So you want to fight a nuclear war

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August 17th, 2017 at 9:44:17 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
How do you go about it?

Let's take the classic case and consider the USA and USSR as combatants.

First of all, someone has to start the war by shooting first. In this case, there's a minimal difference if one or the other side goes first, so let's say the Soviets shoot first.

Good. Now, what do they shoot at? To begin with, those things in the USA that can hurt the USSR, meaning the USA's ICBMs. So, do you know where they all are? Of course you do. Missile silos are easy to spot from orbit, and you have spy satellites. Ah, but the USA also has a fleet of long-range bombers, same as you do, armed with nuclear bombs. That's ok. You're starting this war and know to take precautions. So you have interceptors on patrol and more on stand-by, and you also have lots and lots of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs).

Now this is where it gets tricky. The USA also has a fleet of ballistic missile submarines, each of which carries a number of nuclear-tipped submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Unfortunately many of them are currently on patrol underwater, and you can't find them. You may find one or two near their bases, and some are in port, but most will easily ride out your attack.

So you go after the people who can order the subs to attack with their SLBMs, and the facilities that can even communicate with the submerged subs. The president, of course, the vice-president, the military top brass, and a whole lot of bureaucrats with launch authority in various agencies.

Uhm. This is starting to look dicey. Surely you won't get them all. And chances are the subs could launch a counterstrike, even if days later, even after you launch a second strike to go after the enemy's industrial base. That's much more widespread, so I hope you saved lots of ICBMs. You have nuclear-capable long range bombers too, but the enemy has interceptors and SAMs as well.

That's quite a pickle.

And all this if the USA doesn't launch a retaliatory strike even before your first wave of ICBMs hit their target.

Damn. this is a lot harder than just pushing a button.

Oh, and even if you succeed and take only minimal damage in return (no chance of getting zero damage), the most likely scenario si that Earth will enter a nuclear winter due to all the tons of dirt and dust your first strike will kick up into the atmosphere. And that will hurt you a lot more than even a few dozen nukes reaching the USSR.

You'd better have a damned good reason to push that button, then.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
August 17th, 2017 at 10:46:48 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
What to do if you're North Korea?

To begin with, with only 60 nukes and a handful of missiles, maybe some ICBMs among them, and no long range bomber fleet nor missile submarines, there's no way in hell, no way, you can keep the USA from retaliating. No way at all. None. You could hurt them very badly, assuming even all your 60 nukes hit their targets and they all detonate and reach their design yield (big ifs). But in return the USA can wipe you clean off the face of the Earth.

Well, not "clean." a lot of the damage they'd do to you would spread to South Korea, China and nearby countries. But you'd be dead or dying then.

You could destroy South Korea with 60 nukes and a handful of missiles. The South has no nukes at all. and the same goes for japan (but not both). But 1) chances are the USA would still wipe you off the map in retaliation and 2) what does that gain you? You're going to reunify with a corpse? Be serious. and who knows what China would do. Wiping you off the map (which they can also do easily) just may solve their problems with you.

So the best you can hope for is nuclear blackmail. You know, foreign aid in exchange for not destroying a US city and/or South Korea. This would incense many people the world over, and may get them to convince some of your people to try a coup. So would threatening to make your nuclear know-how be fruitful and proliferate. As in selling designs and/or materials to other countries or terrorist groups.

Realistically, the best you can do is deterrence. "If you attack me, I'll nuke Seoul and Washington."

That would work.

But, do you really need to spend that much money on nukes and missiles to keep up the pretense that either the USA or South Korea can't wait to reenact the meat-grinder of the 1950s just to topple you?

Man, you're a bigger fucking moron than Donald Trump.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
August 17th, 2017 at 11:34:07 AM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 189
Posts: 18751
The Japanese survivor stories are just a series of horrors.

Quote:
Mr. Akihiro Takahashi was 14 years old, when the bomb was dropped. He was standing in line with other students of his junior high school, waiting for the morning meeting 1.4 km away from the center. He was under medical treatment for about year and half. And even today black nail grows at his finger tip, where a piece of glass was stuck.

The heat was tremendous . And I felt like my body was burning all over. For my burning body the cold water of the river was as precious as the treasure. Then I left the river, and I walked along the railroad tracks in the direction of my home. On the way, I ran into an another friend of mine, Tokujiro Hatta. I wondered why the soles of his feet were badly burnt. It was unthinkable to get burned there. But it was undeniable fact the soles were peeling and red muscle was exposed. Even I myself was terribly burnt, I could not go home ignoring him. I made him crawl using his arms and knees. Next, I made him stand on his heels and I supported him. We walked heading toward my home repeating the two methods. When we were resting because we were so exhausted, I found my grandfather's brother and his wife, in other words, great uncle and great aunt, coming toward us. That was quite coincidence. As you know, we have a proverb about meeting Buddha in Hell. My encounter with my relatives at that time was just like that. They seem to be the Buddha to me wandering in the living hell.

Eiko Taoka, then 21, was one of nearly 100 passengers said to have been on board a streetcar that had left Hiroshima Station at a little after 8:00 a.m. and was in a Hatchobori area, 750 m from ground zero, when the bomb fell. Taoka was heading for Funairi with her one year old son to secure wagon in preparation for her move out of the building which was to be evacuated. At 8:15, as the streetcar approached Hatchobori Station, an intense flash and blast engulfed the car, instantly setting it on fire. Taoka’s son died of radiation sickness on August 28. The survival of only ten people on the streetcar have been confirmed to date.
When we were near in Hatchobori and since I had been holding my son in my arms, the young woman in front of me said, ‘I will be getting off here. Please take this seat.’ We were just changing places when there was a strange smell and sound. It suddenly became dark and before I knew it, I had jumped outside.... I held [my son] firmly and looked down on him. He had been standing by the window and I think fragments of glass had pierced his head. His face was a mess because of the blood flowing from his head. But he looked at my face and smiled. His smile has remained glued in my memory. He did not comprehend what had happened. And so he looked at me and smiled at my face which was all bloody. I had plenty of milk which he drank all throughout that day. I think my child sucked the poison right out of my body. And soon after that he died. Yes, I think that he died for me.

Ms. Akiko Takakura was 20 years old when the bomb fell. She was in the Bank of Hiroshima, 300 meters away from the hypocenter. Ms. Takakura miraculously escaped death despite over 100 lacerated wounds on her back. She is one of the few survivors who was within 300 meters of the hypocenter. She now runs a kindergarten and she relates her experience of the atomic bombing to children.

Many people on the street were killed almost instantly. The fingertips of those dead bodies caught fire and the fire gradually spread over their entire bodies from their fingers. A light gray liquid dripped down their hands, scorching their fingers. I, I was so shocked to know that fingers and bodies could be burned and deformed like that. I just couldn't believe it. It was horrible. And looking at it, it was more than painful for me to think how the fingers were burned, hands and fingers that would hold babies or turn pages, they just, they just burned away. For a few years after the A-bomb was dropped, I was terribly afraid of fire. I wasn't even able to get close to fire because all my senses remembered how fearful and horrible the fire was, how hot the blaze was, and how hard it was to breathe the hot air. It was really hard to breathe. Maybe because the fire burned all the oxygen, I don't know. I could not open my eyes enough because of the smoke, which was everywhere. Not only me but everyone felt the same. And my parts were covered with holes


http://www.hiroshima-remembered.com/history/hiroshima/page14.html
You believe in an invisible god, and dismiss people who say they are trans? Really?
August 17th, 2017 at 11:53:06 AM permalink
Face
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 61
Posts: 3941
Quote: rxwine
The Japanese survivor stories are just a series of horrors.


I've watched plenty (See also: way too f#$%ing much) of documentaries on it. To say it's a "horror", "terrifying", "repugnant" are all a long damn walk from what it actually is.

Nareed's post is precisely why I don't get all uppity about "Trump having the button". Dude could be freaking out with his comb over all a flutter; I trust there's sane folk around that'll do the right thing when needed. I recall a story of a Soviet sub guy who was under during the cold war and received a notice of attack, that of course being his cue to launch one of his own. He stayed his hand and likely prevented WWIII. I'm sure some of you have heard this one. I cannot envision our servicemen being any different.

I do like the MAD situation of having them, but I'm not sure I could get behind using one even if it was used on us first. I mean, maybe Russia, as they do have the nukes and manpower and etc to actually bring us down. But Phat Phuk? With his handful of Black Cats and a few fizzy bangers? Loss of our own does not remove us from the responsibility of all the civilians we'd vaporize. And anyone who doesn't care, I urge you to peep one of these docs or stories and still tell me it's OK.
Be bold and risk defeat, or be cautious and encourage it.
August 17th, 2017 at 12:58:32 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Quote: Face
Nareed's post is precisely why I don't get all uppity about "Trump having the button".


Oh, I don't worry he'd nuke his benefactor in Russia. and he's not dumb enough to nuke China. But I do worry he might try to use one against North Korea, Iran or even ISIS. He is that clueless and insensitive.

Fortunately it wouldn't be that easy. Nuclear command authority is not exactly spelled out, but it's not entirely secret. In the US, The president, or Trump in this case, cannot simply order a nuclear bombing.

Many people think that because two nukes ended WWII, then dropping one or two would end any other war. Truth is the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki alone didn't end the war, but rather the prospect of many more such bombings.


Quote:
I do like the MAD situation of having them, but I'm not sure I could get behind using one even if it was used on us first.


The simple fact is that Mutually Assured Destruction doesn't work if the Destruction isn't Mutual.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
August 17th, 2017 at 3:05:06 PM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831
Never bring a knife to a gun fight.

Consider some of the near misses.
The DEW Early Warning line seeing the moon for the first time and indicating hundreds of incoming missles.

The Soviets hearing the President of the US say into an open mike: I've signed legislation: we launch in thirty minutes. Russian generals do not understand humor.
August 17th, 2017 at 3:23:38 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18202
Quote: Face


Nareed's post is precisely why I don't get all uppity about "Trump having the button". Dude could be freaking out with his comb over all a flutter; I trust there's sane folk around that'll do the right thing when needed.


Liberals said the same thing about Reagan. Did anyone mention Obama "maybe having the button after a night of shoving cocaine up his nose?" What about if maybe Hillary "wanted to prove she is as tough as any guy?" They act as though "the button" is on the POTUS desk, and some crazy Republican might hit it and launch when he was looking for the hold button for the phone.

Just the usual playbook.

Quote:
I recall a story of a Soviet sub guy who was under during the cold war and received a notice of attack, that of course being his cue to launch one of his own. He stayed his hand and likely prevented WWIII. I'm sure some of you have heard this one. I cannot envision our servicemen being any different.


It is in a documentary about "Able Archer." Not a sub guy, more their version of NORAD. It is an amazing story.

Tensions were high. If you do not remember pre-Gorbachev USSR relations, how high cannot be explained. This N Korea tension? Multiply it by 5, then imagine it every day for years. Both sides feared the other might launch at any moment.

"Able Archer" was a sort of wargame. It was a total script, to test radio communications, maybe to gauge the USSR response at the same time. Operation Barbarossa happened as part of an exercise, and the leaders of the USSR lived thru that. They were not going to let it happen again.

Meanwhile, the USSR had just shot down KAL 007, playing their usual games as to why and hiding wreckage they found. Room filled with gasoline.

So this commander, the alarm goes off. Then another. Then another. By the third one he disabled, he had to call Androvpov and explain why. His logic was good. Why would the USA launch 5 of thousands of missiles? Imagine everyone doubting you there and if you are wrong, your country is ash.

Saved the world. Got fired.
The President is a fink.
August 17th, 2017 at 4:30:47 PM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831
Quote: rxwine
The Japanese survivor stories are just a series of horrors.
When the Mayor of Nagasaki paid an official visit to Las Vegas he stayed at Caesar's Forum and he accompanied his luggage in the elevator. Upon seeing the name of the luggage-schlepping Bellman and staring intently into his face, the Mayor bowed deeply and invited the Bellman to linger in his room. The personal and official timeschedules were thrown out of whack as the Mayor spent three hours going over the photos the Bellman had brought with him. The Mayor had recognized that the bellman was the son of the first American Army Photographer to make it into Nagasaki.
August 17th, 2017 at 4:37:13 PM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831
Quote: AZDuffman
Saved the world. Got fired.
Military men are supposed to obey orders, not exercise initiative. No General wants his subordinates being interviewed as a hero.
August 17th, 2017 at 4:58:00 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18202
Quote: Fleastiff
Military men are supposed to obey orders, not exercise initiative. No General wants his subordinates being interviewed as a hero.


Not quite so black and white. They are also taught to assess the situation and act as warrants, really so for officers. Curiously, the Russian army, like most non-western ones, does not teach that. Why their pilots are easy pickings, even why India call centers are so god awful. They get a checklist, that is that.

This guy acted western, knew something was wrong (clouds set off the alarm) and acted. Reverse of the pre-credit segment of "War Games," though that guy who disobeyed orders got a WH job 20 years later.
The President is a fink.
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