Presidential Trivia question

June 21st, 2017 at 7:18:41 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Posts: 12569
Incumbency is regarded as a valuable asset when running for POTUS.

Donald Trump is POTUS #45, Grover Cleveland was both POTUS #22 and #24, and four men died in office.
Five times the POTUS refused to run for a second term.
Four times the incumbent POTUS was not nominated, all but one was when they got the Presidency by death of the sitting POTUS,

That leaves 30 incumbent POTUS's that ran for election, with all the power and attention of already holding the office.
(I am not counting two losses: Teddy Roosevelt's run in 1912 or Millard Fillmore's run in 1856 . These were former President's but not incumbents).

Hint: Grover Cleveland obviously lost while he was incumbent, but won four years later.

Out of the 30 men, how many incumbent presidents lost an election for POTUS? An exact answer is difficult, but acceptable to guess within +/- 4.
Can you name the incumbent Presidents in the last hundred years that have lost an election?



answer=10 total, five in the last century

George H. W. Bush
Jimmy Carter
Gerald Ford
Herbert Hoover
William Howard Taft


While some elections involving an incumbent POTUS were landslides (FDR, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan), many of them were extremely close calls. For most of the close elections you could pick out one issue that may have determined the outcome.

1 Incumbent President who failed to be nominated for re-election and four years later lost an election
Millard Fillmore 969 #13 Served the remaining 2 years, 7 months, and 23 days of Taylor's term. Lost nomination for a full term in 1852. Lost election in 1856.

4 Incumbent Presidents who were not nominated for re-election
John Tyler 1,430 #10 Served the remaining 3 years and 11 months of William H. Harrison's term. Lost nomination for a full term.
Franklin Pierce 1,461 #14 Served one full term. Lost renomination.
Andrew Johnson 1,419 #17 Served the remaining 3 years, 10 months, and 17 days of Lincoln's second term. Lost nomination for a full term.
Chester A. Arthur 1,262 #21 Served the remaining 3 years, 5 months, and 13 days of Garfield's term. Lost nomination for a full term.

4 Incumbent Presidents who were did not seek second term
James K. Polk 1,461 #11 Served one full term. Did not seek a second term.
James Buchanan 1,461 #15 Served one full term. Did not seek a second term.
Rutherford B. Hayes 1,461 #19 Served one full term. Did not seek a second term.
Lyndon B. Johnson 1,886 #36 Served the remaining 1 year, 1 month, and 29 days of Kennedy's term. Served a full term. Withdrew from the race for renomination.

9 Incumbent Presidents who lost a re-election vote
George H. W. Bush 1,461 #41 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
Jimmy Carter 1,461 #39 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
Gerald Ford 895 #38 Served the remaining 2 years, 5 months, and 11 days of Nixon's second term. Lost election for a full term.
Herbert Hoover 1,461 #31 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
William Howard Taft 1,461 #27 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
Benjamin Harrison 1,461 #23 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
Martin Van Buren 1,461 #8 Served one full term. Lost reelection (twice).
John Quincy Adams 1,461 #6 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
John Adams 1,460 #2 Served one full term. Lost reelection.

20 Incumbent Presidents who were re-elected (days in office)
George Washington 2,865
Thomas Jefferson 2,922
James Madison 2,922
James Monroe 2,922
Andrew Jackson 2,922
Abraham Lincoln 1,503
Ulysses S. Grant 2,922
William McKinley 1,654
Theodore Roosevelt 2,728
Calvin Coolidge 2,041
Woodrow Wilson 2,922
Franklin D. Roosevelt 4,422
Harry S. Truman 2,840
Dwight D. Eisenhower 2,922
Lyndon B. Johnson 1,886
Richard Nixon 2,027
Ronald Reagan 2,922
Bill Clinton 2,922
George W. Bush 2,922
Barack Obama 2,922

1 former Presidents but not incumbents who were re-elected (days in office)
Grover Cleveland 2,922
Grover Cleveland was both POTUS #22 and #24.

4 Presidents died in office, and Donald Trump has not completed first term.
June 21st, 2017 at 8:48:07 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
The way you have it worded you can
include Nixon. He was an incumbent
president that lost a presidential
election in 1960.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
June 22nd, 2017 at 1:03:38 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Evenbob
The way you have it worded you can
include Nixon. He was an incumbent
president that lost a presidential
election in 1960.


An incumbent is someone who "holds or possesses" an office at the time in question. It is not someone who ever had in the past or will have in the future held the office.

Teddy Roosevelt was not the incumbent president in 1912. He was a past president.
June 22nd, 2017 at 2:48:50 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Americans like the familiar.

Even when FDR made the depression worse, he got re-elected. That one I never got.
The President is a fink.
June 22nd, 2017 at 5:33:58 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: AZDuffman
Americans like the familiar.


I think in general most countries prefer continuity over change.

But out of the last 8 Presidents, 3 incumbents lost election bids.

Barack Obama 2,922 #44
George W. Bush 2,922 #43
Bill Clinton 2,922 #42
George H. W. Bush 1,461 #41 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
Ronald Reagan 2,922 #40
Jimmy Carter 1,461 #39 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
Gerald Ford 895 #38 Served the remaining 2 years, 5 months, and 11 days of Nixon's second term. Lost election for a full term.
Richard Nixon 2,027 #37
June 22nd, 2017 at 5:49:59 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Pacomartin
I think in general most countries prefer continuity over change.

But out of the last 8 Presidents, 3 incumbents lost election bids.

Barack Obama 2,922 #44
George W. Bush 2,922 #43
Bill Clinton 2,922 #42
George H. W. Bush 1,461 #41 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
Ronald Reagan 2,922 #40
Jimmy Carter 1,461 #39 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
Gerald Ford 895 #38 Served the remaining 2 years, 5 months, and 11 days of Nixon's second term. Lost election for a full term.
Richard Nixon 2,027 #37


I's qualify some of this. Ford was never elected. Bush41 lost but his replacement only received 43% of the vote.

Carter was toast because of Iran maybe more than anything, though his administration was a near-total disaster. He lost on his own lack of merit, but goes to show just how bad things need to be. I was seriously amazed Obama won what with the unemployment situation during his entire first term, along with foreign policy failures. He had a better personality than Carter, which probably is why he survived.
The President is a fink.
June 22nd, 2017 at 6:55:30 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Quote: Pacomartin
But out of the last 8 Presidents, 3 incumbents lost election bids.


The other thing those 3 have in common is they were challenged in the primaries within their own party. In chronological order the challengers were Reagan, Kennedy and Goering (that last one looks right, but I think he goes by some other name, maybe Göring?)
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
June 22nd, 2017 at 8:05:08 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
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Posts: 6095
Quote: Pacomartin
Out of the 30 men, how many incumbent presidents lost an election for POTUS?



I interpret this to mean how many times has a sitting president lost an election for re-election. Let's see...



George H.W. Bush lost to Clinton in 1992.
Jimmy Carter lost to Reagan in 1980.
Gerald Ford lost to Carter in 1976.
I think Hoover lost to FDR in 1932, but I'm not sure.

That is as far back as I can go. I'm going to guess that 1/3 of those 30 lost an election, so my guess is 10.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
June 22nd, 2017 at 12:55:58 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Wizard
I interpret this to mean how many times has a sitting president lost an election for re-election. Let's see...


Correct interpretation and perfect answer.

Ford was a sitting President. The fact that he was not elected, does not affect that he was still an incumbent President.

Teddy Roosevelt and Taft both lost in 1912, but only Taft was an incumbent president. Roosevelt had voluntarily chosen not to run in 1908 out of deference to the tradition that nobody should be President for more than 8 years. Teddy changed his mind in 1912, but his party chose to nominate the incumbent, Taft. Subsequently Teddy chose to run with his own party and split the vote thus handing the election to Woodrow Wilson.

10 Incumbent Presidents who lost a re-election vote (Full list counting backwards)
George H. W. Bush #41 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
Jimmy Carter #39 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
Gerald Ford #38 Served the remaining 2 years, 5 months, and 11 days of Nixon's second term. Lost election for a full term.
Herbert Hoover #31 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
William Howard Taft #27 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
Benjamin Harrison #23 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
Grover Cleveland (#22 and #24) lost as an incumbent, but won four years later
Martin Van Buren #8 Served one full term. Lost reelection (twice).
John Quincy Adams #6 Served one full term. Lost reelection.
John Adams #2 Served one full term. Lost reelection.

20 Incumbent Presidents who were re-elected (days in office)
George Washington 2,865
Thomas Jefferson 2,922
James Madison 2,922
James Monroe 2,922
==============================> end of founding fathers
Andrew Jackson 2,922
Abraham Lincoln 1,503
Ulysses S. Grant 2,922
==============================> end of mid 19th century
William McKinley 1,654
Theodore Roosevelt 2,728
Calvin Coolidge 2,041
Woodrow Wilson 2,922
Franklin D. Roosevelt 4,422
==============================> end of pre WWII in 20th century
Harry S. Truman 2,840
Dwight D. Eisenhower 2,922
Lyndon B. Johnson 1,886
Richard Nixon 2,027
Ronald Reagan 2,922
Bill Clinton 2,922
George W. Bush 2,922
Barack Obama 2,922

Incumbency seems to be an assett, but only 2/3 of the time