North Korea -- What should be do?

Quote: AZDuffman

Lets try this another way.

You get only government TV and radio
You cannot telephone to the outside world
There is only a government newspaper
There is no internet
You have talked to nobody outside the country
The government runs every school at every level

You know only what the government has told you, from birth.

Will you know the truth?

They will know when they go to bed hungry and cold. They will know when the a family member disappears with the police and never comes back. They will see that some people in the country have a better life and desire a better life. They will know to keep their mouth shut. They will hope for reunification even if they believe the government line that the USA is what keeps it from happening (which is true).

There was a story awhile back of a
guy that escaped to SK to warn
family about the evil Americans.
It took him about 2 weeks to wrap
his mind around the fact he'd been
completely lied to all his life. After
that he was fine with the new world.

It seems like we can safely assume that Jong-un is going to set a Nero decree which will launch missiles at multiple targets if he is assassinated, captured or under attack.

The Nero Decree (German: Nerobefehl) was issued by Adolf Hitler on March 19, 1945 (6 weeks before his suicide) ordering the destruction of German infrastructure to prevent their use by Allied forces as they penetrated deep within Germany. It's unofficial name was Roman Emperor Nero, who supposedly engineered the Great Fire of Rome in 64 AD. The decree was deliberately disobeyed by Albert Speer.

This was not the first time Hitler had tried to destroy infrastructure before it could be taken. Shortly before the Liberation of Paris, Hitler ordered explosives to be placed around important landmarks, such as the Eiffel Tower, and key transportation hubs. If the Allies came near the city, the military governor, Dietrich von Choltitz was to detonate these bombs, leaving Paris "lying in complete debris." Von Choltitz, however, did not carry out the order and surrendered to the Allies.



Jong-Un probably can't automate the entire process, but he could easily employ his most trusted aides in the chain of command. The technology to build a better dead man's switch has come a long way since the term was invented. If he fails to enter a code at regular intervals, the process may begin


I am trying to get used to the idea that war is probably inevitable in this presidential term. I don't think President Trump is going to wait until Un completes the network.

I'm worried about South Korea and Japan developing their own nuclear weapons to have as a deterrent. They may not believe a Trump administration would really extend their nuclear umbrella seriously.

I know they wouldn't use them aggressively, but it still wouldn't be good. For one thing, it increases the chances of a nuclear exchange by mistake or overreaction. But int he first place, China would really don't like it, especially as regards Japan. The region doesn't need more tensions.

The little fat guy is being so bold
because the Olympics start in
S Korea in 2 months and he knows
nothing will happen to him because
he could totally disrupt them if he
wanted to. And nobody wants that.

As someone said, and I'm surprised it's not talked about by President, generals or congress.

Quote:

Dead Hand, also known as Perimeter, was a Cold War-era automatic nuclear-control system used by the Soviet Union. General speculation from insiders alleges that the system remains in use in the post-Soviet Russian Federation as well. An example of fail-deadly and mutual assured destruction deterrence, it can automatically trigger the launch of the Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles by sending a pre-entered highest-authority order from the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Strategic Mis

The threat is not that we can't utterly destroy him, it's all the damn damage he could still cause even if we do.

Quote: Nareed

I'm worried about South Korea and Japan developing their own nuclear weapons to have as a deterrent.

I don't think that is a realistic concern. Japan, for obvious reasons, is violently against nuclear weapons. They are very likely to increase their limitations on conventional bombs.

I think the concept of a unified Korea goes back to 676AD, and the desire of North Korea is to rule the entire Korean peninsula. I doubt very much that they would use nuclear weapons on South Korea, as their goal is not to destroy it. For similar reasons, I don't think South Korea would develop nuclear weapons to fight an enemy that is only 200 km away from Seoul.

Quote: Pacomartin

I don't think that is a realistic concern. Japan, for obvious reasons, is violently against nuclear weapons. They are very likely to increase their limitations on conventional bombs.

I believe South Korea is already asking the US to base tactical nukes in the peninsula. Japan has reasons to not want nukes, but it has even more reason not to want a third nuclear strike in their territory.

Quote:

I doubt very much that they would use nuclear weapons on South Korea, as their goal is not to destroy it. For similar reasons, I don't think South Korea would develop nuclear weapons to fight an enemy that is only 200 km away from Seoul.

If the intent is to take over the South, they wouldn't nuke Seoul. But they can nuke Busan or some other city, leaving plenty of South to take over. For the South, their own nuclear arsenal provides direct deterrence, without having to trust in trump's erratic good graces.

I thought you'd point out Israel has had nukes for decades, and her neighbors haven't developed their own. Partly that's because Israel has worked hard to prevent them.

Kim is never going to normalize N. Korea.

Because there's no way he won't be killed by his own people if he loosens his grip. He's killed senior officers or imprisoned them. I can't imagine he even has a small core of reliable supporters.

I think the only way to get him out peacefully is offer a safe outside country to him and his family. But I don't think that will happen either.

So, non-peacefully, coup, assassinations' or war.

Quote: rxwine

Kim is never going to normalize N. Korea.

Because there's no way he won't be killed by his own people if he loosens his grip. He's killed senior officers or imprisoned them. I can't imagine he even has a small core of reliable supporters.

I think the only way to get him out peacefully is offer a safe outside country to him and his family. But I don't think that will happen either.

So, non-peacefully, coup, assassinations' or war.

He might do better to wait things out. Seeing this post I just checked. N. Korea fertility rate is 1.9 per woman. Care to guess S. Korea? 1.17! That is lower than China with it's famous "One Child" policy, now relaxed. Lower than the "the kids are not even flirting" Japan who is at 1.44. His neighbor to the south is going to die out generations sooner.

I would have flipped those rates. This fertility rate thing is fascinating when you start to dig in.