Further Airline mergers

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August 12th, 2016 at 8:28:29 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Skywest Inc has 238 Embraer aircraft and 327 Bombardiers all of them configured with 76 seats or less (in accordance with pilot union agreement). American Eagle has almost 300 Embraers and 300 Bombardiers.

I imagine that Jetblue simply regrets the decision to go with the smaller jet. Back in 2005 the airline was spinning into unprofitable territory when the decision was made. They are still contractually obligated to purchase 40 more of these jets, so it is in their interest to make as many public complaints as possible so that Embraer will let them out of the contract.

JetBlue is currently flying 24K seats on Airbus narrowbodies with another 6K seats on the Embraer. The profitability of the company is increasingly relying on the Mint configured airplanes. The last thing they want is to be forced to purchase another 40 Embraers.
August 12th, 2016 at 8:42:39 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
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Quote: Pacomartin
[..]so it is in their interest to make as many public complaints as possible so that Embraer will let them out of the contract.


What are they going to do? Scare potential customers off? After so many successful sales?

Quote:
JetBlue is currently flying 24K seats on Airbus narrowbodies with another 6K seats on the Embraer. The profitability of the company is increasingly relying on the Mint configured airplanes. The last thing they want is to be forced to purchase another 40 Embraers.


Could they configure the Embraer to all-Mint, all 1-1, direct-aisle access? Of course, tis' a shorter range jet. But in all-Mint it would carry fewer passengers and luggage. I doubt it could make JFK-LHR, or that LHR wouldn't shoot them down if they tried. But maybe JFK-Keflavik and compete with Iceland Air and WOW? Or maybe to supplement transcon routes to alternate airports like Ontario or Long Beach?

Yeah, right. It's easy to pipe dream with other people's airline! :)
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
August 12th, 2016 at 12:20:51 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
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Quote: Nareed

What are they going to do? Scare potential customers off? After so many successful sales?

I think they want Embraer to cancel the remainder of the contract. If Embraer has enough sales, they may be willing to do that, just to avoid more public thrashings.

Quote: Nareed

Could they configure the Embraer to all-Mint, all 1-1, direct-aisle access? Of course, tis' a shorter range jet. But in all-Mint it would carry fewer passengers and luggage.


First we should look at what routes they are planning for Mint service. Right now it is JFK to SFO, LAX, Aruba, and Barbados and BOS to SFO.



The specifications for every model are always much longer than the actual commercial flights. The longest route being flown by Embraer E190 Jetliner is Toronto-Pearson to Seattle 2,060 miles; Air Canada AC 541



Jetblue usually flies their Mint planes to LAX and SFO which are a bit further. But Phoenix is only about 100 miles further. Denver, Albaquerque , and Salt Lake City are closer.
YYZ SEA 292° (W) 303° (NW) 2,060 mi
JFK DEN 278° (W) 291° (W) 1,626 mi
JFK ABQ 268° (W) 281° (W) 1,826 mi
JFK SLC 283° (W) 296° (NW) 1,989 mi
JFK PHX 269° (W) 282° (W) 2,153 mi
JFK SFO 282° (W) 295° (NW) 2,586 mi
JFK LAX 274° (W) 287° (W) 2,475 mi

Jetblue normal configuration for an Airbus A321-200 is
41 economy plus and 149 economy
41 economy plus and 102 economy & 16 Mint seats

Jetblue normal configuration for an Embraer E190 is
16 economy plus and 84 economy

Executives and movie stars are happy to pay for Mint class, because it is cheap compared to first class. But most of them are headed for prime Caribbean destinations or California. I don't know if people would pay to go to Denver or Salt Lake City.
August 12th, 2016 at 1:00:13 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
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Quote: Pacomartin
I think they want Embraer to cancel the remainder of the contract. If Embraer has enough sales, they may be willing to do that, just to avoid more public thrashings.


I think the value of public thrashings isn't as high as that of the cancellation fee. But they might perhaps want to reduce it.

Quote:
The specifications for every model are always much longer than the actual commercial flights. The longest route being flown by Embraer E190 Jetliner is Toronto-Pearson to Seattle 2,060 miles; Air Canada AC 541


That seems almost as bad as the SAS 737 BBJ(*) flying Boston to Copenhagen...

Back on track, Jet Blue is pretty much screwed and stuck with the Embraers, at least for the foreseeable future. Unless they add Mint flights elsewhere. It's true that JFK-DEN won't appeal to the glitterati, but how about LAX-Aspen? Assuming that 1) they have the fortitude for that tricky, daylight only approach and 2) a regional jet is even capable of landing there.

Of course, even so, at most they'd use up one Embraer in all-Mint for that route.

Perhaps they could sell them to another airline, or lease them?


(*) BBJ stands for Boeing Business Jet. it's a part of Boeing that sells, and in some cases provides the interiors, for jetliners used as private or executive travel. As far as I know, all civilian models are eligible. There are a few 747s tricked out like that. SAS flies this 737, leased from another company, which has a large business class area and better than normal economy seats. But it's still a long time to be cooped up in a narrow body.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
August 12th, 2016 at 9:04:39 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Chief Executive Officer David Neeleman founded JetBlue Airways in 1998 and David Barger was one of the first employees. Following a February 2007 incident in which the airline was forced to cancel nearly 1,700 flights due to winter storms, JetBlue's board of directors replaced founder with Barger on May 10, 2007. On September 18, 2014, Barger announced his resignation from the company effective February 16, 2015, following several reports that investors and the board were unhappy with the lagging stock price and Barger's performance. He was replaced on the board and as CEO by Robin Hayes.

JetBlue became the launch customer for the EMBRAER 190 in June 2003 with an order for 100 aircraft, plus options for an additional 100. The first EMBRAER 190 was delivered to JetBlue in a ceremony in São José dos Campos, Brazil, on September 13, 2005.

Quote: Nareed
Perhaps they could sell them to another airline, or lease them?


One of the hallmark themes of Barger's entire term as CEO was that the Embraer's were a serious drawback on the company. He said repeatedly it was a mistake for a fledgling airline to be a launch customer. It is difficult to sell something if you spent nearly a decade publicly bemoaning the planes.

The primary motivation was 10-times daily service between JFK and Boston’s Logan International Airport .

Jetblue then launched EMBRAER 190 service between
JFK to Austin, Richmond, Burlington, and Buffalo.
Boston to Austin, Richmond, West Palm Beach and The Bahamas.

They may need to replace the planes with similar size planes.
August 13th, 2016 at 4:38:33 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831
Quote: Fleastiff
Merge any airlines you want to, but please keep their computer systems separate.
Instead of this humorous quip, I've decided to make a more serious response.

It struck me as very "Oriental" to invest in suppliers and in competitors, so that industry growth is aided.

Of course investments in other airlines can be used to circumnavigate regulations and tax obligations as well.

I don't think 'airplane mix' adds to costs at maintenance depots, but it probably adds to costs at interim stops where smaller installations have to store double sets of parts and have double the technicians available. So it probably affects turn around time rather than annual strip down time.

BOS is ????
August 13th, 2016 at 7:31:51 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
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Quote: Pacomartin
It is difficult to sell something if you spent nearly a decade publicly bemoaning the planes.


I undertsand that.

But it's also difficult to get out of a hole if you keep digging. Blaming a bad decision on the planes, is like bringing down a steam shovel into the whole.

I wonder how Interjet is doing with their little Russian jets. At first, according to their route map, they were used for thin routes. Lately I've caught them on popular routes like MEX-MTY. They might be adding flights, or they might be trying to address the unsold seats issue. If a 150-seat A320 typically carries 100 people, then a 93-seat Sukhoi would be a better fit.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
August 13th, 2016 at 9:12:13 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Nareed
I wonder how Interjet is doing with their little Russian jets. At first, according to their route map, they were used for thin routes. Lately I've caught them on popular routes like MEX-MTY. They might be adding flights, or they might be trying to address the unsold seats issue. If a 150-seat A320 typically carries 100 people, then a 93-seat Sukhoi would be a better fit.


Jetblue on average flies 658 miles with the Embraer (64 minutes air time). The longest regular routes are 1562 and 1521 miles from Boston to DFW and JFK to Austin Texas. They sometimes fly them from a little further like Boston to Austin (1698 miles) or JFK to San Juan (1598 miles), but these flights are once or twice a month.

They average 264 departures per day on the Embraer (100 seats per plane) and 471 departures per day on the Airbus jets (mostly A320s and some A321s). A total of 69% of their flights on the Embraer are to or from Boston or JFK. An additional 10% involve Fort Lauderdale.

Jetblue doesn't primarily use them on thin routes, but on popular routes like Boston to Washington National (400 miles) where frequency is important.

Jetblue routes with most seats using Embraer regional jets
4.98% BOS DCA
4.34% JFK BOS
3.67% JFK BUF
2.94% BOS RDU
2.64% BOS PHL
2.61% BOS BWI
2.52% BOS RSW
2.39% BOS RIC
2.43% JFK BTV
2.22% FLL JAX Florida
2.21% BOS PIT
2.16% JFK ROC
2.14% FLL DCA Florida
2.14% BOS EWR
2.09% HPN PBI Florida
2.04% JFK IAD
1.99% JFK SYR
54.49%

Boston Airport is a little like Las Vegas, Washington National, San Diego, and Orlando. It is a very busy airport, but it is not really a transfer hub.
August 15th, 2016 at 1:26:06 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Pacomartin
Interjet is flying to 8 USA destinations
https://www.interjet.com/mapa-destinos-interjet.aspx


Interjet currently has 43 Airbus A320-200 with 3 more on order and 5 options @ 150 passengers


But Interjet has orders 40 Airbus A320neo with 10 options and 10 Airbus A321neo.

The range on these planes is supposed to be 6500km, but a long range A321neo option is 7400km. I know that commercial routes are never quite as long as the range specified, but that is a pretty big range.




The same ranges drawn on Iceland and JFK follow


August 15th, 2016 at 5:33:50 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831
RANGE for an airliner usually includes a consideration of Destination Airport and First Alternate Airport. Of necessity it also includes fuel to be used in dancing around the skies to avoid the worst of the weather and to comply with enroute and approach controller's instructions.

I wonder if a 'prevailing winds' map might aid route displays. Flying into headwinds is different than flying with a tailwind. Flying into reliably predicted weather patterns might show weather-deviation time.

Japan's domestic flights are sardine shuttles with quick turnaround times.

International flights tend to be comfort class and require longer turnaround times due to lack of a maintenance base at remote destinations.

Mergers tend to erode that 'lack of a maintenance base' issue, but for longer flights it seems some mixture of Luxury Class and Comfort Class is needed, since I don't think Business Tickets will be sold if its Business Class in name only and Sardine class in fact.
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