Violent Crime Rates and Demographics

January 14th, 2013 at 7:22:14 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 866
Posts: 10294
A total 8 out of 12 of the cities in America with the highest violent crime rate are drawn from the 20 largest African American majority cities (by percentage).
Limiting discussion to the cities of over 100K population

Jackson MS has the second largest African American population in the country but a relatively low rank by violent crime rate.

Why do you suppose Jackson is a major exception?

City Population: Ranked by Highest Violent Crime Rate for 2011
Flint 102,357 *
Detroit 713,239 *
St. Louis 320,454 *
Oakland 395,317
Memphis 652,725 *
Little Rock 194,988
Birmingham 213,258 *
Atlanta 425,533 *
Baltimore 626,848 *
Stockton 295,136
Rockford 153,331
Cleveland 397,106 *


Rank City Percentage African American
1 Detroit, Michigan 82.7% *
2 Jackson, Mississippi 79.4%
3 Miami Gardens, Florida 76.3%
4 Birmingham, Alabama 73.4% *
5 Baltimore, Maryland 63.7% *
6 Memphis, Tennessee 63.3% *
7 New Orleans, Louisiana 60.2%
8 Baton Rouge, Louisiana 58.5%
9 Flint, Michigan 56.6% *
10 Savannah, Georgia 55.4%
11 Augusta, Georgia 54.7%
12 Shreveport, Louisiana 54.7%
13 Montgomery, Alabama 54.5%
14 Atlanta, Georgia 54.0% *
15 Cleveland, Ohio 53.3% *
16 Newark, New Jersey 52.4%
17 Washington, D.C. 50.7%
18 Richmond, Virginia 50.6%
19 Mobile, Alabama 50.6%
20 St. Louis, Missouri 49.2% *


New Orleans is a little unusual, because while it's violent crime rate is not particularly high, it ranks right below Detroit in murders per capita.

In general the cities that have had high percentage of black population as far back as the civil war, do not seem to have the highest rate of violent crime. But there are exceptions to that generalization as well.

Reasoned responses only. Please no mumbo-jumbo.
January 14th, 2013 at 7:48:44 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 112
Posts: 8850
No idea on Jackson. Sometimes there is a sort of "local culture" that instilled a value of "we don't do that here."

As to cities with "old" black populations in the south vs "new" ones in the north and west I feel it is sort of the same. Lets talk Detroit vs Jackson. Jackson goes way, way back. So the population by and large was stable over the years as a community. Detroit otoh had their blacks settle first when Henry ford tried to break the unions then over the years for factory work which was better than on the farm. But the blacks came from many places. So maybe you had some from ms and some from al. When people from different places meet at a new one they tend to clique up by geography at least as first. So in Detroit there was less unity. Less unity breeds more violence.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
January 14th, 2013 at 10:19:43 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 866
Posts: 10294
Quote: AZDuffman
No idea on Jackson. Sometimes there is a sort of "local culture" that instilled a value of "we don't do that here."


I was trying to figure out correlation with local culture. Is the Baptist church still very strong in Jackson MS?


There are also some cities high on the list of violent cities with relatively diverse ethnic mix
Oakland 395,317 (28.0% black, 16.8% Asian, 25.4% Latino, 25.9% White-Not Hispanic)
Little Rock 194,988 (42.3% black, 2.7% Asian, 6.8% Latino, 46.7% White-Not Hispanic)
Stockton 295,136 (12.2% black, 13.0% Asian, 40.3% Latino, 22.9% White-Not Hispanic)
Rockford 153,331 (20.5% black, 2.9% Asian, 15.8% Latino, 58.4% White-Not Hispanic)



It is interesting to note that American's ten poorest cities are completely separate than either of the two previous lists.
10. Morristown, Tenn.
>Median household income: $35,027
>Population: 137,494 (81st lowest)
9. Cumberland, Md.- W. Va.
>Median household income: $34,819
>Population: 102,884 (28th lowest)
8. Jonesboro, Ark.
>Median household income: $34,673
>Population: 121,569 (55th lowest)
7. Hot Springs, Ark.
>Median household income: $34,251
>Population: 97,124 (18th lowest)
6. Monroe, La.
>Median household income: $34,036
>Population: 177,651 (138th lowest)
5. Gadsden, Ala.
>Median household income: $33,313
>Population: 104,303 (29th lowest)
4. Albany, Ga.
>Median household income: $32,775
>Population: 161,617 (122nd lowest)
3. Valdosta, Ga.
>Median household income: $32,446
>Population: 140,599 (87th lowest)
2. Brownsville-Harlingen, Tex.
>Median household income: $32,070
>Population: 414,123 (124th highest)
1. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Tex.
>Median household income: $31,077
>Population: 797,810 (68th highest)
January 14th, 2013 at 10:54:00 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 112
Posts: 8850
Baptists are probably strong there but I am thinking something more. Here is an example. I. The USA peoe for years left empty pop Ron and pop cups at their seat in the movie theatre. In Canada this was simply not done and if you did it someone would likely politely but firmly remind you. Or another. Where I live there are a few intersections with yield signs where right of way vehicles take turns and let others in. If they did not nobody would get in. No cops to tell people to do if. It is simply how you behave.

On a criminal scale I have read how when Midwest mobsters moved in on CA there was friction because they were more strong arm than was called for in that part of the country

It happens in communities.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
January 14th, 2013 at 11:13:03 AM permalink
98Clubs
Member since: Nov 11, 2012
Threads: 2
Posts: 75
Two major points here, the first is something I just happened to notice, and is rather odd, and poosibly, unrelated.
Most cities have or are suburbs of larger cities that have a professional sports franchise(s).

The second point is that perhaps a clarification might be found by using "violent crime per square mile". I believe this will completely alter the picture, and can be used as counter-point, as the "density of violent crime" indicates pockets within major metro regions as opposed to "cities > 100k".

BTW, show the source of this data presented.
There are four things certain in life... Death, Taxes, the Resistance to them, and Stupidity.
January 14th, 2013 at 11:39:13 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 866
Posts: 10294
Quote: 98Clubs
BTW, show the source of this data presented.


I went to the normal places:
(1) Demographics is from census bureau for 2010
(2) Violent Crime is from the database of Uniform Crime Statistics from FBI. As a matter of policy the FBI does not rank or even divide by 100,000 to get rates. But you can just download the data into a spreadsheet and do it yourself. The cities object to ranking of any sort.

These two tiny towns in Tennessee of less than 500 people had one murder apiece in 2011. Strictly speaking they have the highest murder rate in the country.
Saltillo Tennessee 306 people 1 murder
Cumberland Gap , Tennessee 498 people 1 murder
Normally, you just look at cities of a certain size to avoid statistical extreme. Very often look at cities over 100K.

(3) Poverty bottom 10 was an article, but different versions of it are floating around. Data is undoubtedly from census bureau

The correlation with high violent crime and majority Black cities is so easy to spot that most people comment on it. But I seldom see people trying to discuss the exceptions to the rule.

While no place with money has a high violent crime rate, the most violent places are not necessarily the poorest. Basically there is no perfect correlation to demographics, poverty, and crime.

Your suggestion to use other metrics like "violent crime per square mile" is a solid idea. I know that the city with one of the highest violent crime rates in Pennsylvania is the state capital, Harrisburg. Yet many people complain about the reputation, saying that it is one of the liveliest small cities in the country with a thriving nightlife. Many people choose to live there. The violent crime occurs in a relatively small area.
January 14th, 2013 at 12:06:21 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 112
Posts: 8850
Harrisburg a thriving nightlife?
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
January 15th, 2013 at 2:16:14 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 866
Posts: 10294
Quote: AZDuffman
Harrisburg a thriving nightlife?


The defenders of Harrisburg insist that they have the most vibrant nightlife of any city of only 50K. But you can still find an apartment for $700/month because people look up the violent crime / murder rate of the city plus the fact that they lost 45% of their population over a 40 year period and are terrified to move there.

Downtown After Dark

I am told by some people that if you stay out of "Allison Hill" , Harrisburg is basically safe.
January 15th, 2013 at 5:29:04 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 112
Posts: 8850
Quote: Pacomartin
The defenders of Harrisburg insist that they have the most vibrant nightlife of any city of only 50K.


Sound a little shaky. Similar to Rochester who had "The oldest, inner-city, indoor shopping mall in the USA."

The place was a dump, its best days were the 1960s. Now gone I am told.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
February 23rd, 2013 at 8:58:54 PM permalink
digitaltim
Member since: Dec 22, 2012
Threads: 0
Posts: 2
Quote: Pacomartin
A total 8 out of 12 of the cities in America with the highest violent crime rate are drawn from the 20 largest African American majority cities (by percentage).
Limiting discussion to the cities of over 100K population

Jackson MS has the second largest African American population in the country but a relatively low rank by violent crime rate.

Why do you suppose Jackson is a major exception?

City Population: Ranked by Highest Violent Crime Rate for 2011
Flint 102,357 *
Detroit 713,239 *
St. Louis 320,454 *
Oakland 395,317
Memphis 652,725 *
Little Rock 194,988
Birmingham 213,258 *
Atlanta 425,533 *
Baltimore 626,848 *
Stockton 295,136
Rockford 153,331
Cleveland 397,106 *


Rank City Percentage African American
1 Detroit, Michigan 82.7% *
2 Jackson, Mississippi 79.4%
3 Miami Gardens, Florida 76.3%
4 Birmingham, Alabama 73.4% *
5 Baltimore, Maryland 63.7% *
6 Memphis, Tennessee 63.3% *
7 New Orleans, Louisiana 60.2%
8 Baton Rouge, Louisiana 58.5%
9 Flint, Michigan 56.6% *
10 Savannah, Georgia 55.4%
11 Augusta, Georgia 54.7%
12 Shreveport, Louisiana 54.7%
13 Montgomery, Alabama 54.5%
14 Atlanta, Georgia 54.0% *
15 Cleveland, Ohio 53.3% *
16 Newark, New Jersey 52.4%
17 Washington, D.C. 50.7%
18 Richmond, Virginia 50.6%
19 Mobile, Alabama 50.6%
20 St. Louis, Missouri 49.2% *


New Orleans is a little unusual, because while it's violent crime rate is not particularly high, it ranks right below Detroit in murders per capita.

In general the cities that have had high percentage of black population as far back as the civil war, do not seem to have the highest rate of violent crime. But there are exceptions to that generalization as well.

Reasoned responses only. Please no mumbo-jumbo.


All,

I reason that if there is an asterisk in the above post, the poster is a liar.

Edit: This post is meant to be Jocular.