Yet another aviation thread.

I think Boeing is about to do it again.

Word on the new, clean-slate plane, dubbed the 797, is hopeful. Very likely it will be twin-aisle, and carry a number of passengers in between the capacities of the 737 MAX 10 and the 787-8, with a range also in between those two.

That's all to the good, and a very necessary follow-on to the 757/767.

But they don't seem to be thinking about the next generation narrow body.

They really should.

By numbers, narrow bodies are the big sellers, even if they're not as "sexy" as wide bodies. And as they are increasingly being used in transatlantic routes, they'll gro even bigger in sales.

The 737 design is 50 years old. and it's played out. the MAX 10 is about as far as the design can be taken, absent some revolutionary changes in engine design (such as packing in much more thrust in a smaller engine).

So while the 797 si needed, so is a new narrow body. I know working on two designs at once is waaaaaaaaay too costly and Boeing won't ever do it (and that's another fault of consolidation). But they risk a smaller firm like Bombardier, COMAC or Embraer beating them to it.

And 10-15 years from now, they won't even be able to embiggen the 737 any more.

I suppose Airbus will rest on its sales champion laurels, lazily counting the orders come in. But the A320 design is almost 30 years old. And while it's less limited than the 737's, it will also fall short eventually.

Quote: Nareed

But they don't seem to be thinking about the next generation narrow body.
They really should. By numbers, narrow bodies are the big sellers, even if they're not as "sexy" as wide bodies. And as they are increasingly being used in transatlantic routes, they'll gro even bigger in sales.

The so called "middle of market" B797 would seat between 220 and 270 passengers for flights of up to 5,200 nautical miles, or just over 10 hours. Boeing believes there could be a market for more than 4,000 such aircraft over 20 years starting around 2025 when the 797 would first fly with airlines. The jet would fill a gap between Boeing's single-aisle 737 workhorse and its advanced long range 787.

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Smaller narrowbody market
Bombardier has received Orders for 118 CS100s and 242 CS300s. There is plenty of competition on this size plane expected from China and Russia.

The equivalent Boeing jet, (737 Max7) is still stuck at 50 orders from three airlines that are all very old. I have said that I doubt that this variant will ever be built.
December 11, 2014 Canada Jetlines 5
September 26, 2013 WestJet 15
December 13, 2011 Southwest Airlines 30

Now there are 3,649 orders for the large 737Max planes, but perhaps Boeing is seeing it's future in wide body aircraft.

Quote: Pacomartin

Now there are 3,649 orders for the large 737Max planes, but perhaps Boeing is seeing it's future in wide body aircraft.

As they're not even finished with the MAX line, they obviously can't begin a new clean-sheet narrow body design. But they should be thinking about it. The 797 is slated for entry into service around the mid-2020s, which seems optimistic. By then the MAX, and the A320/1neo, will be showing their age. By the time the 797 debuts, Boeing should be in early buzz about the new narrow body design.

By then I'll be complaining about the age of the 777 :)

So what is this current spat about Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Al Jassera going to do to the 'market' for airplanes?

Quote: Paul Thompson 11/16/14

Boeing also came out this week and said there will be an all new narrowbody replacement on the market for its 737 by the year 2030. Boeing's CEO Jim McNerney said this week that the company is working on a clean-sheet replacement for the 737. He said, "By 2030, we will have a new airplane." The next plane will be slightly larger than the current 737 (hopefully in width) but that the overall shape won't change dramatically.

Historical Timeline
Bombardier appointed Gary Scott on 8 March 2004 to evaluate the creation of a New Commercial Aircraft Program. The Board of Directors authorized marketing the aircraft on 15 March 2005, seeking firm commitments from potential customers.On 31 January 2006, Bombardier announced that market conditions couldn't justify the launch of the program, and that the company would reorient CSeries project efforts, team and resources to regional jet and turboprop aircraft. The first flight was on 16 September 2013, and 8 aircraft have been delivered so far.

So Bombardier had roughly a 9 year timeline from evaluation to first flight. And that was with one year when all work basically stopped.

But Bombardier's new aircraft seems to have effectively killed the Boeing 737 Max-7 program as well as the Airbus A319neo. Both programs have only 50 orders apiece and no deliveries so far.

So by delaying the clean sheet 737 program for another 13 years that is a lot of time for the new competitors to develop larger narrowbodies.

737 MAX 7 - 138 ( 8J + 130Y) to 172 max | 50 orders BOMBARDIER COMPETITION
737 MAX 8 - 162 (12J + 150Y) to 200 max | 2,066 orders
737 MAX 9 - 178 (16J + 162Y) to 220 max | 202 orders
737 MAX 10 - 188 to 230 max HYPOTHETICAL WITH NO ORDERS TAKEN
Nonspecific 737 orders 1,381

I agree with Nareed. In the next dozen years we may see Bombardier and Embraer as a powerhouse manufacturers.

Quote: Pacomartin

737 MAX 10 - 188 to 230 max HYPOTHETICAL WITH NO ORDERS TAKEN

Actually there were several orders at the Paris Air Show. Many, if not most, were conversions from the MAX 9

Quote:

I agree with Nareed. In the next dozen years we may see Bombardier and Embraer as a powerhouse manufacturers.

I like your reasoning better.

The thing is Bombardier is in the razor's edge between success and insolvency. Further bailouts by government will make for fierce, messy trade disputes. It would be the time to develop a next generation narrow body to compete directly with Boeing's and Airbus' bets sellers, but who knows.

That still leaves Embraer and COMAC.

I wonder if EU rules and agreements with the US and Canada would allow, say, Swiss, to fly from Zurich to Ireland to NYC or Toronto on a narrow body.

It's exciting to think what such Norwegian-like fares would do to the transatlantic market. But it would also means another segment of travel is about to become miserable for 98% of travelers.

Scroll down to the last photo in this link: https://airwaysmag.com/paris-air-show/photos-commercial-planes-2017-paris-air-show/ and you'll find an Interjet Gulfstream 550. It has an Interjet logo, and the registration XA-MAV is set in Mexico (XA is the prefix for all Mexican commercial aircraft, private aircraft are XB).

I wonder what they use it for. I assume is to fly executives around, maybe also tech teams when needed? he photo is from the Paris Air Show.

Quote: Nareed

I wonder what they use it for. I assume is to fly executives around, maybe also tech teams when needed? he photo is from the Paris Air Show.

You could probably follow it on flightradar24 and see where it goes, but Interjet is a private company. But it is almost certainly for corporate executives. What is the point of owning an airline if you don't have a private jet.


Private Gulfstream Aerospace G V SP Gulfstream G550 XA MAV at Malaga LEMG


REGISTRATION DETAILS FOR XA-MAV (PRIVATE OPERATOR) GULFSTREAM G550-Serial 5393 28/08/13 Active
Comments: replacement for Falcon 2000 c/n 149

Quote: Pacomartin

You could probably follow it on flightradar24 and see where it goes, but Interjet is a private company. But it is almost certainly for corporate executives. What is the point of owning an airline if you don't have a private jet.

It does seem odd that an airline would have a private jet. But it also kind of makes sense. It would keep you from buying passage with the competition, for one thing, and it helps in not bumping passengers off busy flights. Still, I wonder now whether Delta or Lufthansa or others also have small fleets of executive jets.

I assume it would also allow you to send mechanics somewhere in a hurry.

Quote: Nareed

I assume it would also allow you to send mechanics somewhere in a hurry.

Mechanics and spare parts. Often 'first line' spares and test equipment are dispatched but sometimes a problem is more complex and additional equipment and techs (and relief pilots) are needed if a breakdown is geographically remote from maintenance facilities.

Its not some luxurious toy for executives, its a working plane that saves the company money.