BREXIT followed by SWEXIT and DENEXIT

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June 28th, 2016 at 7:51:08 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
I forget sometimes that the Merger Treaty collectively referred to as the European Communities was not signed until July 1967. Before that there was the European Coal and Steel Community, the European Economic Community (EEC) and the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) .

So the enlargement to United Kingdom, Ireland, and Denmark, was really only 5.5 years after the Merger Treaty. Norway had negotiated to join at the same time, but Norwegian voters rejected membership in a referendum.

Denmark hooked their currency to the D-mark in 1982 a full 17 years before the EURO was created. It would be much harder for them to withdraw from the EU.

Foreign-exchange reserves (also called Forex reserves) are, in a strict sense, only the foreign-currency deposits held by national central banks and monetary authorities . However, in popular usage and in the list below, it also includes gold reserves, special drawing rights (SDRs) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) reserve position because this total figure, which is usually more accurately termed as official reserves or international reserves or official international reserves, is more readily available.

Official reserves per capita (2016)
$79,057 Switzerland
$18,603 Iceland
$11,395 Norway
$11,223 Denmark
$6,031 Sweden
$2,519 United Kingdom

These reserves in addition to good faith help back a currency. Of course, the USA has no need for foreign reserves except for small change corrections.
June 29th, 2016 at 3:02:10 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Up to 34 referendumsm on leaving may happen. Of course the blame is going to "right wing" parties. Call it whatever they want, but if they are this afraid of votes to leave passing, is the EU really such a good idea?

I remember an international marketing textbook from college where a guy was saying that you would never, ever see "Made in Europe" stamped as a COO. After 25 years of border-free movement, the population might just might be asking if that was such a good idea after all.

The number wanting change is a big thing. The votes to keep are not the motivated side. To keep it is a "what the hey, we have it now" vote to at least a part of that group. Those for leaving want action.

25 years from integration to collapse is fast, but that unheard of historically.
The President is a fink.
June 29th, 2016 at 5:53:15 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: AZDuffman
Up to 34 referendums on leaving may happen.

Of course the blame is going to "right wing" parties. Call it whatever they want, but if they are this afraid of votes to leave passing, is the EU really such a good idea?


The idea of calls for 34 referendums doesn't seem strange to me. If you were to list all the separatist movements and calls for immigration reform in the USA I am sure you could get dozens.

But the UK was the former head of one of the world's greatest empires and Nordic countries have always been independent due to their wealth. I think it's a little early to predict the demise of the EU or the EMU based on the existence of parties which have been around for decades.


Quote: EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS - Referendum watch

The most common position of the insurgent parties on the impact of the UK vote on EU membership was that it would trigger gradual disintegration of the EU. Twelve parties cited this as the most likely or second-most likely consequence of the vote. The issues that they said they would like to see popular referendums on are the
following:

    Their country’s EU membership:
  1. Austria's FPÖ,
  2. France’s Front National and Communist Party;
  3. Czech Republic’s KSCM, Party of Free Citizens, and Dawn – National Coalition;
  4. Sweden Democrats;
  5. Danish People’s Party;
  6. Belgium’s Vlaams Belang;
  7. Bulgaria’s Ataka;
  8. Germany’s AfD;
  9. Hungary’s Jobbik;
  10. Italy’s Lega Nord;
  11. Conservative People’s Party of Estonia;
  12. the Netherlands’ PVV
  13. Ukraine Association Agreement/other association agreements:
  14. Belgium’s Vlaams Belang;
  15. Germany’s AfD
  16. Turkey’s EU membership:
  17. Bulgaria’s Ataka and Patriotic Front

    Their country’s eurozone membership:
  18. Germany’s AfD;
  19. Italy’s Five Star Movement

    Legitimacy and content of refugee policy:
  20. Conservative People’s Party of Estonia;
  21. Germany’s AFD;
  22. Belgium’s Vlaams Belang “Abuse of free movement”:
  23. Sweden Democrats

    Refugee relocation quotas:
  24. Estonia’s Party of People’s Unity;
  25. Hungary’s Fidesz; and Jobbik;
  26. Poland’s Kukiz’15

    Eurozone responsibility towards Greece/Compliance with Stability and Growth Pact:
  27. Estonian Party of People’s Unity;

    Portugual’s Left Bloc Enlargement issues:
  28. Germany’s AfD ;
  29. Austria’s FPÖ

    Future changes in EU treaties/Further transfer of sovereign powers:
  30. Portugal’s Left Bloc;
  31. Sweden Democrats;
  32. Estonian Party of People’s Unity;
  33. Austria’s FPÖ TTIP:
  34. Slovenia’s United Left and Slovenian People’s Party

    NATO membership:
  1. Bulgaria’s Ataka

    National issues, such as independence of regions, repercussions for elected officials:
  2. Spain’s Podemos;
  3. Romania’s Democratic Nationalist Party;
  4. Croatia’s Human Shield Party and MOST


Outside of the Nordic countries and Switzerland there is not the extreme wealth that makes independence much easier. I know all these countries were once independent, but it is more difficult to break out of the alliance once in.

FOREX per person
  1. $13,371 Denmark DNK
  2. $6,454 Sweden SWE
  3. $5,178 Czech Republic CZE
  4. $4,260 Hungary HUN
  5. $2,977 Lithuania LTU
  6. $2,926 Austria AUT
  7. $2,787 Bulgaria BGR
  8. $2,643 Poland POL
  9. $2,553 Netherlands NLD
  10. $2,390 Germany DEU
  11. $2,348 Italy ITA
  12. $2,266 Belgium BEL
  13. $2,174 France FRA
  14. $2,170 Romania ROM
  15. $1,955 Finland FIN
  16. $1,894 Portugal PRT
  17. $1,669 United Kingdom GBR
  18. $1,552 Luxembourg LUX
  19. $1,449 Malta MLT
  20. $1,085 Spain ESP
  21. $574 Greece GRC
  22. $379 Ireland IRL
  23. $332 Estonia EST


$66,656 Switzerland CHE
$12,759 Iceland ISL
$12,615 Norway NOR
$3,639 Croatia HRV
$2,685 Russian Federation RUS
$1,690 Serbia SRB
$1,678 Turkey TUR
$166 Ukraine UKR
June 29th, 2016 at 6:26:58 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Here's an idea.

Have the British government negotiate the exit within three months. That is, to get an agreement on the fundamentals of it. This will spell out in detail he benefits, if any, and the harms, if any, done to both GB and the EU. then have the second referendum to seek voter approval. if the voters don't approve, GB stays.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
June 30th, 2016 at 7:01:40 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Lessons learned from the Brexit vote:

1) Don't set up a referendum for a MAJOR change as a political maneuver.

2) Any referendum dealing with such BIG issues that affect everyone in a country, and in most of a continent, and has secondary effects all over the world, ought to require a supermajority of no less than 65% to pass.

3) Direct democracy is a lousy idea, especially when there are no checks or balances for it. (incidentally, all the more reason why any direct democracy legislation that limits the rights of anyone should be declared prima fascia unconstitutional).

4) The UK needs to write down a constitution.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
June 30th, 2016 at 8:11:02 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Nareed
Lessons learned from the Brexit vote:


I think it is interesting that no country who adopted the EURO except Denmark put the decision up to vote. It lost in Denmark, but as Danish crown had been kept to within 2.25% of a fixed exchange rate with the D-Mark since 1982, they kept doing the same thing with the Euro.


On 9–10 Dec 1991, the Dutch city of Maastricht hosted the European Council which drafted the Treaty on European Union (TEU) .
The Maastricht Treaty was signed on 7 February 1992 by the members of the European Community.
On 2 June 1992, Danish voters rejected the Maastricht Treaty in a referendum.
Another referendum on joining the euro was held in Denmark on 28 September 2000. It was rejected by 53.2% of voters with a turnout of 87.6%.
July 4th, 2016 at 6:41:23 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Does it strike anyone else as odd that few Brexit supporters in the ruling party want to step up to implement it?
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
July 4th, 2016 at 7:10:04 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Nareed
Does it strike anyone else as odd that few Brexit supporters in the ruling party want to step up to implement it?

Some things sound good on the campaign trail. Can you imagine actually trying to ban Muslims from immigrating which would result in all kinds of human interest stories?
July 4th, 2016 at 7:23:23 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Quote: Pacomartin
Some things sound good on the campaign trail. Can you imagine actually trying to ban Muslims from immigrating which would result in all kinds of human interest stories?


Back in 1914, the people running Europe didn't back down from a potential disaster, because they all thought they could win and that it would be a short war.

Today there's no such excuse. For one thing they have the example of WWI to learn from. If leaving would be a bad idea, they should stand up and say so, vote or no vote.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
July 13th, 2016 at 8:14:54 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
===========================
The Plaza Accord was an agreement between the governments of France, West Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, to depreciate the U.S. dollar in relation to the Japanese yen and German Deutsche Mark by intervening in currency markets. The five governments signed the accord on Sunday September 22, 1985
...
USD to GBP
$1.35 Fri, September 20, 1985
$1.43 Mon, September 23, 1985
...
$1.44 end of 1985
===========================

Well the British pound is still at $1.32, so it looks to stay at pre-"Plaza Accord" levels of 1985.
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