Thresholds in upcoming Republican Primaries

Many of the Republican primaries do not have a "winner take all" but do have a threshold for proportional division. For instance New Hampshire has a 10% threshold to be eligible for assignation of delegated. If polls are any predicter than Rubio, Kasich and Cruz will each get 1 delegate with the remainder going to Trump.

30.4% Donald Trump
12.8% Marco Rubio
11.2% John Kasich
11.0% Ted Cruz
9.2% Chris Christie
8.4% Jeb Bush
4.2% Rand Paul
3.4% Ben Carson

But many other primaries have much higher thresholds of 13% or even 20%. These could potentially remove all the delegates except Trump, effectively giving him a winner take all even though the primary is actually proportional. I don't think that when they were putting these rules together they expected a case where only one candidate was above the threshold.

The unassigned delegates go to winner

Delegates	2012	Vote %	Proportion of 12
7	Mitt Romney	39.30%	4.72
3	Ron Paul	22.90%	2.75
2	Jon Huntsman	16.90%	2.03
	unassigned to winner	20.90%	2.51
	2008
7	John McCain	37.71%	4.53
4	Mitt Romney	32.17%	3.86
1	Mike Huckabee	11.44%	1.37
	unassigned to winner	18.68%	2.24
	based on polls
8	Donald Trump	30.40%	3.65
2	Marco Rubio	12.80%	1.54
1	John Kasich	11.20%	1.34
1	Ted Cruz	11.00%	1.32
0	Chris Christie	9.20%	below threshold
0	Jeb Bush	8.40%	below threshold
0	Rand Paul	4.20%	below threshold
0	Ben Carson	3.40%	below threshold
	unassigned to winner	34.60%	4.2

Notice that I gave two delegates to Marco Rubio based on rounding proprtion of 1.54 , so obviously that could easily be one delegate.

So based on threshold and proportionality rules, Trump could end up with more delegates despite having a smaller percentage of the popular vote in the previous two primaries.

I predict a lot of dropouts after Nevada. My prediction is the final four will be Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush and it will get there not long after Nevada. The most iffy part of this prediction is Bush -- he might drop out before the final four.

Quote: Wizard

The most iffy part of this prediction is Bush -- he might drop out before the final four.

But I wouldn't bet against Trump playing the real long term game. He may be less incendiary for Trump to choose as a VP than Cruz. Trump may actually be genuinely worried about the lawsuit against Cruz about "natural born". Or there is even the possibility that Trump chooses Cruz and the lawsuit is successful.

There have been a total of 1963 people who have been or are Senators. Had the "natural born" criteria been applied to Senators, there would be some legal cases resolved by now. But since it has only been applied to the President (and presumably the Vice President) the definition is the subject of much speculation, but it has never been tried in court. So there is no case law.

In any case, being Trump's VP candidate may not be the worst thing for Jeb Bush. Trump could get impeached, or he could get bored of the presidency in four years and decide to go back to making money. I think if Jeb Bush drops out early in this race, then he is finished for politics forever.

Quote: Pacomartin

In any case, being Trump's VP candidate may not be the worst thing for Jeb Bush.

Bush truly hates Trump, he would never
do it. Trump will have somebody who
never hogs the spotlight, so it won't be
Cruz. Rubio, maybe. That would make
sense.

Quote: Evenbob

Bush truly hates Trump, he would never do it.

Well it's not a birthday party. Your choice of VP may well determine the outcome of the election. Don't forget that Trump probably won't have the necessary delegates to get nominated. He will have to make a choice that will secure him the delegates.

A lot goes into the selection that is above personal feelings.

Quote: Pacomartin

Well it's not a birthday party. Your choice of VP may well determine the outcome of the election.

Nobody likes Bush, he would never be an
asset to anybody. He's an overgrown frat
boy from a rich family, he has a spoiled
brat rich boy attitude. I've always had an
intense dislike for him.

Would any of those three want to be a VP under Trump?

I can see Trump choosing outside that group. Maybe Bloomberg, Christie, or Giuliani.

Quote: Evenbob

Bush truly hates Trump, he would never
do it. Trump will have somebody who
never hogs the spotlight, so it won't be
Cruz. Rubio, maybe. That would make
sense.

I was going to say this (the part about Bush, anyway). I almost never say "never", but in this case, never. Bush doesn't "want" to be President; he's driven by duty and family history (and ego), not by the power-hunger and ambition most of the others have. He doesn't personally need to be President, and that's the "fire" he doesn't have that Trump keeps referring to.

FWIW, that's the difference in Bernie now vs. when he started, too; he wanted to be heard, and to force the conversation to the left, rather than letting Hillary position as a centrist alternative and downplay the far-left demands. He thought he was going to get to talk for a few months and then gracefully bow out and support her. But about 6 weeks ago or so, he started to believe in himself, and he's different now that he has the "fire".

As to VP, if Rubio's not the nominee, I think he's a lock for VP. And he'll take it no matter who the top of the ticket is. You know it's a skewed contest when people are calling Rubio the "Establishment" alternative. Rubio ran as a Tea Party Rep in the primary here during the backlash election of 2010 and knocked out a popular sitting Republican Governor (Charlie Crist) because of his support of TARP (ironically, a Bush/Republican program that worked but angered conservatives, who have since erroneously blamed Obama for it). Crist, pushed to the middle, withdrew from the primary before the vote, resigned the party and ran as an Independent. Rubio has been my non-working Senator ever since; Sarah Palin with a tan. And now people think he should be Peter Principled up the ladder yet again. SMH. The only good thing about Rubio is he had to declare one or the other, so he's giving up his (vacant) Senate seat by law.

Quote: DRich

Would any of those three want to be a VP under Trump?
I can see Trump choosing outside that group. Maybe Bloomberg, Christie, or Giuliani.

Once again, I don't think it is a question of likes or dislikes. I think it is all about winning the election. A double team of billionaires seems unlikely.

=============================
Back to my original post, perhaps I can make my point clearer. Many primaries (like NH) proportion votes by the winning percentage plus unassigned percentage. Normally, the unassigned percentage is small, but using poll numbers it could actually be larger this year than the percent won by the victor.

total percent =percent you win +unassigned percentage
2008 John McCain : 37.71% + 18.68% = 56.39% (McCain got 7 out of 12 delegates for New Hampshire)
2012 Mitt Romney : 39.30% + 20.90% = 60.20% (Romney got 7 out of 12 delegates for New Hampshire)
2016 Donald Trump: 30.40%+ 34.60% = 65.00% (Trump could get 8 or 9 out of 12 delegates for New Hampshire)

If this is repeated for primary after primary, Trump could surprise people by getting the needed delegates for the nomination.

In NH the unassigned percentage has not been above 21% since 1952 (for Republicans)

unassigned	Year	Winner	Percentage	Runner up	Percentage	Candidate over 10%	Percentage	Candidate over 10%	Percentage
34.60%	1984	Donald Trump	30.40%	Marco Rubio	12.80%	John Kasich	11.20%	Ted Cruz	11.00%
20.90%	2012	Mitt Romney	39.30%	Ron Paul	22.90%	Jon Huntsman	16.90%
20.10%	2008	John McCain	37.10%	Mitt Romney	31.60%	Mike Huckabee	11.20%
15.60%	1980	Ronald Reagan	49.60%	George Bush	22.70%	Howard Baker	12.10%
12.60%	1972	Richard Nixon	67.60%	Paul McCloskey,	19.80%
11.80%	1996	Pat Buchanan	27.20%	Bob Dole	26.20%	Lamar Alexander	22.60%	Steve Forbes	12.20%
11.60%	1968	Richard Nixon	77.60%	Nelson Rockefeller	10.80%
10.90%	1952	Dwight Eisenhower	50.40%	Robert Taft	38.70%
10.70%	1960	Richard Nixon	89.30%
10.30%	1992	George H. Bush	53.20%	Patrick Buchanan	36.50%
10.20%	1988	George H. Bush	37.80%	Bob Dole	28.60%	Jack Kemp	12.70%	Pierre DuPont	10.70%
8.20%	2000	John McCain	49.00%	George W. Bush	30.20%	Steve Forbes	12.60%
4.40%	1964	Henry Lodge	35.50%	Barry Goldwater	22.30%	Nelson Rockefeller	21.00%	Richard Nixon	16.80%
2.60%	1976	Gerald Ford	49.40%	Ronald Reagan	48.00%
1.10%	1956	Dwight Eisenhower	98.90%
0.00%	2004	George W. Bush	100.00%
0.00%	1984	Ronald Reagan	100.00%

Only candidates that met the 10% threshold are listed. There have been 1,2,3 or 4 such candidates.

With three contenders dropped out and the field down to 8, the lower level candidates are creeping above the 10% threshold.

Now it looks like Rubio & Kasich will get 2 delegates apiece, while Cruz & Bush will get 1 delegate. That leaves 6 for Donald Trump.

Donald will have 13 total delegates including Iowa, Cruz and Rubio will be tied at 9 with the rest of the field at 3 or less. There is winner take all component of South Carolina, so the Donald should have a big league before Super Tuesday.

These 8 candidates may all still be in the race on Super Tuesday where the inclusion thresholds are much higher. Also there are almost 500 delegates at stake in states with inclusion thresholds. So we may still find Donald having a much higher delegate count than Romney 4 years ago.