Boeing CURRENT MARKET OUTLOOK 2017-2036

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August 28th, 2017 at 7:20:14 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Over the next 20 years Boeing prediction of sales (PER MONTH) are 342 aircraft for $50.4 billion.
Note, this is their prediction for the total market, not Boeing's percentage.

Millions per aircraft - Type - Sales - Millions total
$46 regional 19.8 $917
$108 single aisle 246.1 $26,500
$265 small widebody 42.1 $11,167
$367 medium/large widebody 26.3 $ 9,667
$283 Freighters 7.7 $ 2,167
341.9 $50,417


Note that single aisle aircraft will continue to be over half the sales (but probably a much smaller percentage of profits).

Boeing plans to Increase 737 Production Rate to 52 per Month in 2018. I note that the prediction for the single aisle market is incredibly robust. They seem to think the market share can support 7 or 8 manufacturers.

With sales of the B747-8i and A380 on the wane, Boeing has combined the medium and large widebody predictions.

One must also note that this is an average month over the next 20 years. Presumably there is some kind of slope as we don't expect the sales of this many aircraft in 2018. Also note that as an industry outlook forecast it is by nature going to be optimistic.
August 28th, 2017 at 7:46:50 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 121
Posts: 15779
Boeing can turn out almost 2 of those hugely
complicated planes a day? I thought they
only did that in WWII when Ford at the River Rouge
plant was churning out a plane an hour.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
August 28th, 2017 at 9:56:40 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Quote: Evenbob
Boeing can turn out almost 2 of those hugely complicated planes a day?


Well they are planning to increase production of the B737 to 52/month next year. Last year it was closer to 41/month. I think the production cycle is 6 days.

Boeing Deliveries in 2016
490 :737
9 :747
13 :767
99 :777
137 :787
748 :Total

Airbus Deliveries in 2016
545 A320 Family
66 A330s
49 A350-900s
28 A380s
688 Total

Boeing has a clear lead in widebodies, but there is some concern in the future in single aisle jets with the A320 orders so far ahead of the B737.
August 29th, 2017 at 7:20:55 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Quote: Pacomartin
Boeing plans to Increase 737 Production Rate to 52 per Month in 2018. I note that the prediction for the single aisle market is incredibly robust. They seem to think the market share can support 7 or 8 manufacturers.


Good thing then that Bombardier and COMAC are getting into the single-aisle business...

Boeing should look into setting up additional assembly line factories. One should be in Asia, to counter COMAC, and one in Latin America to preempt Embraer's inevitable foray into mainline narrow body planes.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
August 29th, 2017 at 10:40:23 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Quote: Nareed
Good thing then that Bombardier and COMAC are getting into the single-aisle business...


Personally, I think that Boeing is being overly optimistic with those predictions. From 2015 to 2016 according to Boeing the world fleet of single aisle jets increased by 160 (from 14,870 to 15,030). Now obviously many jets were also retired as Boeing delivered 490 single aisle jets and Airbus delivered 545. Together the duopoly delivered 86 single aisle jets per month. But to go from those levels to over an 20 year average of 246 per month is a hefty increase in demand.

That is the problem with market forecasts produced by corporations. They want to assure their investors that the demand is so high, that they can withstand new competition and still deliver a huge number of jets. The worse snow job was Airbus writing that they only needed to sell 50 A380s to break even.
August 29th, 2017 at 11:34:45 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Quote: Pacomartin
Together the duopoly delivered 86 single aisle jets per month. But to go from those levels to over an 20 year average of 246 per month is a hefty increase in demand.


That's the kind of snow-job that falls flat on its face absent some compelling market bubble, hysteria, or really cool models and graphics.

Quote:
The worse snow job was Airbus writing that they only needed to sell 50 A380s to break even.


I bet they showed investors some really cool models of the plane, plus awesome graphics of on-board bars/lounges and amazing seats.

At that, Singapore's first class suites and emirates showers might have exceeded expectations.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
August 29th, 2017 at 4:58:32 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Quote: Nareed
I bet they showed investors some really cool models of the plane, plus awesome graphics of on-board bars/lounges and amazing seats.


I think that the designers of the A380 thought that it would be used for some pedestrian uses as well as a luxury liner.
The India Delhi to Mumbai run is only 1150 km, but it carries 20,000 passengers a day on average. That is a dozen roundtrip runs of 850 passengers apiece (possible on a one class A380).
August 30th, 2017 at 6:53:17 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Quote: Pacomartin
That is a dozen roundtrip runs of 850 passengers apiece (possible on a one class A380).


And fewer frequencies. We've discussed this before.

What Airbus needs is for major airports to reduce available slots and/or operating times. something that would force the airlines to cram more passengers per flight.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
August 30th, 2017 at 8:30:47 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Quote: Nareed
And fewer frequencies. We've discussed this before.


With 20K passengers per day, you can still have hourly frequency even with the biggest airframes.

Quote: Nareed
What Airbus needs is for major airports to reduce available slots and/or operating times. something that would force the airlines to cram more passengers per flight.


There are basically four airports in the USA that are trying to turn away flights. LaGuardia in NYC, Reagan National in DC, Midway in Chicago, John Wayne in Orange County. They are all very old inner city airports with limited runways that can only expand so much. Every other airport is afraid of losing routes or frequency, and they are soliciting for more nonstops.

But at some point major airports like LAX, EWR, ORD, SAN, LAS and JFK will have to optimize runway time. They will have to discourage smaller jets and/or private aircraft. The easiest way is to charge a fee for landing and takeoffs that is independent of plane size. Right now they charge by weight. Airlines will have to factor in extra expense for smaller planes.

Which goes back to the comment that the A380 may have been a good idea, if they had started work a decade later.
August 30th, 2017 at 9:04:35 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12536
Quote: Pacomartin
Which goes back to the comment that the A380 may have been a good idea, if they had started work a decade later.


if we follow this progression, demand for a Very Large Airplane (VLA) will surge a few years after Airbus closes their A380 assembly lines and retools them for something else (and ditto Boeing for the 747-8). Kind of where Middle-of-the Market (MoM) is now. Airlines will have to make do densifying the 777 and A350-1000, perhaps to 11 abreast in coach.

To compensate, they'll debut business class in a 1-1-1 configuration, with direct aisle access and full privacy for all. Emirates will do Etihad one better and get a 1 configuration in first class (as opposed to the oppressive 1-1), with a private restroom (but not a shower) for each passenger. First class passengers in these airlines will need to find something new to complain about ("Oh, the bother!")
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
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