Upcoming Primaries

Bob Beckel, the Dem who has run campaigns,
says he would have advised Trump to skip the
debate because he doesn't need it. He would
get far more publicity, which is just what's
happening. What's funny is, last night FOX
talked about Trump skipping for hours. Just
now on the 6pm news, they barely mentioned
it. On CNN and MSNBC, it's all they're talking
about.

Quote: Pacomartin

Good point about RR skipping the debate. Really crushed him.

In other news Bloomberg has pledged to spend up to $1 Billion of his own money to run as an independent.

Iran decided that the USA should change Presidents and the American public agreed
At the exact moment Reagan became President, Iran released the 52 hostages.
Talk about political timing.

Quote: terapined

Iran decided that the USA should change Presidents and the American public agreed
At the exact moment Reagan became President, Iran released the 52 hostages.
Talk about political timing.

That is about how much they hated Carter for being buddies with the Shah. It was a glorious weekend, ticker-tape Superbowl just added to all of it. The USA had a great new leader and was leaving the nadir of the 1970s, even if it would take another recession t break the back of stagflation.

Well, that was embarrassing. Ailes wanted
O'Reilly to cancel his interview with Trump
and O said no way. So instead he did everything
but get down on his knees and beg Trump
to show up at the debate. He cajoled Trump,
berated him, tried to embarrass him, did
everything except say 'pretty pretty PLEASE'
be there. It was quite a spectacle, you'd think
the whole election pivoted on one stupid
debate.

Here's what will happen. In the first 5 min 70%
of viewers will change channels when they see
Trump isn't there. Watching Cruz-Rubio-Bush-
Carson etc for 2 hours would be like a sentence
a judge hands down as punishment.

Kasich will be entertaining. And I think without Trump there, unless they all insist on talking about him, there might be some value to the debate on the issues for once.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Kasich will be entertaining. And I think without Trump there, unless they all insist on talking about him, there might be some value to the debate on the issues for once.

I don't like any of them, I won't be watching.
Cruz is like fingernails on a blackboard to my
ears. He has a nasally voice and it's very
measured, like he practices sounding like
an intellectual douche. It's no wonder nobody
in congress can stand him.

Quote: Evenbob

Bob Beckel, the Dem who has run campaigns, says he would have advised Trump to skip the debate because he doesn't need it. He would get far more publicity, which is just what's happening. .

Real Clear Politics Poll Averages has Trump leading in both states
Trump Iowa=32.7% New Hampshire=33.3%
Cruz Iowa=26.9% New Hampshire=12.6%

Skipping the debate does seem to be a stroke of genius. It will be interesting to see if he skips the next debate if he wins both states.

Chris Matthews on Hardball put it best. He
said the debate last night was like one of
those weird episodes of Gunsmoke when
Matt Dillon took the week off. Meaning
Trump wasn't there for everything to
revolve around. The star was missing.

(and it was uber weird when Matt Dillon
wasn't there)

Here's a useful source for the Trump lovers and haters: all his twitter insults on one page. Need to know what he's said about a subject? You can find it here:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/28/upshot/donald-trump-twitter-insults.html?_r=3

The poll spread of the top 4 candidates in Iowa is roughly the same as in 2008 . The tail is longer. But Trump is polling not much lower than the lead candidate (Huckabee) in 2008. The Republican Party does not have minimum requirements for a percent of votes (unlike New Hampshire).

Trump : 30.4%
Cruz : 24.2%
Rubio :15.2%
Carson : 8.8%
Bush : 4.0%
Paul : 3.2%
Kasich : 2.6%
Huckabee : 2.5%
Christie : 2.4%
Fiorina : 2.4%
Santorum : 1.0%


2008 candidate : poll-final (delegates)
Mike Huckabee : 32% - 34.6% (17)
Mitt Romney : 26% -25.19% (12)
John McCain : 13% -13.03% (3)
Fred Thompson : 9%- 13.39% (zero)
Ron Paul : 9% - 9.93% (2)
Rudy Giuliani : 5% - 3.44% (zero)

Huckabee did slightly better than polled, and Romney a little worse. Fred Thompson did much better than polled in popular vote, but received no delegates.


2012 candidate : final (delegates)
Rick Santorum 24.56% (zero)
Mitt Romney 24.53% (6)
Ron Paul 21.43% (22)
Newt Gingrich 13.30% (zero)
Rick Perry 12,557 10.33% (zero)
Michele Bachmann 4.98% (zero)