What if 9-11 happened tomorrow?

If at all possible could we keep moral judgement to a minimum and talk about predictions?

FACTS

1. In January 1995 the Bojinka plot was thwarted by luck. This plot involved flying a plane into CIA headquarters in the Philippines, destroying 11 jets and killing 4000 passengers. All of the principals in 9-11 were involved
2. The attack occurred in the 33rd week of GW Bush's presidency
3. About 15 of the 19 hijackers were from Saudi Arabia
4. All hijackers entered USA legally
5. The War in Afghanistan was approved by every member of congress except the representative to Oakland California.
6. UK remained allied with the USA in the war in Afghanistan
7. Other NATO nations entered into the war when it expanded into Iraq

Sixteen years later, we have a new President with different public sentiment from our allies. The public discussion of immigration is different. In retrospect, the nations that the USA went to war with (Afghanistan and Iraq) were related to the attack, but they certainly were not solely responsible.

What would happen if an attack on NYC happens on the 16th anniversary?

Quote: Pacomartin

In retrospect, the nations that the USA went to war with (Afghanistan and Iraq) were related to the attack, but they certainly were not solely responsible.

Iraq was in no way related to 9/11. The war in Iraq in 2003 was one of the biggest blunders in history.

Quote: Nareed

Iraq was in no way related to 9/11.

The Bush administration based its rationale for the war principally on the assertion that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and that the Iraqi government posed an immediate threat to the United States and its coalition allies.

The Invasion of Iraq was launched 80 weeks after 9/11. Although that wasn't an official reason, it is difficult to assert that the anger associated with 9/11 was not a big influence on the decision making process.

I think that is part of my question. If this hypothetical attack does occur in 2017 the responsibility will probably be diffuse. But what would happen? Would we do undercover operations, or would warfare spread to multiple nations?

One of the consequences of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq was the cozying up to Eastern Europe as a potential new coalition and location of military bases. The Obama administration downplayed those relationships. Would President Trump restart those overtures? How would Russia react?

While it is true that Bulgaria is only 1000 miles to Damascus (vs 2000 miles from Frankfurt), it is also 250 miles to the Crimean peninsula.

Quote: Pacomartin

The Bush administration based its rationale for the war principally on the assertion that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)

It didn't.

Quote:

and that the Iraqi government posed an immediate threat to the United States and its coalition allies.

It didn't. It presented a much bigger threat to Iran.

Quote:

The Invasion of Iraq was launched 80 weeks after 9/11. Although that wasn't an official reason, it is difficult to assert that the anger associated with 9/11 was not a big influence on the decision making process.

It was a big excuse in the decision-making process, and a big influence in selling the war to the public. Even the Democrats had pangs of 1991.

For the record, a vote against the war in 1991 was wrong. A vote against the war in 2003 was right.

But try and learn from past mistakes in politics.

Quote:

I think that is part of my question. If this hypothetical attack does occur in 2017 the responsibility will probably be diffuse. But what would happen?

Three things would happen:

1) Golden Boy Trump would be happy as a clam, even if all terrorists came from nations he has business dealings with (ie not covered by the Muslim Ban), as he'd be able to say he was right and everyone else was wrong.

2) A rumor would spread that the terrorists entered illegally from Mexico, even if there's evidence they al entered the US legally after "extreme" vetting.

3) Golden Boy would launch an invasion of Mexico to recover the territories lost in the Mexican-American war (don't you know US troops held the whole country and were driven out?)

I hope there isn't even a mild crisis between now and the time Golden Boy can be removed from the office he usurps. As his first instinct would be to blame the Democrats, and his second would be to think it's all over now because he's already blamed someone else.

Quote: Pacomartin

What would happen if an attack on NYC happens on the 16th anniversary?

At first you would have a lot of the same. Initially a nation in shock and mourning. In short order, the muslim apologists would be out saying we cannot "blame muslims." The Trump Administration would look for a quick military answer to what is really a longer, global struggle.

The thing about 9/11 is that it was the first time since 1941 that an enemy attacked the USA and there was no good military option that could quickly be done. For all the reach of the USA Military, Afghanistan was beyond that reach, conventionally at least. Plus there was so little to attack. A joke went that they were in the stone age you want to bomb them into.

Suppose it was Iranians this time. Would we take a war with Iran? I don't think we would.

What would happen? Some quick airstrikes. Lefties would double-down on islam. Same people opposing travel bans would still oppose them, they would actually oppose them even more. A few people might see the struggle they currently choose to ignore. CNN and MSNBC would push a blame-Trump message. Another memorial would be built and it would take many people years to get beyond the mourning phase to get angry. Six weeks later most people will be back to just caring who is going to the playoffs and what actress is going into rehab yet again.

Those of us who have seen what the struggle is about and been trying to warn will shake our heads, knowing that it might take a USA city being flattened by a nuke to get people to wake up. 40 or so years and the public cannot see it for what it is, why should that change?

The primary conspirators for the 9/11 attack were Israel, Saudi Arabia and POTUS.
I do not see any of those three needing to stage another incident to provoke American outrage so we will spend USA lives, weapons and money to make the Middle East safe for Israel from all these Baby Docs and Papa Docs.

Quote: AZDuffman

Suppose it was Iranians this time. Would we take a war with Iran? I don't think we would.

I imagine a war with Iran might be worse than any way since WWII. Maybe even the Vietnam war. There are 83 million people in Iran.

1. Korean War (1950–1953)
2. Lebanon Crisis (1958)
3. Bay of Pigs Invasion (1961)
4. Simba Rebellion (1964) Location: Democratic Republic of the Congo
5. Dominican Civil War (1965–1966) Location: Dominican Republic
6. Vietnam War (1965–1973, 1975)
7. Communist insurgency in Thailand (1965–1983) Location: Thailand
8. Korean DMZ Conflict (1966-1969) Location: Korean Demilitarized Zone
9. Shaba II (1978) Location: Zaire (present-day Democratic Republic of the Congo)
10. Multinational Force in Lebanon (1982-1984) Part of the Lebanese Civil War
11. Invasion of Grenada (1983)
12. Tanker War (1987–1988) Location: Persian Gulf
13. Invasion of Panama (1989–1990)
14. Gulf War (1990–1991) Location: Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Israel
15. Somali Civil War (1992–1995) Location: Somalia
16. Intervention in Haiti (1994–1995) Location: Haiti
17. Bosnian War (1994–1995) Part of the Yugoslav Wars Location: Bosnia and Herzegovina
18. Kosovo War (1998–1999) Part of the Yugoslav Wars
19. War in Afghanistan (2001–2014) Part of the War on Terror Location: Afghanistan
20. Iraq War (2003–2011) Part of the Iraqi Insurgency and War on Terror Location: Iraq
21. War in North-West Pakistan (2004–present) Part of the War on Terror Location: Pakistan
22. Libyan Civil War (2011) Part of the Libyan Crisis
23. War on ISIL (Operation Inherent Resolve) (2014–present) Part of the Iraqi Civil War, Syrian Civil War, Second Libyan Civil War, Boko Haram insurgency
24. War in Afghanistan (2015–present)

Quote: Pacomartin

I imagine a war with Iran might be worse than any way since WWII. Maybe even the Vietnam war. There are 83 million people in Iran.

Iran could be strangled with a naval blockade fairly easily. But it is a mountain country, movement of troops on a large scale would be very difficult. Invasion would be impossible without Arab cooperation, which could or could not happen. As Saddam Hussein learned, people are as cheap to Iran as bullets--it could look like Stalingrad.

Our best hope could be that we find some grandson of the Shah and get people to rally to him.

Quote: AZDuffman

Our best hope could be that we find some grandson of the Shah and get people to rally to him.

That is a hearts and minds strategy.
I suggest you watch that recent movie about Benghazi: "Hearts and Minds"...the two best places to shoot someone.

Quote: Fleastiff

That is a hearts and minds strategy.

Maybe, though that is not how I was thinking about it. My thinking is some societies want to follow royalty so bad they will calm down as soon as the royal is put back on the throne. Heck, it happens in the USA. It is some weird societal thing.