So you want to fight a nuclear war
August 17th, 2017 at 9:44:17 AM permalink | |
Nareed Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 346 Posts: 12545 | How do you go about it? Let's take the classic case and consider the USA and USSR as combatants. First of all, someone has to start the war by shooting first. In this case, there's a minimal difference if one or the other side goes first, so let's say the Soviets shoot first. Good. Now, what do they shoot at? To begin with, those things in the USA that can hurt the USSR, meaning the USA's ICBMs. So, do you know where they all are? Of course you do. Missile silos are easy to spot from orbit, and you have spy satellites. Ah, but the USA also has a fleet of long-range bombers, same as you do, armed with nuclear bombs. That's ok. You're starting this war and know to take precautions. So you have interceptors on patrol and more on stand-by, and you also have lots and lots of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). Now this is where it gets tricky. The USA also has a fleet of ballistic missile submarines, each of which carries a number of nuclear-tipped submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Unfortunately many of them are currently on patrol underwater, and you can't find them. You may find one or two near their bases, and some are in port, but most will easily ride out your attack. So you go after the people who can order the subs to attack with their SLBMs, and the facilities that can even communicate with the submerged subs. The president, of course, the vice-president, the military top brass, and a whole lot of bureaucrats with launch authority in various agencies. Uhm. This is starting to look dicey. Surely you won't get them all. And chances are the subs could launch a counterstrike, even if days later, even after you launch a second strike to go after the enemy's industrial base. That's much more widespread, so I hope you saved lots of ICBMs. You have nuclear-capable long range bombers too, but the enemy has interceptors and SAMs as well. That's quite a pickle. And all this if the USA doesn't launch a retaliatory strike even before your first wave of ICBMs hit their target. Damn. this is a lot harder than just pushing a button. Oh, and even if you succeed and take only minimal damage in return (no chance of getting zero damage), the most likely scenario si that Earth will enter a nuclear winter due to all the tons of dirt and dust your first strike will kick up into the atmosphere. And that will hurt you a lot more than even a few dozen nukes reaching the USSR. You'd better have a damned good reason to push that button, then. Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER |
August 17th, 2017 at 10:46:48 AM permalink | |
Nareed Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 346 Posts: 12545 | What to do if you're North Korea? To begin with, with only 60 nukes and a handful of missiles, maybe some ICBMs among them, and no long range bomber fleet nor missile submarines, there's no way in hell, no way, you can keep the USA from retaliating. No way at all. None. You could hurt them very badly, assuming even all your 60 nukes hit their targets and they all detonate and reach their design yield (big ifs). But in return the USA can wipe you clean off the face of the Earth. Well, not "clean." a lot of the damage they'd do to you would spread to South Korea, China and nearby countries. But you'd be dead or dying then. You could destroy South Korea with 60 nukes and a handful of missiles. The South has no nukes at all. and the same goes for japan (but not both). But 1) chances are the USA would still wipe you off the map in retaliation and 2) what does that gain you? You're going to reunify with a corpse? Be serious. and who knows what China would do. Wiping you off the map (which they can also do easily) just may solve their problems with you. So the best you can hope for is nuclear blackmail. You know, foreign aid in exchange for not destroying a US city and/or South Korea. This would incense many people the world over, and may get them to convince some of your people to try a coup. So would threatening to make your nuclear know-how be fruitful and proliferate. As in selling designs and/or materials to other countries or terrorist groups. Realistically, the best you can do is deterrence. "If you attack me, I'll nuke Seoul and Washington." That would work. But, do you really need to spend that much money on nukes and missiles to keep up the pretense that either the USA or South Korea can't wait to reenact the meat-grinder of the 1950s just to topple you? Man, you're a bigger fucking moron than Donald Trump. Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER |
August 17th, 2017 at 11:34:07 AM permalink | |
rxwine Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 189 Posts: 18751 | The Japanese survivor stories are just a series of horrors.
http://www.hiroshima-remembered.com/history/hiroshima/page14.html You believe in an invisible god, and dismiss people who say they are trans? Really? |
August 17th, 2017 at 11:53:06 AM permalink | |
Face Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 61 Posts: 3941 |
I've watched plenty (See also: way too f#$%ing much) of documentaries on it. To say it's a "horror", "terrifying", "repugnant" are all a long damn walk from what it actually is. Nareed's post is precisely why I don't get all uppity about "Trump having the button". Dude could be freaking out with his comb over all a flutter; I trust there's sane folk around that'll do the right thing when needed. I recall a story of a Soviet sub guy who was under during the cold war and received a notice of attack, that of course being his cue to launch one of his own. He stayed his hand and likely prevented WWIII. I'm sure some of you have heard this one. I cannot envision our servicemen being any different. I do like the MAD situation of having them, but I'm not sure I could get behind using one even if it was used on us first. I mean, maybe Russia, as they do have the nukes and manpower and etc to actually bring us down. But Phat Phuk? With his handful of Black Cats and a few fizzy bangers? Loss of our own does not remove us from the responsibility of all the civilians we'd vaporize. And anyone who doesn't care, I urge you to peep one of these docs or stories and still tell me it's OK. Be bold and risk defeat, or be cautious and encourage it. |
August 17th, 2017 at 12:58:32 PM permalink | |
Nareed Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 346 Posts: 12545 |
Oh, I don't worry he'd nuke his benefactor in Russia. and he's not dumb enough to nuke China. But I do worry he might try to use one against North Korea, Iran or even ISIS. He is that clueless and insensitive. Fortunately it wouldn't be that easy. Nuclear command authority is not exactly spelled out, but it's not entirely secret. In the US, The president, or Trump in this case, cannot simply order a nuclear bombing. Many people think that because two nukes ended WWII, then dropping one or two would end any other war. Truth is the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki alone didn't end the war, but rather the prospect of many more such bombings.
The simple fact is that Mutually Assured Destruction doesn't work if the Destruction isn't Mutual. Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER |
August 17th, 2017 at 3:05:06 PM permalink | |
Fleastiff Member since: Oct 27, 2012 Threads: 62 Posts: 7831 | Never bring a knife to a gun fight. Consider some of the near misses. The DEW Early Warning line seeing the moon for the first time and indicating hundreds of incoming missles. The Soviets hearing the President of the US say into an open mike: I've signed legislation: we launch in thirty minutes. Russian generals do not understand humor. |
August 17th, 2017 at 3:23:38 PM permalink | |
AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18202 |
Liberals said the same thing about Reagan. Did anyone mention Obama "maybe having the button after a night of shoving cocaine up his nose?" What about if maybe Hillary "wanted to prove she is as tough as any guy?" They act as though "the button" is on the POTUS desk, and some crazy Republican might hit it and launch when he was looking for the hold button for the phone. Just the usual playbook.
It is in a documentary about "Able Archer." Not a sub guy, more their version of NORAD. It is an amazing story. Tensions were high. If you do not remember pre-Gorbachev USSR relations, how high cannot be explained. This N Korea tension? Multiply it by 5, then imagine it every day for years. Both sides feared the other might launch at any moment. "Able Archer" was a sort of wargame. It was a total script, to test radio communications, maybe to gauge the USSR response at the same time. Operation Barbarossa happened as part of an exercise, and the leaders of the USSR lived thru that. They were not going to let it happen again. Meanwhile, the USSR had just shot down KAL 007, playing their usual games as to why and hiding wreckage they found. Room filled with gasoline. So this commander, the alarm goes off. Then another. Then another. By the third one he disabled, he had to call Androvpov and explain why. His logic was good. Why would the USA launch 5 of thousands of missiles? Imagine everyone doubting you there and if you are wrong, your country is ash. Saved the world. Got fired. The President is a fink. |
August 17th, 2017 at 4:30:47 PM permalink | |
Fleastiff Member since: Oct 27, 2012 Threads: 62 Posts: 7831 | When the Mayor of Nagasaki paid an official visit to Las Vegas he stayed at Caesar's Forum and he accompanied his luggage in the elevator. Upon seeing the name of the luggage-schlepping Bellman and staring intently into his face, the Mayor bowed deeply and invited the Bellman to linger in his room. The personal and official timeschedules were thrown out of whack as the Mayor spent three hours going over the photos the Bellman had brought with him. The Mayor had recognized that the bellman was the son of the first American Army Photographer to make it into Nagasaki. |
August 17th, 2017 at 4:37:13 PM permalink | |
Fleastiff Member since: Oct 27, 2012 Threads: 62 Posts: 7831 | Military men are supposed to obey orders, not exercise initiative. No General wants his subordinates being interviewed as a hero. |
August 17th, 2017 at 4:58:00 PM permalink | |
AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18202 |
Not quite so black and white. They are also taught to assess the situation and act as warrants, really so for officers. Curiously, the Russian army, like most non-western ones, does not teach that. Why their pilots are easy pickings, even why India call centers are so god awful. They get a checklist, that is that. This guy acted western, knew something was wrong (clouds set off the alarm) and acted. Reverse of the pre-credit segment of "War Games," though that guy who disobeyed orders got a WH job 20 years later. The President is a fink. |