Foreign born as a percentage of population

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April 4th, 2017 at 6:45:50 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 313
Posts: 10666
Quote: Pacomartin
With Latinos in the USA, Bush, the younger, was the most popular Republican President.


The Mexican press wasted so much rhetoric on him, they fell short for Golden Boy.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
April 4th, 2017 at 7:00:37 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 689
Posts: 7926


I don't know how Jeb Bush came off in Mexican media. I assume positively, but I don't know.

When Schwarzenegger was governor of California, there was a joke that there was two governors of California (Alta and Baja) and only one of them could speak proper English.
- I didn't say it was a funny joke.
April 4th, 2017 at 7:15:35 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 313
Posts: 10666
Quote: Pacomartin
I don't know how Jeb Bush came off in Mexican media. I assume positively, but I don't know.


I think 90% of the population has no idea he even exists, and the rest think he's the former president.

As to Mexicans, I doubt he registers high enough to matter.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
April 4th, 2017 at 8:43:44 AM permalink
kenarman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 3
Posts: 832
Quote: TheCesspit
He's not -that- bad. I'd guess he was the least worst option for you after Harper?


Please explain how going from a $1B surplus to a $28B deficit in a year is "not-that-bad".
"There is no sin but ignorance" Christopher Marlow
April 4th, 2017 at 8:57:17 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 313
Posts: 10666
Quote: kenarman
Please explain how going from a $1B surplus to a $28B deficit in a year is "not-that-bad".


Have you seen the trillion-level deficits to the south?

Compared to that, 28B Canadian is not that bad.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
April 4th, 2017 at 9:50:40 AM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
Quote: kenarman
Please explain how going from a $1B surplus to a $28B deficit in a year is "not-that-bad".


If it's improving the general infrastructure. What percentage of GDP is it? (edit: about 2%). That's around the sort of deficit I expect a country to run at.

It's not sustainable if it increases, but I'd prefer the government to spend money to help it's citizens and create a sustainable economy than cut taxes excessively and not protect the vulnerable.

So, yeah, not the bad over Harper's illiberal, anti charter policies that were often to the detriment of the many.

Would you have preferred the NDP or the Green Party?

Personally, I think Canada runs best under a minority coalition. When Harper's conservatives had the brake of having to justify itself, it did a pretty good job of the economy during the recession. When it had a majority, it did a bad job on social policy with an average job on the finances.

We will see if they can reform themselves under new leadership. If they go for budget Trump (O'leary) then I have the fear. Unlike Trump, Leary's business acumen is questioalnable. And he has much less of the charisma.

If Trudeau does become a free spending Liberal, he'll not last. The liberal party has tended to be more economically conservative historically.
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
April 4th, 2017 at 12:20:37 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 313
Posts: 10666
Quote: TheCesspit
Unlike Trump, Leary's business acumen is questioalnable.


You think golden Boy has business acumen??
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
April 4th, 2017 at 12:21:13 PM permalink
kenarman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 3
Posts: 832
Quote: TheCesspit
If it's improving the general infrastructure. What percentage of GDP is it? (edit: about 2%). That's around the sort of deficit I expect a country to run at.


Not sure of your math but the latest federal revenue figure was 28.7B which puts the deficit at 10% not 2%.
"There is no sin but ignorance" Christopher Marlow
April 4th, 2017 at 12:37:31 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 689
Posts: 7926
Quote: kenarman
Not sure of your math but the latest federal revenue figure was 28.7B which puts the deficit at 10% not 2%.


2015 Budget of the Canadian Federal Government
Total revenue 290.3 billion
Total expenditures 288.9 billion
Surplus 1.4 billion

2016 Budget of the Canadian Federal Government
Total revenue 287.7 billion (requested)
Total expenditures 317.1 billion (requested)
Deficit 29.4 billion

2017 Budget of the Canadian Federal Government
Total revenue 304.7 billion (projected)
Total expenditures 330.2 billion (projected)
Deficit 28.5 billion

Years 2011-2015
GDP (CAD billions) 1,808.6 1,839.6 1,918.3 1,992.6 1,991.6
Population (thousands) 34,302 34,697 35,102 35,496 35,821
GDP per capita (CAD) 52,726 53,019 54,651 56,137 55,600

Looks like the Canadian deficit is about 1.5% GDP to me (assuming GDP for 2016 and 2017 are not much different than previous years)

Even the USA deficit only reached 10% of GDP in 2009
Year GDP billions / Deficit
2001 10,564.6 +1.2%
2002 10,876.9 -1.5%
2003 11,332.4 -3.3%
2004 12,088.6 -3.4%
2005 12,888.9 -2.5%
2006 13,684.7 -1.8%
2007 14,322.9 -1.1%
2008 14,752.4 -3.1%
2009 14,414.6 -9.8% <---------------------
2010 14,798.5 -8.7%
2011 15,379.2 -8.5%
2012 16,027.2 -6.8%
2013 16,498.1 -4.1%
2014 17,183.5 -2.8%
2015 17,803.4 -2.5%
2016 estimate 18,472.0 -3.3%
2017 estimate 19,302.8 -2.6%
2018 estimate 20,129.6 -2.3%
2019 estimate 21,012.6 -2.6%
2020 estimate 21,921.4 -2.4%

Numbers from Obama's last budget

The worst deficits were over 20% in WWII

1941 116.2 -4.3%
1942 147.7 -13.9%
1943 184.6 -29.6%
1944 213.8 -22.2%
1945 226.4 -21.0%
1946 228.0 -7.0%
1947 238.9 1.7%
1948 262.4 4.5%
1949 276.8 0.2%
April 4th, 2017 at 2:14:26 PM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
Quote: kenarman
Not sure of your math but the latest federal revenue figure was 28.7B which puts the deficit at 10% not 2%.


Was looking at it as a percentage of GDP, not government revenue. GDP is a lot larger (about five times it seems).

If your annual deficit runs at a small enough figure compared to inflation, the total deficit as a percentage of GDP becomes static. Of course you don't want the total deficit to get too high (I've seen fifty percent of GDP as quoted as reasonable, but different countries seem to copenwith different total Debt loads, as I'm sure the US is over 80%). I'd be worried about the long term trend, not a single year.

What changed? Spending? Tax revenues? Why? Tax cuts, lower tax tale due to a recession? Higher costs due to boom? Broken policies? Failure to meet a promise?

So, I'd say Trudeau is not so bad, based on what I believe a government should be doing, and how I believe government economics should work.
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
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