Upcoming Primaries

December 13th, 2015 at 3:28:11 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 677
Posts: 7752
Quote: Wizard
It is easy to say who won't win the GOP nomination, but who will? It has to be somebody. I'm hesitantly going with Marco Rubio, mainly because I can argue why everybody else won't win.


Cruz is ahead of Rubio by 2.9%. Requirements are an average of at least 3.5% nationally, or at least 4% in either Iowa or New Hampshire.As four candidates seem to be below 3.5% nationally, they must meet the second criteria. Christie pulled out of the "undercard" debate.

Candidate Change #5 #4 #3 #2 #1-#2 #1
Trump 6.4% 29.8% 24.8% 20.2% 27.8% 24.0% 23.4%
Cruz 11.3% 16.7% 9.6% 6.9% 7.4% 6.3% 5.4%
Rubio 8.4% 13.8% 11.8% 9.7% 5.4% 5.6% 5.4%
Carson 7.4% 13.2% 24.4% 19.8% 14.0% 8.9% 5.8%
Bush -7.8% 4.2% 6.0% 8.1% 9.2% 11.5% 12.0%
Fiorina 1.4% 2.7% 3.0% 8.1% 4.4% 2.2% 1.3%
Christie -0.7% 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 3.1% 3.4%
Paul -2.6% 2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 4.7% 4.8%
Kasich -1.0% 2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.6% 3.2% 3.2%
Walker 5.6% 9.4% 10.2%
Huckabee 3.6% 4.4% 5.6% 6.6%
Total 87.5% 85.6% 85.4% 87.8% 84.5% 81.5%


It's starting to look like a "brokered convention" is more and more of a possibility. By which I mean a true brokered convention where the delegates are released from their pledges. I don't mean a "near brokered convention" where a last minute deal is made.

But Trump should stop insulting his competition as he may want to make one a VP candidate in exchange for their delegates.

It's hard to believe how badly Jeb is doing.
December 13th, 2015 at 3:48:55 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 106
Posts: 10696
Quote: Pacomartin


It's hard to believe how badly Jeb is doing.


Not to me. I never liked him, even as gov.
He's pure politician, I don't believe a word
that comes from his insincere mouth.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
December 13th, 2015 at 3:56:11 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 98
Posts: 6187
Quote: Pacomartin


It's starting to look like a "brokered convention" is more and more of a possibility. By which I mean a true brokered convention where the delegates are released from their pledges. I don't mean a "near brokered convention" where a last minute deal is made.


Beyond too soon to say yet. After the first 4 states it will look very different. One thing does look like is that it will be Trump/Rubio/Cruz race. We've had three way races many times and in fact a 3 way race is fairly normal.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
December 13th, 2015 at 8:06:22 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 677
Posts: 7752
Quote: AZDuffman
Beyond too soon to say yet. After the first 4 states it will look very different. One thing does look like is that it will be Trump/Rubio/Cruz race. We've had three way races many times and in fact a 3 way race is fairly normal.


I do agree that a 3 way race is normal, but I still wouldn't call this very normal. Last two elections NH Republican primary top 3 had 79%-80% of the vote and top 5 had 96%-98% of vote.

Today you are looking at top 3 under 60%,

2012 Results
39.3% Mitt Romney 97,532 8 delegates
22.9% Ron Paul 56,848 3 delegates
16.9% Jon Huntsman 41,945 1 delegates
9.4% Newt Gingrich 23,411
9.4% Rick Santorum 23,362

2008 Results
37.1% John McCain 88,571 7 delegates
31.6% Mitt Romney 75,546 4 delegates
11.2% Mike Huckabee 26,859 1 delegate
8.6% Rudy Giuliani 20,439
7.7% Ron Paul 18,308

The big thing was the Winner Take all delegates primaries in 2012. Gingrich won all delegates in South Carolina with only 40%. Romney won all delegates in Florda with 46.4%. I was told they changed the rules so that the states can only declare Winner Take All if a candidate has 50% or more. If it was difficult last time, it will be almost impossible this primary season.
December 14th, 2015 at 7:02:20 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 132
Posts: 2950
Quote: Pacomartin
Cruz is ahead of Rubio by 2.9%.


I think the religious wing of the party is still shopping around and Cruz is the order of the day, after having second thoughts about Ben Carson. Cruz comes off to me like a used car salesman. I just can't picture him winning. Then again, it is a weak field.

I also predict that Bush will re-surge at some point. I think he has a better chance than Cruz does.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
December 15th, 2015 at 11:36:12 AM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 106
Posts: 10696
In the CBS poll today, Trump has a monster
lead, larger than Reagon had on this date
in 1979 and larger than Bush Sr in 1987.
If this were Jeb Bush, everybody would have
said the race was over 6 weeks ago.

Yet they're all saying it's way too early, and
polls are meaningless. The first caucus is in
41 days, doesn't seem all that 'early' to me.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
December 16th, 2015 at 12:01:07 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 677
Posts: 7752
Quote: Evenbob
Yet they're all saying it's way too early, and polls are meaningless. The first caucus is in 41 days, doesn't seem all that 'early' to me.


In 10 NH primaries since WWII nobody had over 40%, and in 5 out of 10 the leader in the primary lost the nomination.

I do think the media has a vested interest in keeping speculation at high levels, but I certainly don't think "meaningless" or "race over" are even possible to talk about with a straight face (regardless of candidate).

New Hampshire Primaries
2008 - John McCain* (37.1%) Mitt Romney (31.6%) Mike Huckabee (11.2%) Rudolph W. Giuliani (8.6%) Ron Paul (7.7%)
1996 - Pat Buchanan (27.2%) Bob Dole* (26.2%) Lamar Alexander (22.6) Steve Forbes (12.2%) Richard Lugar (5.2%)
1988 - George Bush* (37.8%) Bob Dole (28.6%) Jack Kemp (12.7%) Pierre S. DuPont (10.7%) Pat Robertson (9.4%)
1964 - Henry Cabot Lodge (35.5%) Barry M. Goldwater* (22.3%) Nelson A. Rockefeller (21.0%) Richard M. Nixon (16.8%)

2008 - Hillary Rodham Clinton (39.1%) Barack Obama* (36.5%) John Edwards (16.9%) Bill Richardson (4.6%)
2004 - John Kerry* (38.4%) Howard Dean (26.4%) Wesley K Clark (12.4%) John Edwards (12.0%) Joseph Lieberman (8.6%)
1992 - Paul E. Tsongas 33.2% Bill Clinton* (24.8%) Bob Kerrey (11.1%) Tom Harkin (10.2%) Jerry Brown ( 8.0%)
1988 - Michael Dukakis* ( 36.4%) Dick Gephardt (20.3%) Paul Simon (17.4%) Jesse Jackson (8.0%) Al Gore (6.9%)
1984 - Gary Hart (37.3%) Walter F. Mondale* (27.9%) John Glenn (12.0%) Jesse Jackson (5.3%) George McGovern (5.2%)
1976 - Jimmy Carter* (28.4%) Morris K. Udall (22.7%) Birch Bayh (15.2%) Fred R. Harris (10.8%) R. Sargent Shriver (8.2%)

One interesting note is that nobody ranked lower than #2 in NH has ever won the nomination. Based on polls right now#2-#5 are almost crap shoots.
January 17th, 2016 at 2:42:38 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 677
Posts: 7752
It's looking like
Iowa: Trump has a slight lead over Cruz, should be a horserace
New H: Trump for certain to win, nearly anyone's guess on Ted Cruz,Marco Rubio and John Kasich with Chris Christie having an outside nod

At the very least Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, and Rick Santorum should show some grace and withdraw at this point.

Iowa: Hillary slight lead over Sanders
New H: Sanders strong lead over Hillary

Sanders stock is likely to rise no matter the outcome. Perhaps Biden will agree to be his VP which will cement the ticket. O'Malley will hopefully withdraw at this point.

For those of who remember when people were upset about Ronald Reagan being inaugurated just 17 days before his 70th birthday, then look at these ages (@ inauguration day):
69.2 Hillary
70.6 Trump
75.4 Sanders
74.2 Biden
January 17th, 2016 at 2:53:00 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 106
Posts: 10696
Quote: Pacomartin

For those of who remember when people were upset about Ronald Reagan being inaugurated just 17 days before his 70th birthday,


That was 35 years ago, 70 is the new 65
today. In 1981 70 was old, look at the
medical advances for older people since
then.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
January 17th, 2016 at 3:48:45 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 98
Posts: 6187
IA comes down to the ground game. I don't think Trump has it. Hillary has the curse of too much money, thinks she can just buy it. Sanders people are fired up. Still a coin-flip but he sure has momentum over her. I see way more Bernie bumper stickers than Hillary ones.

Now what gets interesting in the circus that it the Hillary campaign is her legal issues. If I am thinking right and she has to drop out she could give her staff to Biden or Kerry but not pledged delegates. Meaning if she gets indicted in April them Bernie could get it all. The FBI and intel communities may well keep up the pressure as they risk their lives to get secrets and Hillary left them wide open to theft.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it