NFL 2016

Let's begin with some wisdom:

Thinking your team is a winner if it scores victories in preseason is like thinking yourself rich when you build a real estate empire in Monopoly.

I need a shorter version for Facebook...

I believe historically on average teams that went undefeated in the preseason have a losing record in the regular season.

Quote: DRich

I believe historically on average teams that went undefeated in the preseason have a losing record in the regular season.

The only thing the preseason proves is how good are the bench warmers

Quote: DRich

I believe historically on average teams that went undefeated in the preseason have a losing record in the regular season.

The Exhibition Season matters not. The few coaches who try to win are playing coaches who are not. As a kid I could not wait for the games in August. Even with the scrubs. At the least I would watch the starters and for certain things. Now, if I did not see the Eagles unloading their bus outside my office I would not have known there was a game.

My collapse in interest in the NFL keeps amazing me. Started about 2012. That year I just cared less. Then I started rehabbing a house. Game on radio, but other things more important. By last year worked weekend nights and was on Vick-strike. Listened to games while I half-slept. Watched what little I could sit still for.

This year I can't name two Steelers. Not even trying to avoid it, I have gone from "strike" to seriously not caring. I could be the guy who works at the stadium never seeing a play and not caring a whit. I figure my office will think I am seriously strange in a few weeks when they notice. Oh, well. So much more to life.

Quote: DRich

I believe historically on average teams that went undefeated in the preseason have a losing record in the regular season.

What record did the 0-16 Lions post in preseason? A league best 4-0....

OMG, did you see where Mark Sanchez has landed?

Poor guy. I fail to see what he did to deserve such a fate.

Quote: Nareed

OMG, did you see where Mark Sanchez has landed?

Poor guy. I fail to see what he did to deserve such a fate.

Any team dumb enough to pick him up deserves what comes to them.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Any team dumb enough to pick him up deserves what comes to them.

No one deserves the ignominy of being snatched by the Cowboys.

It seems economists are engineers as well:

http://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2016/09/crazy_things_football_teams_should_always_do.html

You know the joke, that an engineer will often tell you something that's both completely true and 100% useless? So....

Let's take the advice about not punting as often. It sounds very good and seems to ring true. But everybody punts in most 4th downs. So if one team elected to forego punting and did better, in a few weeks all other teams would copy the strategy and we'd be back to a level field. We've seen this happen with the no-huddle offense, the wildcat offense, the Tampa 2 defense, the zone-blitz, etc.

Likewise with the draft. Sure, a team in a high-draft position could trade its first and second round picks for several picks in rounds 3 through 7 (and maybe an obsolete punter or three). But, again, everyone places a great deal of money and stock on high-draft picks. If a team attempted to trade away high picks for low ones, and it did better, everyone else would copy them. Again the field would return to level, and perhaps the long term benefit, for the teams, would be a lower valuation of high picks.

Besides, we have two data points that contradict the theory. Of course, we'd need lots more data to see if the predictions are true on average. But the two points we have are infamous. One was Bellichick going for it on 4th down deep in his own territory, which handed the ball over to the enemy right there. The other was when Mike Ditka, then coaching the Saints, traded all his draft picks for Ricky Williams (I think it was for him). We knos it didn't work out for Ditka and the Saints, but does anyone even remember which team took all of NO's draft that year, or how well they did? I think it was the Redskins, and I know they haven't done well in decades. So there!

I'll repeat: two data points prove nothing one way or another, but they stick out. And for people who don't think scientifically, they're all the needed "proof."

I'm less certain about going for a TD rather than a field goal in 4th and goal. Goal line plays are notoriously difficult, as you can mass the defense very effectively in the short, restrictive field. That0s why it's easier to break out from your goal line area moving forward, than to crack the half quarter inch for a TD.

The Broncos tried really hard to give the game away in the last offensive series yesterday, but they didn't quite manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Seriously, on 4th and a quarter light-year, why would anyone put their hands on the receiver's facemask one inch from the line of scrimmage? There's nothing to gain, but plenty to lose.