Gigafactory

Quote: Pacomartin

Geothermal heat pump never pay back in as little as 3 years, but they often take at least 10 years to payback. I used to hear 30 years for older systems, but they seem to have become more efficient. Ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) are among the most energy efficient technologies for providing HVAC and water heating.

My neighbor bought 0.68 acres Dec 12 2007 for $153,000 and built a brand new 2,400 sq foot 3 bedroom, 3 bath house with a GSHP which pushed his construction cost over $300K. The property is estimated at $317K by Zillow, so it seems that he has lost at least $150K over the last decade.

It is difficult to say how much is due to the GSHP, but he still swears that it is a solid investment and "kind to the environment".

The "kind to the environment" is the real reason people do so many of the green upgrades. The construction industry is a very competitive place and my gut feeling on a lot of the stuff including geothermal is that if the dollars don't work then probably if we did a complete environmental cost analysis that the benefits would disappear. Every dollar of cost in equipment comes from money spent on raw materials, transportation, labour etc. Yes their is profit but in the construction and manufacturing business 10% net profit is huge. The environmental impact of many of these costs is not considered only the advertised efficiency once installed. It is like claiming an electric vehicle has no emissions and ignoring where the electricity came from.

After purchasing an all electric Chevy Bolt and dissecting it, analysts at Swiss banking giant UBS have determined that Chevrolet loses $7,400 (EBIT) on every Bolt sold.

Interestingly, UBS also predicted that Tesla will lose $2,800 on every Model 3 it sells at $35,000. But the company will break even if it can achieve an average sale price of $41,000 by upselling the customer to fancier trim with more bells & whistles. UBS thinks Tesla will easily exceed this $41,000 average.

UBS is predicting that by 2025, electric vehicles will make up about 14 percent of global car sales. French oil conglomerate Total SA has made a similar prediction: EVs will make up 15 percent to 30 percent of new vehicles by 2030.

Quote: reno

Interestingly, UBS also predicted that Tesla will lose $2,800 on every Model 3 it sells at $35,000. But the company will break even if it can achieve an average sale price of $41,000 by upselling the customer to fancier trim with more bells & whistles. UBS thinks Tesla will easily exceed this $41,000 average.

That statistic may make more sense to me if I knew how much BMW makes or loses on a BMW 3-Series sold at MSRP of $33,450 without any upselling. Do they break even?

Quote: Pacomartin

That statistic may make more sense to me if I knew how much BMW makes or loses on a BMW 3-Series sold at MSRP of $33,450 without any upselling. Do they break even?

I am sure they do. Despite the high price, there is not nearly as much extra cost to build a BMW than a Dodge as you might think.

Most of the cost is in the molds and jigs that hold the parts during the assembly-line process, the trained technicians to operate the equipment, etc. That 'next' car is not high in cost. Selling a luxury model that is on the floor can be cheaper than making an additional low end model.

Quote: reno

UBS is predicting that by 2025, electric vehicles will make up about 14 percent of global car sales. French oil conglomerate Total SA has made a similar prediction: EVs will make up 15 percent to 30 percent of new vehicles by 2030.

Current market share for EVs sales is less than 1% (actually it's 0.7% to be precise). Could the market share really increase from 0.7% to 14% in just 8 years?

Is that prediction totally bonkers?

Quote: reno

Quote: reno

UBS is predicting that by 2025, electric vehicles will make up about 14 percent of global car sales. French oil conglomerate Total SA has made a similar prediction: EVs will make up 15 percent to 30 percent of new vehicles by 2030.

Current market share for EVs sales is less than 1% (actually it's 0.7% to be precise). Could the market share really increase from 0.7% to 14% in just 8 years?

Is that prediction totally bonkers?

It would be one of the biggest shifts in automotive history. Bigger even than SUVs taking over sedans the past 20 years.

There always seems to be some person thinking people will just fall in love with EVs all of the sudden. Renault half bet the companies on the idea. Yet they remain a niche.

Quote: reno

Is that prediction totally bonkers?

Probably but remember its purpose is not to be a staid and sober analysis, its purpose is to bring funding to the industry and bring people with money to invest to UBS. Its an advertisement as much as anything else.

Quote: Fleastiff

Probably but remember its purpose is not to be a staid and sober analysis, its purpose is to bring funding to the industry and bring people with money to invest to UBS. Its an advertisement as much as anything else.

I agree that most long term predictions are advertisements. It's like saying if you want to sell commercial electric planes, that they can use all of the 5000 airports in the USA. A sober analysis would probably determine about a dozen airports which would be opened up by commercial electric planes, that are off limits to noisy jet aircraft.

To that end the government incentives, fuel prices and driving conditions in the EU are much more conducive to massive growth in EVs than in the USA. I wouldn't automatically rule out 15% of automobile sales in the EU being EVs by the year 2030.

Quote: Fleastiff

Probably but remember its purpose is not to be a staid and sober analysis, its purpose is to bring funding to the industry and bring people with money to invest to UBS. Its an advertisement as much as anything else.

Why would the French oil company Total be predicting 15 to 30% market share for EVs in 2030? From Total's perspective, it's bad news for demand for their product.

BP is predicting EVs will constitute merely 6% of automobile market share in 2035.

ExxonMobil is predicting that 10% of new car sales in the U.S. will be electric vehicles in 2040.