Foreign born as a percentage of population

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April 4th, 2017 at 4:42:17 PM permalink
kenarman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 3
Posts: 981
I missed that you were a percentage of GDP which is often the measure. I don't believe that is a reasonable metric but I am likely in the minority. Is your annual spending 10% borrowed money? That sounds like a losers game to me. If (probably when) interests rates get back to historical average levels our annual deficit will double or triple with the increase in interest rates.

You and I probably are quite far apart in the political spectrum Cesspit. A spoilt rich kid who became a teacher and thus has never lived in the real world is not who I want for my PM.
"There is no sin but ignorance" Christopher Marlow
April 4th, 2017 at 5:11:46 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 744
Posts: 8747
Quote: kenarman
If (probably when) interests rates get back to historical average levels our annual deficit will double or triple with the increase in interest rates.


That is a worldwide problem. Only a few countries have relatively low debt to GDP ratio.

2015 (except Japan 2014)
Australia : 37.64% debt-to-GDP ratio
China : 42.92% debt-to-GDP ratio
Mexico : 54.0% debt-to-GDP ratio
Germany : 71.2% debt-to-GDP ratio
United Kingdom : 89.1% debt-to-GDP ratio
Canada : 91.5% debt-to-GDP ratio
United States : 105.2% debt-to-GDP ratio
Portugal : 129% debt-to-GDP ratio
Greece : 177.4% debt-to-GDP ratio
Japan : 249.11% debt-to-GDP ratio
April 4th, 2017 at 6:32:02 PM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
Quote: kenarman
I missed that you were a percentage of GDP which is often the measure. I don't believe that is a reasonable metric but I am likely in the minority. Is your annual spending 10% borrowed money? That sounds like a losers game to me. If (probably when) interests rates get back to historical average levels our annual deficit will double or triple with the increase in interest rates.


The deficit, as Paco shows, at 90% of GDP is too high. I'll agree with that. I thought it was much lower (Thsi source says 31% - The federal debt (the difference between total liabilities and total assets) stood at $616.0 billion at March 31, 2016. The federal debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio was 31.1 per cent, up slightly from the previous year. https://www.fin.gc.ca/afr-rfa/2016/report-rapport-eng.asp).

Note that Harper's government ran deficits for six straight years. The Conservatives can't lay claim to being the party of low spending. It's what you spend it on that's probably as important.

Governmental economics are not the same as personal finances.

Quote:
You and I probably are quite far apart in the political spectrum Cesspit. A spoilt rich kid who became a teacher and thus has never lived in the real world is not who I want for my PM.


That would mean you are either fiscally very liberal or very conservative and very socially conservative then. I'd describe myself as closest to the traditional Canadian Liberal party, but probably a bit more of a social democrat.

Which is why I am curious who you would want, and why.


I'd argue teachers do live in the real world... whole slices of real world happen in schools. He did work at a private school, but also on-call for the Vancouver School Board. Were you a fan of Harper? Which Conservative leader do you want to run the country?
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
April 4th, 2017 at 6:32:55 PM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
Quote: Pacomartin
That is a worldwide problem. Only a few countries have relatively low debt to GDP ratio.

2015 (except Japan 2014)
Australia : 37.64% debt-to-GDP ratio
China : 42.92% debt-to-GDP ratio
Mexico : 54.0% debt-to-GDP ratio
Germany : 71.2% debt-to-GDP ratio
United Kingdom : 89.1% debt-to-GDP ratio
Canada : 91.5% debt-to-GDP ratio
United States : 105.2% debt-to-GDP ratio
Portugal : 129% debt-to-GDP ratio
Greece : 177.4% debt-to-GDP ratio
Japan : 249.11% debt-to-GDP ratio


Source, as Canada's government quotes it as 31%.... for federal deficit.
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
April 4th, 2017 at 7:33:15 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 744
Posts: 8747
Quote: TheCesspit
Source, as Canada's government quotes it as 31%.... for federal deficit.

Defining terms, deficit is for one year, debt is for cumulative. If interest rates go up, then you must pay on your debt.

The International Monetary Fund cites two measures
(1) Total (Gross) government debt as % of GDP
(2) Net government debt as % of GDP

I was using the first definition in my table which is over 90% for Canada, while you are using the 2nd measure

This rather lengthy video explains the difference between gross and net debt. Net debt takes government assets into consideration which can IN THEORY be used to pay off the debt. Net debt is theoretical number that involves the government liquidating it's assets. However, when you are discussing interest rates going up, they will have an effect on gross debt.


Quote: TheCesspit
The deficit, as Paco shows, at 90% of GDP is too high. I'll agree with that. I thought it was much lower (Thsi source says 31% - The federal debt (the difference between total liabilities and total assets) stood at $616.0 billion at March 31, 2016.


See you are using the "difference between total liabilities and total assets". In reality the government is never going to liquidate it's assets, so you have to pay interest on your liabilities.

List of countries by public debt
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt
April 4th, 2017 at 8:18:34 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 330
Posts: 11585
Quote: Pacomartin
That is a worldwide problem. Only a few countries have relatively low debt to GDP ratio.


I wouldn't have imagined Mexico has a lower debt to GDP ration than the US.

Though anyone with business experience knows that the important thing about debt is not how much you have, but how able you're to pay it.

Here's a measure I'd like to see, though. How much of your country would you have to sell to pay off the debt?
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
April 4th, 2017 at 9:32:22 PM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
Thanks Paco, makes sense.
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
April 5th, 2017 at 7:03:43 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 744
Posts: 8747
Quote: Nareed
I wouldn't have imagined Mexico has a lower debt to GDP ration than the US.


I'm surprised that surprises you. From my perspective that has been Mexico's major claim to fiscal prudence.

Now Canada and Mexico have very different gross debt to GDP ratios (Canada is much higher than Mexico), but they have almost the same net debt to GDP ratio as Canadian government has far more assets than the Mexican government (including holdings in foreign currency reserves).

USA has relatively few assets as a percent of GDP. The gold reserves are only worth piddly in the modern world. USA sees no real reason to have foreign reserves because the dollar is the primary reserve currency.
April 5th, 2017 at 7:18:07 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 330
Posts: 11585
Quote: Pacomartin
I'm surprised that surprises you. From my perspective that has been Mexico's major claim to fiscal prudence.


My surprise is the US owes that much debt.

I wonder how much is now owned by foreigners Golden Boy is trying to piss off.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
April 6th, 2017 at 6:22:12 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 744
Posts: 8747
Quote: Nareed
My surprise is the US owes that much debt.


This website keeps track of national debt around the world. I think it is "net debt" which subtracts assets.
http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/mexico

Canada as of 23 March 2017 has USD$83.226 in foreign reserves of which $49.7 billion are in actual USD.
Mexico’s has US$179 billion in foreign exchange reserves which is larger than the USA's $116 billion.

China has around $3 trillion in foreign reserves while Japan has over $1 trillion. The exact makeup of many foreign reserve accounts is often secret, although Canada makes a point of sharing how much it has in USD.

It is generally accepted that if China and Japan stop buying US treasury bonds (let alone selling some that they hold), the impact on US and World economy would be huge.
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