Super cheap way to get to Europe

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September 13th, 2016 at 2:32:28 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 722
Posts: 8413
737 MAX 7 Replacement for the 737-700 and 737-700ER. The Improved MAX 7 is stretched to add two more seat rows than the 737-700 for 138 seats, up 12 seats. The redesign uses the 737-8 wing and landing gear; a pair of overwing exits rather than the single-door configuration; a 46-inch-longer aft fuselage and a 30-inch-longer forward fuselage; structural re-gauging and strengthening; and systems and interior modifications to accommodate the longer length.

Boeing has only 60 orders for the 737 MAX 7 from 3 airlines, so we can assume that this production lines will never be set up, and the airlines will upgauge to MAX 8. Similarly Airbus has only 58 orders for neoA319 and only 2 confirmed airlines. So we can also assume that these customers will upgauge to A320neo.

Boeing 737 MAX Firm Orders
Dec 13, 2011 Southwest Airlines 30
Sep 26, 2013 WestJet Airlines 25
Dec 15, 2014 Canada Jetlines 5

Airbus A319neo Firm Orders
8 Nov 2011 Frontier Airlines 18
26 Jan 2012 Avianca 28

Bombardier has
CS100 123 firm orders
CS300 235 firm orders

Quote: Nareed
But if they do go clean slate, that's one more thing to thank Bombardier for.


So clearly Bombardier's clean slate design is the winner in this category of jet. If Boeing takes more than 15 years to introduce a new clean slate design, there is a good chance that Bombardier will have a CS500 and CS700 as competition.
September 13th, 2016 at 4:26:51 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 324
Posts: 11135
Quote: Pacomartin
Boeing has only 60 orders for the 737 MAX 7 from 3 airlines, so we can assume that this production lines will never be set up, and the airlines will upgauge to MAX 8.


Do they need separate production lines, or can they squeeze in some 7s among the 8s?

I don't suppose Southwest would tell Boeing to make their MAX 7s or else! But they could.

Quote:
So clearly Bombardier's clean slate design is the winner in this category of jet.


How many orders for the new Embraers?

Quote:
If Boeing takes more than 15 years to introduce a new clean slate design, there is a good chance that Bombardier will have a CS500 and CS700 as competition.


I hope Bombardier goes large with the C Series. But I see many obstacles to that. For one thing, the company nearly went broke developing the CS100 and CS300. They had to be bailed out by the government of Quebec, and the Canadian government (the latter by pressuring Air Canada to take some C Series jets). And though things seem ok now, if the C Series develops bad teething pains, that might be all she wrote.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
September 13th, 2016 at 5:03:53 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 722
Posts: 8413
Quote: Nareed
Do they need separate production lines, or can they squeeze in some 7s among the 8s?
I don't suppose Southwest would tell Boeing to make their MAX 7s or else! But they could.
How many orders for the new Embraers?


They may squeeze them in, but usually any change to a production line is expensive. I doubt that 60 planes would make it cost effective. Almost all the customers for Boeing or Airbus are also buying the larger models. So I doubt that they would complain to much, especially if they receive financial incentives that cost less than changing the production line.

Enbraer has 280 planes on order about equally split among the three variants. Seven orders are involved, only one of which is from Brazil.

The largest order is for 100 planes of the smallest variant, the E175-E2 which can seat up to 90 passengers. As these are being ordered by SkyWest they will probably be fitted with only 76 seats to keep them in compliance with the scoping clause for regional jets in the pilot contracts.

About 75 are being ordered by leasing companies, so they could end up anywhere. Another 75 are going to China, India and Indonesia.
September 14th, 2016 at 7:13:09 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 324
Posts: 11135
Quote: Pacomartin
So I doubt that they would complain to much, especially if they receive financial incentives that cost less than changing the production line.


I think so, too.

But I like to imagine Southwest telling Boeing "Maybe we'll get some CS300s instead. And who know, we may whisper to Bombardier how we'd like a larger plane to eventually replace some of our 737s."


Quote:
Enbraer has 280 planes on order about equally split among the three variants.


I thought they were doing better than that...
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
September 14th, 2016 at 7:41:30 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 722
Posts: 8413
Quote: Nareed
I thought they were doing better than that...

They have 280 firm orders (100 90 and 90 for the three variants), but they have options for another 275.

September 14th, 2016 at 8:02:37 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 324
Posts: 11135
Quote: Pacomartin
They have 280 firm orders (100 90 and 90 for the three variants), but they have options for another 275.


I assume they got none from Jet Blue :)

Neat chart, BTW.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
September 14th, 2016 at 11:41:08 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 722
Posts: 8413
Quote: Nareed
Neat chart, BTW.


It indicates that you can get up to 132 seats in a jet with a range of 2000-2800 nm. Southwest flew for years (up until mid 1990s) on the B737-300 which was configured with 137 seats and a range off 2270 nm.

Ranges of 2000nm, 2270nm, and 2800 nm around Dallas Airport


Older 737's in Southwest fleet
Boeing 737-200 62 historic
Boeing 737-300 99 historic, 96 current
Boeing 737-500 25 historic

These new larger jets from outside the duopoly does make it interesting to see if a new ULCC airline could develop. There will be increasing pressure on the 76 seat rule in the scoping clause of the pilot contracts as airlines will be anxious to move more routes to the regional airlines.
September 14th, 2016 at 11:58:53 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 324
Posts: 11135
Quote: Pacomartin
These new larger jets from outside the duopoly does make it interesting to see if a new ULCC airline could develop.


I was thinking along those lines. Allegedly these regionals are even more economical in fuel consumption than the smaller 737 or the A318/319. If the model calls for smaller airports as well, it's almost a no-brainer. Also, notice the chart indicates 132 passengers at 31" pitch. ULCCs call that "luxury seating." Spirit, for one, could reduce pitch to 27" or 28" (ouch) and put in, what, a row or two more?

Quote:
There will be increasing pressure on the 76 seat rule in the scoping clause of the pilot contracts as airlines will be anxious to move more routes to the regional airlines.


I've wondered about that. One of the big orders for the C Series came from Delta, which itself doesn't operate such jets. I'm wondering whether Delta will operate them, or will lease them to their regional partners or what. maybe they own their own regional partners? No clue.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
September 14th, 2016 at 12:16:23 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 722
Posts: 8413
Quote: Nareed
I've wondered about that. One of the big orders for the C Series came from Delta, which itself doesn't operate such jets. I'm wondering whether Delta will operate them, or will lease them to their regional partners or what. maybe they own their own regional partners? No clue.


With the new Bombardier which is rated at 80 passengers dual class and 88 passengers single class it involves only removing one row of seats. I believe in the past the scoping clause was modified from 74 to 76 seats to take advantage of an Embraer jet. Perhaps Skywest is hoping to get a similar modification in the future to increase the number to 80.

The Bombardier series are larger planes. The smallest, CS100 is governed by FCC rules which limits it to:
133 (including 1 Pilot, 1 Co-pilot, 1 Observer, a minimum of 3 Cabin Crew and a maximum of 127 Passengers)

Delta said they were going to use them to replace MD-88 (which have 149 seats for Delta) and "older CRJ aircraft". The CRJs are all flown by Delta Connection.

Obviously putting 76 seats in a plane is kind of ridiculous. Would you reduce 21 rows to 12 rows? Would you be flying more business class passengers on your regional airline? Or maybe some routes will be upgraded from express routes to mainline routes.

I have not seen any specifics of Delta's plans.
September 14th, 2016 at 1:11:42 PM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 18
Posts: 749
I like that chart.

What is currently the longest scheduled non-stop in the lower 48? I would guess Miami to Seattle.
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