The Trump implosion thread!

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12 members have voted

August 10th, 2017 at 1:40:46 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 319
Posts: 10857
Quote: ams288
Feels like it's definitely more than half the time...


Well, when he does something so monumentally idiotic as he did with the Korea thing... Come one, threatening "fire and fury" in response to a verbal threat? So of Course the North Koreans went and issued a threat to attack Guam.

Nukes or no nukes, I doubt very much North Korea wants a war with the US. I'm sure, also nukes or no nukes, they'd love a war with South Korea. One BIG thing that has kept war from resuming in the peninsula, is the presences of US troops in the South. Another big reason is the commitment by the US to aid South Korea if attacked.

So threatening to strike North Korea for making a threat is stupid. It might just precipitate the war every thinking person wants to avoid.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
August 11th, 2017 at 9:42:00 AM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 35
Posts: 2999
Quote: Nareed
Well, when he does something so monumentally idiotic as he did with the Korea thing... Come one, threatening "fire and fury" in response to a verbal threat? So of Course the North Koreans went and issued a threat to attack Guam.

Nukes or no nukes, I doubt very much North Korea wants a war with the US. I'm sure, also nukes or no nukes, they'd love a war with South Korea. One BIG thing that has kept war from resuming in the peninsula, is the presences of US troops in the South. Another big reason is the commitment by the US to aid South Korea if attacked.

So threatening to strike North Korea for making a threat is stupid. It might just precipitate the war every thinking person wants to avoid.


Trump egging on NK is terrible
Already affecting business travel
A lot of companies are banning business travel to Guam :-(
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
August 11th, 2017 at 9:55:13 AM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 11
Posts: 2097
Quote: terapined
Trump egging on NK is terrible
Already affecting business travel
A lot of companies are banning business travel to Guam :-(


Just remember: Hillary Clinton's email practices were a grave threat to the security of this nation!
In order to insult me, I must first value your opinion
August 11th, 2017 at 9:58:07 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 319
Posts: 10857
Quote: terapined
Trump egging on NK is terrible


There are simply no good options concerning North Korea. But egging them on is what will likely lead to the worst of the bad options: war in the Korean peninsula.

Even if Kim refrains from suing nukes, and that's not a given, Seoul is a densely populated city that lies in the range of NK artillery and other conventional forces. The death toll would be horrifying, and the economic damage rather devastating. And don't forget the North also has large stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons. These can easily be fired in artillery shells.

My fear is Trump may decide that a few million South Korean civilian casualties are aceptable losses
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
August 11th, 2017 at 11:36:43 AM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 118
Posts: 4993
Quote: Nareed
My fear is Trump may decide that a few million South Korean civilian casualties are aceptable losses


I've seen the argument going for that already. People willing to roll the dice on S. Korea to finish Kim once and for all. Easy to say, if you or your family aren't living there, I guess.
No one has ever proven I am not God.
August 11th, 2017 at 11:56:45 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 319
Posts: 10857
Quote: rxwine
I've seen the argument going for that already. People willing to roll the dice on S. Korea to finish Kim once and for all. Easy to say, if you or your family aren't living there, I guess.


I wonder if they have any idea what a collapse of South Korea's economy would do to the rest of the world.

My other fear is that Golden Boy will buy an "easy" solution and try a decapitating strike. essentially, and simplistically, this means killing off the Kim family and as much of the rest of the leadership as possible. It sounds simple, but it isn't. Failure is a very likely outcome. And then a full scale war would follow, unless he's willing to cede South Korea.

The thing is, trump being what he is, he won't have the resources on hand to deal with such a war. Defeating North Korea would take a very large number of troops (much larger than Iraq), plus the consent of South Korea and Japan. It would be a great idea to get China aboard, too, or who knows what it might do if the US attacks NK. Keep in mind it was China's interference in the Korean war that turned the war in the North's favor back in the 50s.

Would they get involved now? it's hard to say. They don't want a collapse in the North along with the large number of refugees that would follow. they also don't want US troops near their border, meaning they don't want a unified Korea as a result of US/South Korean action. I wonder whether China might decide to station troops in NK to act as a tripwire, the assumption being that even Trump won't want to go to war with China (who has nuclear-tipped ICBMs that can reach the US).

I wonder, too, whether china could stage a coup and turn NK into a puppet state. I suppose not, or they'd have done it already.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
August 12th, 2017 at 3:58:49 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 11
Posts: 2097
Donald is too afraid to condemn his base radical white supremacists today.

He's an awful man.

I look forward to his inevitable downfall.
In order to insult me, I must first value your opinion
August 14th, 2017 at 9:11:55 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 705
Posts: 8134
Quote: Nareed
There are simply no good options concerning North Korea. But egging them on is what will likely lead to the worst of the bad options: war in the Korean peninsula.


I tend to agree that the verbal threats aimed at North Korea are relatively pointless. I should think that they would be aware that a missile strike will bring about massive retaliation.

Quote: Nareed
My fear is Trump may decide that a few million South Korean civilian casualties are acceptable losses


The airports are 129 miles apart.


The Seoul Capital Area has 24 million people and the 2018 Winter Olympics, is scheduled to take place from 9 to 25 February 2018. Most visitors will come through Seoul although there is a tiny international airport called Yangyang (YNY) which is closer to the venues.

The Korean War resulted in 2.5 million civilian deaths/wounded.

I don't think President Trump is a monster that would sacrifice millions of people just to stop a threat. He might respond to a pre-emptive strike on Guam.
August 14th, 2017 at 9:44:08 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 319
Posts: 10857
Quote: Pacomartin
I tend to agree that the verbal threats aimed at North Korea are relatively pointless. I should think that they would be aware that a missile strike will bring about massive retaliation.


I think the Kims are aware of this, and that's why I'm not overly concerned about NK nukes.

But proliferation breeds proliferation. South Korea and Japan might well decide, especially with Trump in power, they can't depend on the US's good graces for what is, after all, an existential threat. So they may develop their own nukes and delivery missiles (Japan, in fact, already has rockets capable of launching satellites, so that would be simple). This gives you a MAD scenario in North Asia, complete with false alarms and brinkmanship.

My other big concern is NK could sell its nuclear know-how and/or materials to others, like Iran or, worse still, to terrorists.


IMO, a solution begins and ends with China, the 800-lb gorilla in the neighborhood. To begin with, there are two questions: 1) what can China do? and 2) what does China want in return?

We know china doesn't want US troops near its border, which is a likely outcome of any conflict in the area. Truly, I think they'd be thrilled to have no US troops at all in the whole Korean peninsula, which is a rather reasonable hope.

But what else?

And what can it do?
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
August 14th, 2017 at 10:02:21 AM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 118
Posts: 4993
The most salient point of the recent N. Korea exchange -- is that despite any claims and complaints about the mistakes and weaknesses of past Presidents, N. Korea continues on the same path of nuke development with our new President.
No one has ever proven I am not God.
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