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The Third Party Candidate
| May 7th, 2016 at 9:43:05 AM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 | I am seeing more and more articles about a third party candidacy. Now that the "brokered convention" is off the table, there are more and more people saying that the GOP is terminal, and a new central right party should develop. Often the author feels that Trump is a lost cause and this election is as good a time as any to start. The world's richest politician, Michael Bloomberg, has a fortune that makes Trump's look small. He may be the only man with the resources to go to battle this late in the game. But it got me thinking about third party candidates in general. Most of them are known for how they threw the election to one candidate. Teddy Roosevelt got Woodrow Wilson elected, Ross Perot got Bill Clinton elected, and Ralph Nader got GW Bush elected. Although Ralph Nader received less than 3% of the popular vote, the election between Bush and Gore was incredibly close. Bush won 271 electoral college votes, only 1 above the required number to win. Bush had 7000 more votes than Gore in New Hampshire, while Nader took 22,000 votes. Also Nader took 100K votes in Florida. It is amazing to think if but for Ralph Nader we might now be coming off 6 straight terms of Democratic Presidents. When Bush won in 2004 he made a loud speech about having political capital that he was going to spend. In reality, he lost New Hampshire, but picked up Iowa and New Mexico, meaning he was ahead by only one more state than in 2000. Republican Optimists point out that many battleground states had huge turnouts for the Republican primaries of 2016 compared to 2012. These numbers may indicate an enthusiasm for the general election that will allow Trump to win For instance, Florida and Virginia far exceeded the 2012 turnout. 2016 Florida Trump 1,077,221 Cruz 403,640 Rubio 636,653 Kasich 159,412 2012 Florida Romney 776,159 Gingrich 534,121 Totals 1,672,634 2016 Virginia Trump 355,960 Cruz 173,193 Rubio 327,042 2012 Virginia Romney 158,119 Ron Paul 107,451 Do you think a third party candidate will emerge? |
| May 7th, 2016 at 10:54:38 AM permalink | |
| Evenbob Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 146 Posts: 25011 | They have to register in all 50 states by a certain date and the date is past in some states already. In other states it's almost here and they have nobody picked, no political machine behind them, and no money to do it. The sole purpose would be to defeat Trump and elect Hillary anyway. If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose. |
| May 7th, 2016 at 10:56:26 AM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 23, 2012 Threads: 239 Posts: 6095 |
No question Perot took more from Bush than from Clinton, but I think Clinton still would have won without him.
No. At least no serious one. By serious, I mean anybody getting 1% or more of the popular vote. However, I wouldn't lay a big price on it. A third party candidate from the left is also possible. Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber |
| May 7th, 2016 at 11:06:31 AM permalink | |
| terapined Member since: Aug 6, 2014 Threads: 73 Posts: 11791 |
No Republicans against Trump know their is no way they can attract votes from his small but intense base Its going to be a landslide He's offended Hispanics and Women "I'm going to build a wall and Mexico will pay for it" Its absurd, a total lie and offensive to Hispanics. When it comes to Hispanics, they are no different then any other ethnic group Some are criminals, most are hardworking people. Its that way with all ethnic groups His comment about Mexicans crossing the border are rapists and criminals Highly offensive to Hispanics because Hispanics know the reality that just like any other ethnic group, most are hard working. There are some criminals, but no more then any other group. Due to these insults, Trump will lose FL North FL votes right, South FL votes left Central FL , I4 Tampa Orlando corridor determines how FL swings Central FL is becoming more Hispanic The only battleground state Clinton needs is FL which is becoming more hispanic Trump needs to win just about all the battleground states Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World" |
| May 7th, 2016 at 11:15:12 AM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18209 |
I see it as likely to come from the left as from the right, but I do not see it at all. As has been pointed out, very late in the game to get on ballots. It could happen back-door with a candidate being say the Conservative line in NY and a Green Party line in another state. That would be really threading a needle. Nader IIRC took some of Perot's infrastructure in 2000 that was left from 1996. Barely 180 days to the election, and nobody really has enough push. The GOP will be remade by Trump. Too many are sick of how the GOP won big in 2010 and 2014 to just turn around and give Obama whatever he wanted. They are too tired of an attitude of, "Let Obama/Hillary/Whoever win, then people will see their mistake and we then win big" for it never to happen. Too tired of nominating whoevers "turn" it is to run for POTUS. I do not see a new party as when the GOP replaced the Whigs. It will just be a cleaning out, as happens every generation. The "lost cause" thing makes me chuckle. Trump went from some kind of fringe thing to taking the nomination ahead of 16 others. He gets more energy than anyone in memory from the GOP. He is going against a candidate with huge negatives and who may be on trial by the election. If it was the Super Bowl where the Patriots got that first field goal against the Bears the leaders of the GOP would consider the game lost. And that is why Trump caught fire. He thinks like a winner, they are thinking like losers. The President is a fink. |
| May 7th, 2016 at 11:23:27 AM permalink | |
| terapined Member since: Aug 6, 2014 Threads: 73 Posts: 11791 |
Short memory Palin And we know how that ended :-) Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World" |
| May 7th, 2016 at 11:26:59 AM permalink | |
| Evenbob Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 146 Posts: 25011 |
Trump is already hitting Hillary as the enabler for Bill's sexual criminality. Believe it or not, a lot of people under 30 don't even know the Clinton's sordid past and they have a rude awakening coming. If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose. |
| May 7th, 2016 at 11:57:22 AM permalink | |
| terapined Member since: Aug 6, 2014 Threads: 73 Posts: 11791 |
Too funny, the old conservative playbook is to make sex offensive Forget the issues, its all about how sex is offensive LOL its 2016, not the 1950's Millennials have no problem with gay sex They support LGBT rights Transgender in a bathroom of their choice is no biggie Its going to be a landslide :-) I'm giddy Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World" |
| May 7th, 2016 at 12:11:04 PM permalink | |
| Evenbob Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 146 Posts: 25011 |
Noooo, it's making sexual criminality offensive, like Bill raping Juanita Broderick. Or forcing his unwanted attentions of women. Or lying under oath in the Monica case. You have to understand, it's not just old bag Hill that's running, it's Bill also. It's what she did when he was president, like enabling him to continue his sexual criminality. You're right, it will indeed be a giddy summer for the Clinton's as Hillary is constantly on defense. If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose. |
| May 7th, 2016 at 12:17:49 PM permalink | |
| terapined Member since: Aug 6, 2014 Threads: 73 Posts: 11791 |
Playing defense? You cant be serious Please go listen to your old barking dog video because Trump says something dumb every day :-) Yup, giddy :-) You talk about Bill, We'll use Trump against Trump Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World" |