. are really going out to buy cigarettes, beer, ice and batteries.

Manhattan is unique in that many apartments feature people who to takeout or delivery services regularly though it is possible that commercial establishments might have overstocked refrigerators. Some people in Manhattan simply spent the blackout in bars by candlelight and made no attempt to trek home. Those in elevators and subway trains were unlucky of course and in some neighborhoods the fire escapes were crawling with burglars.

Terrorist fears and infrastructure vulnerability make headlines but most power outages are caused by rats, squirrels, roaches and racoons.

Batteries may not make economic sense and home generators often do not but people soldier on. I've found that in Florida as hurricanes approach the wealthy fly out of town, the poor flock to service clubs and drink and have BBQs or just stay home and take their chances.

Its quite likely that these home batteries will alter real estate prices in areas that are devoid of utilities or where utility hookups are costly. Even some municipalities are installing BOBs, Big Old Batteries, for storing electricity. Solar prices come down and efficiency increases. Solar panels no longer have to be flat but can be mounted on complex curved structures. Wind generators have extremely variable output and its best to feed them into a battery and draw current from the battery, not the wind generator.

Tesla roof to be 21.85 per sq. ft.

Quote: Fleastiff

Tesla roof to be 21.85 per sq. ft.

http://www.consumerreports.org/roofing/heres-how-much-teslas-new-solar-roof-shingles-could-cost/

$21.85 per square foot is the price of a Solar Roof derived using similar methodology, roof size, and energy costs described in Consumer Reports’ research. This price does not reflect any solar incentives. The price was calculated for a roof where 35 percent of the tiles are solar (solar tiles cost more per square foot than non-solar tiles), in order to generate $53,500 worth of electricity, which according to Consumer Reports would make a solar roof more affordable than an asphalt shingle roof.

Quote: Pacomartin

http://www.consumerreports.org/roofing/heres-how-much-teslas-new-solar-roof-shingles-could-cost/

$21.85 per square foot is the price of a Solar Roof derived using similar methodology, roof size, and energy costs described in Consumer Reports’ research. This price does not reflect any solar incentives. The price was calculated for a roof where 35 percent of the tiles are solar (solar tiles cost more per square foot than non-solar tiles), in order to generate $53,500 worth of electricity, which according to Consumer Reports would make a solar roof more affordable than an asphalt shingle roof.

Pretty simplistic comparison. No allowance for interest on $75K - $100K 20 year investment. Assuming that the system could run a typical house in California with air conditioning is probably not realistic. Using the battery system full time with it's total power output caveats in the warranty would likely bring typical life well below the 10 years used (even at 10 years he ignored the second battery pack required).

Typical green washing of a product.

First generation technologies are hard to judge.

Consider the first home computers. An Apple ][+ (not even first generation, but second), cost about $1,000 in the early 80s. You could do quite a bit with it business-wise. We used one where I worked to issue invoices, for accounting, inventory, and payroll. At the time, a computer for a business was optional, almost a luxury.

How much does a comparable PC cost today? I think you could find one for a tenth of the price, adjusted for inflation, than you'd pay in 1983.

Solar cells don't benefit from Moore's Law, though. So the drop in price and raise in efficiency won't be as dramatic.

It doesn't look like an economic sure-thing.

If you really can produce more energy than you use on a summer day, instead of storing it in a battery, you could sell it to the power company, typically at a reduced rate. They still need to pay for their infrastructure, and you still need to pay to use it, no matter which way the electricity is flowing.

That would be like getting a discount on your nighttime energy usage.

Even with that it is difficult to believe that you will make up for that huge initial outlay, which like was pointed out, might not include interest charges on your loan to install the thing.

Quote: Dalex64

It doesn't look like an economic sure-thing.

Virtually, no device that you buy is cost effective as frugal use of your energy services. Waste is the biggest issue.

Anyone who takes into account "lost opportunity costs" which can be as simple as the time value of money if it were invested in secure bonds. If you account for the time value of money you can't sell anything.

Quote: Pacomartin

. Waste is the biggest issue.

Waste is also a lifestyle issue. Not having to turn off lights, buying your watermelon pre-cut, etc are "lifestyle pennies".
Such lifestyle pennies do add up but the nuisance avoidance can be worth it.

Quote: Pacomartin

Anyone who takes into account "lost opportunity costs" which can be as simple as the time value of money if it were invested in secure bonds. If you account for the time value of money you can't sell anything.

That didn't used to be the case but most of the low fruit has already been picked. I sold lots of energy saving upgrades on electrical use. They were an easy sell when you could often have a 2 year pay back. 3 years was the maximum any business would go for. I would often close the sale by telling them they could have the upgrade for free and just pay me the savings for 5 years. A few times I they actually went for it and I made a lot more on the contract then if they had paid for it up front.

Now we have these extremely long theoretical pay backs. They are not based on anything that makes economic sense but on giving the purchaser a morally superior feeling that they are "making a difference" and saving the planet. I wouldn't have a problem with that except that they are usually dipping into my pocket with some kind of government subsidy.

Quote: kenarman

3 years was the maximum any business would go for. I would often close the sale by telling them they could have the upgrade for free and just pay me the savings for 5 years.

Geothermal heat pump never pay back in as little as 3 years, but they often take at least 10 years to payback. I used to hear 30 years for older systems, but they seem to have become more efficient. Ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) are among the most energy efficient technologies for providing HVAC and water heating.

My neighbor bought 0.68 acres Dec 12 2007 for $153,000 and built a brand new 2,400 sq foot 3 bedroom, 3 bath house with a GSHP which pushed his construction cost over $300K. The property is estimated at $317K by Zillow, so it seems that he has lost at least $150K over the last decade.

It is difficult to say how much is due to the GSHP, but he still swears that it is a solid investment and "kind to the environment".