NASA says it will build quiet supersonic passenger jet

April 1st, 2016 at 3:42:10 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: AZDuffman
Not so much two companies, two divisions. Think Oldsmobile and Buick. The international division would try to be a high-service division and rival international flag carriers. The domestic would give the cheap service Americans have come to accept.


The American Pilot's Union strike in 1997 was caused by the introduction of regional jets, and the decision by American airlines to put them under the American Eagle banner along with the turboprop. Pilots foresaw that regional jets would continue to increase in size and range, and that there position would continue to erode over the years.

The current limit of 74 seats for an Express jet has to be coming under severe strain, as Embraer and Bombardier are producing larger planes. Now we have the low cost Russian planes of about 100 seats.

I think the pilots will resist any further corporate divisions, as they will perceive it as another attack on their salaries. That is why I think they will just have to lease out the business to an existing airline. I think of Southwest since they are not currently competing on the lucrative transoceanic international flights.

From website 112 USA airports are served by United Airlines mainline.
I created this table from Sept 2015 data (which was the latest available).

United % - Airport - United cumulative % of domestic seats
12.90% ORD 12.90%
10.78% IAH 23.69%
10.47% SFO 34.15%
9.92% DEN 44.07%
8.64% EWR 52.71%
6.32% LAX 59.04%
4.16% IAD 63.20%

2.66% BOS 65.86%
2.59% LAS 68.46%
1.98% MCO 70.44%
1.94% SEA 72.38%
1.68% SAN 74.06%
1.62% HNL 75.67%
1.53% LGA 77.20%
1.22% PDX 78.42%
1.12% CLE 79.53%
1.05% PHX 80.59%
1.05% AUS 81.63%
0.96% TPA 82.60%
0.91% SNA 83.51%
0.86% DCA 84.37%
0.81% PHL 85.18%
0.79% MSY 85.97%
0.76% JFK 86.73% United Airlines discontinued operations from JFK on October 24, 2015.
0.73% BWI 87.47%
0.71% FLL 88.18%
0.70% ATL 88.88%
0.70% MSP 89.58%
0.60% DFW 90.18%
0.55% SAT 90.73%
0.52% PIT 91.25%
0.49% SMF 91.75%
0.45% MIA 92.20%

The table goes on for another 80 airports which handle 8% of United's business. My question is if you look at (0.71% FLL) and (0.45% MIA) then hypothetically what if mainline operations are dropped at Miami.

Fort Lauderdale routes
United Airlines Chicago–O'Hare, Denver, Houston–Intercontinental, Newark, San Francisco Seasonal: Cleveland (LAX/IAD missing)
United Express none

Miami routes
United Airlines Houston–Intercontinental, Newark Seasonal: Chicago–O'Hare, Denver Charter: Havana
United Express Houston–Intercontinental, Chicago–O'Hare, Seasonal: Newark

The easiest way to downsize (which is done more often at small airports) is to just have United Express operations. But Express planes, are no bigger than the Embraer E-175 with 76 seats (12/16/48). United Express, by virtue of pilot's union agreement, is forbidden to fly the Embraer E-190 which can handle 106 passengers in 2-class, standard configuration.

Another possibility is the collapse of the current pilot's agreement, and United Express being expanded to include all narrow body aircraft and take over the entire domestic routes. Pilot's say this outcome is impossible.

Now the question is how much money would United save by not having any infrastructure at 80 airports?
April 2nd, 2016 at 1:02:07 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
JBLU may be expanding its wings and getting an international footprint.

Someone there reading the thread?
The President is a fink.
April 2nd, 2016 at 3:44:43 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
They look like compatible fleets (JBLU and VA).

JBLU
130+ 12 Airbus A320
27+ 2 Airbus A321
60+3 Embraer ERJ-190

Virgin America
10 Airbus A319
50 Airbus A320

Alaska Air
153+4 Boeing 737
5 Canadair CRJ-700
7 Embraer ERJ-170
April 2nd, 2016 at 4:09:10 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Pacomartin
They look like compatible fleets (JBLU and VA).

JBLU
130+ 12 Airbus A320
27+ 2 Airbus A321
60+3 Embraer ERJ-190


I think the network is better suited to JBLU. Would also hate to see that great tail of AK be changed.

Wonder why this all of the sudden? Owners of VA realize aviation is a plain awful biz and sell when getting is good?
The President is a fink.
April 2nd, 2016 at 6:41:38 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Virgin America began operations August 8, 2007 while Jet Blue began operations in August 1998. But VA is only a fraction of the size of Jet Blue (basically the size of JBLU international business).

VA total operations 9 months 2015 (domestic and international) 5,142,970 passengers
Jet Blue international operations 9 months of 2015 = 4,713,944 passengers and domestic operations 21,464,644 passengers
Alaska Air international operations 9 months of 2015 = 1,085,263 passengers and domestic operations 16,078,730 passengers

Quote: AZDuffman
Owners of VA realize aviation is a plain awful biz and sell when getting is good?


Probably. I think that Virgin Atlantic just overshadowed the profit of Virgin America.
April 2nd, 2016 at 7:23:56 PM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 73
Posts: 11786
Quote: Pacomartin
Virgin America began operations August 8, 2007 while Jet Blue began operations in August 1998. But VA is only a fraction of the size of Jet Blue (basically the size of JBLU international business).

Probably. I think that Virgin Atlantic just overshadowed the profit of Virgin America.


I sell some B6 (JBLU) , hardly any Virgin America
I have sold some Virgin Australia
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
April 2nd, 2016 at 7:57:29 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: AZDuffman
I think the network is better suited to JBLU. Would also hate to see that great tail of AK be changed.


It is reported that Alaska Air is the winner. It seems that Virgin America was leasing all but 8 aircraft, so Alaska is just taking over the leases.
10 Airbus A319 8.5 Years
50 Airbus A320 5.9 Years
April 8th, 2016 at 4:59:37 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Pacomartin
It is reported that Alaska Air is the winner. It seems that Virgin America was leasing all but 8 aircraft, so Alaska is just taking over the leases.
10 Airbus A319 8.5 Years
50 Airbus A320 5.9 Years


A few things happened here-

It appears jetBlue may have won by losing as AK may have really overpaid. AK has jumped to be the largest non-trunk carrier in the USA. I have to wonder on this. Yes, "size breeds success" in the industry, but nobody ever did really good being the largest of the small or the smallest of the large (ask USAir.)

I read in a story that JBLU may be trying to buy Hawaii Airlines. Unless there is good Asia business I see that as a total disaster as CONUS-HI is a magnet for leisure travelers using their FF miles. If JBLU has cash burning a hole the better course may be to lock up some cheap oil production for the next price spike?
The President is a fink.
April 8th, 2016 at 5:24:47 PM permalink
beachbumbabs
Member since: Sep 3, 2013
Threads: 6
Posts: 1600
Quote: AZDuffman
A few things happened here-

It appears jetBlue may have won by losing as AK may have really overpaid. AK has jumped to be the largest non-trunk carrier in the USA. I have to wonder on this. Yes, "size breeds success" in the industry, but nobody ever did really good being the largest of the small or the smallest of the large (ask USAir.)

I read in a story that JBLU may be trying to buy Hawaii Airlines. Unless there is good Asia business I see that as a total disaster as CONUS-HI is a magnet for leisure travelers using their FF miles. If JBLU has cash burning a hole the better course may be to lock up some cheap oil production for the next price spike?


Hawaiian would be a complicated purchase for anybody. I would give JBU credit for trying, but...they're not going to want it, I don't think. It's a very volatile commuter for the most part, island-hopping about 90% of their flight legs, some of it non-radar, very high cycle rate on the airframes, heavy maintenance costs, very high gas prices (almost double CONUS), complex subsidy agreements with the state (no practical way to get from island to island other than flying as ferries are dangerous and not run) so ticket prices are very strange and depend on your address and heritage along with all the other ticketing factors. CONUS and Asia pax are very expensive tickets, inter-island all over the place. Jobs protected for native pilots/cabin attendants/rampers/operations, benefits complicated by State of HI healthcare requirements, and overall the Island Way of life causes performance issues with all CONUS airlines who fly there.

It's really a one-off among US airlines. Many of their listed overseas flights are actually code-shares flown by partners; they mostly do the grinding short-hops, but do run a few HNL-overseas themselves.
Never doubt a small group of concerned citizens can change the world; it's the only thing ever has
May 15th, 2016 at 8:04:48 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Icelandair has the biggest fleet of B757s outside of the USA fleets


Icelandair flies to 39 cities in 16 countries. Only 6 destinations are outside of the 5000 km circle.

RKV ANC 330° (NW) 344° (N) 3,385 mi
RKV YVR 305° (NW) 319° (NW) 3,555 mi
RKV MCO 256° (W) 270° (W) 3,556 mi
RKV DEN 284° (W) 298° (NW) 3,585 mi
RKV SEA 303° (NW) 317° (NW) 3,634 mi
RKV PDX 302° (NW) 316° (NW) 3,750 mi


Icelandair has the following current fleet
25 Boeing 757-200 : 183 seats

Icelandair has the following 16 airplanes on order.
9 Boeing 737 MAX 8 : 153 seats
7 Boeing 737 MAX 9 : 172 seats

Although the 737 max has an advertised range of 4045 miles, I doubt that Icelandair will use it on these 6 longer routes as they may not make the distance every day and require technical stops to refuel.

Aussie, what is your opinion on the so called "middle of market" airplane, sometimes called the B757 replacement? Do you think it will happen?


Personally, I think that Boeing will view it as a possibility to sell more of the smaller Dreamliners.
I understand that the Dreamliner project may not break even with over 1100 orders
787-8 435
787-9 546
787-10 162
Dreamliner 1,143 orders