Boeing CURRENT MARKET OUTLOOK 2017-2036

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September 3rd, 2017 at 11:43:24 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Singapore Airlines first 5 deliveries A380 (10 year lease)
15. Oct. 2007
11. Jan. 2008
11. Mar. 2008
26. Apr. 2008
28. Jun. 2008

As we know SA is giving up the first of their A380s after the initial lease. As we know SA is simply giving up their first 5 as they are obligated to buy 5 more A380s.

Now the question is what will Emirates do when their A380s (12 year lease) expires.
28. Jul. 2008
24. Oct. 2008
15. Nov. 2008
30. Dec. 2008

They have always stated that they would not renew leases. However, Emirates has only 47 more A380s to deliver. So when the first A380 lease expires in 3 years the backlog should be down below 15 planes. At that time Emirates begins to receive the first of 115 Boeing 777-9 on order.

Emirates is also debating about an order for either the Airbus A350 or the Boeing 787.

Faced with the termination of production, perhaps Emirates will reconsider and negotiate additional years to the 380 lease. It doesn't look that way right now.

Quote: Nareed
if we follow this progression, demand for a Very Large Airplane (VLA) will surge a few years after Airbus closes their A380 assembly lines and retools them for something else ...


When some major airports began shutting down to new traffic (LAX, LHR, JFK) it will become a big issue.
September 3rd, 2017 at 4:34:24 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12536
Quote: Pacomartin
Now the question is what will Emirates do when their A380s (12 year lease) expires.


Oh! I can answer that one: they don't know yet. :)

Quote:
Faced with the termination of production, perhaps Emirates will reconsider and negotiate additional years to the 380 lease. It doesn't look that way right now.


I think it's more likely they'll pressure Airbus for an A380neo, which Airbus would be insane to pursue.

Quote:
When some major airports began shutting down to new traffic (LAX, LHR, JFK) it will become a big issue.


Maybe, but maybe airlines will prefer to use alternative airports, too.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
September 3rd, 2017 at 8:30:21 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 859
Posts: 10231
Quote: Nareed
I think it's more likely they'll pressure Airbus for an A380neo, which Airbus would be insane to pursue.


The A320neo project was launched in December 2010, Airbus forecast a 4,000 aircraft market over the following 15 years and development costs were predicted to be "slightly more than 1 billion.

Emirates had just placed an order in June 2010 for 32 A380s. At this point the order tally was up to 90, and the 10th plane to Emirates had just been delivered. Emirates began to discuss a new engine option for the A380 immediately.

In December 2013 Emirates unexpectedly placed and order for 50 additional A380s. The rumor had been for only 30 more, but Emirates was clearly trying to save the program. At this point they made increasingly larger promises for a contract if Airbus would start the A380neo program. Eventually Emirates got as high as an offer to contract for 200 planes.

Emirates ambivalence about the A350 program is, I think, partly a reflection about their anger about the A380 program. This fall if they select Dreamliners over A350 for their next purchase will probably be a confirmation over their frustration.

The official list of undelivered A380s is largely a joke. Singapore Airlines is contractually obligated to take 5 more A380s, so they are simply retiring the original 5 deliveries once they reach 10 years old. Outside of Emirates and Singapore Airlines, the only planes likely to be delivered are 1 more to Qatar Airways. The 3 planes ordered by ANA will probably be delivered on May, June and September 2019.

46 : EMIRATES UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
20 : AMEDEO IRELAND leasing company
10 : UNDISCLOSED Hong Kong airline which Chinese government killed
8 : QANTAS AIRWAYS AUSTRALIA Their last delivery was on 15. Dec. 2011, they nearly went bankrupt
6 : VIRGIN ATLANTIC UNITED KINGDOM
5 : SINGAPORE AIRLINES SINGAPORE
3 : All Nippon Airlines JAPAN May, June and September 2019.
3 : AIR ACCORD BERMUDA basically a Russian airline that went bankrupt
2 : QATAR AIRWAYS QATAR

It looks like they will deliver the last plane in 2021 or 2022 and then shut down the production line.

ANA intends to use them for Tokyo to Honolulu, probably with the most seats ever put in an A380.


ANA did not want any A380s, but Skymark, which was Japan's third largest carrier, entered bankruptcy following mismanagement of its A330 expansion and the looming debt of pending A380 deliveries, a contract that Airbus cancelled (july 2014) when it determined (at a critical point in the production process) that Skymark would be unable to pay for them. Skymark was placed under rehabilitation led by Japanese investment firm Integral. A number of airlines put forward proposals to take a stake in Skymark and to be a partner in the rehabilitation. Airbus backed ANA instead of Delta to take over Skymark, and in exchange ANA agreed to purchase three A380s. The attraction was not just Skymark's licence, but also its 36 daily slot pairs (third largest after ANA and JAL) at the restricted airport Tokyo Haneda, and the potential for a partnership that would greatly boost the other carrier's presence in Japan.

Airbus is hoping that ANAs late example of the plane as a way to move large numbers of people will inspire more last minute sales.
September 4th, 2017 at 12:44:29 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12536
Quote: Pacomartin
Emirates ambivalence about the A350 program is, I think, partly a reflection about their anger about the A380 program. This fall if they select Dreamliners over A350 for their next purchase will probably be a confirmation over their frustration.


Emirates is heavily invested in the A380. At their hub, they have a premium terminal in the upper floor, with jet bridges that connect to the upper deck. But I wonder if they're not over-invested in it. You know they even fly it on short flights?

If the idea was to add options for congested airports, I wonder if airbus should have developed the A380 for short haul flights. after all, it's very wasteful to fly an A380 on a 2-hour flight (stress on the fuselage is the same for a 12 hour flight).

I stand by my prediction. Once Very Large aircraft go out of production, the need for them will be plain.

To be honest, I thought a double-deck plane would never be built. I bet airbus wishes I'd been right ;)
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September 4th, 2017 at 7:39:57 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 859
Posts: 10231
Quote: Nareed
To be honest, I thought a double-deck plane would never be built. I bet airbus wishes I'd been right ;)


The whole twin versus quad engine debate was still in it's infancy in the 1980s. An Airbus executive said "North American operators were clearly in favour of a twin[jet], while Asians wanted a quad[jet]. In Europe, opinion was split between the two. The majority of potential customers were in favour of a quad despite the fact, in certain conditions, it is more costly to operate than a twin. "

The first flight of the A340 occurred on 21 October 1991, which was Airbus's first 4 engine jet. The Boeing 747 had just had it's peak year for deliveries (70 aircraft).

In January 1993, Boeing and several companies in the Airbus consortium started a joint feasibility study of a Very Large Commercial Transport (VLCT), aiming to form a partnership to share the limited market. This joint study was abandoned two years later, Boeing's interest having declined because analysts thought that such a product was unlikely to cover the projected $15 billion development cost. In June 1994, Airbus announced its plan to develop its own very large airliner, designated as A3XX. In 2015, Airbus said development costs were $16.95 Billion. In 2016, The A380 development costs were estimated at $25 billion for 15 years,

Basically, the development time was so long that the double decker full size 4 engine plane looked like the future when it was in concept stages (even without North American operators), But the slowdown because of 9-11 followed by the economic crash meant that by the first delivery in 2007 the concept was already in serious jeopardy.

The biggest mistake was in misreading the Chinese and Japanese markets where they expected to sell hundreds of A380s. Instead the Chinese bought 5, and Japanese bought 3 (and that was basically a bribe).

Qantas ordered 20, but will never take delivery of the last 8.
Singapore Airlines ordered 24 but will only take deliver of the last 5 after they have terminated the lease on the first 5.

Emirates has 95 A380s in its fleet, and it is taking five more between now and October. The airline has a total of 142 on firm order, but it does not plan to take any in 2019 and 2020.

By my count, Airbus has only 10 rock solid orders outside of Emirates. That could mean that they will shut down production line in 2019 and leave Emirates short it's final 30 or so aircraft.
5 : SINGAPORE AIRLINES
3 : All Nippon Airlines
2 : QATAR AIRWAYS


These are the other orders on the books outside of Emirates, but I think of them as "fictional"
20 : AMEDEO
10 : UNDISCLOSED
8 : QANTAS AIRWAYS
6 : VIRGIN ATLANTIC
3 : AIR ACCORD
September 5th, 2017 at 11:56:42 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12536
That was a very succinct and interesting history of the A380.


Quote: Pacomartin
Basically, the development time was so long that the double decker full size 4 engine plane looked like the future when it was in concept stages (even without North American operators),


"Everything takes longer and costs more."

Quote:
But the slowdown because of 9-11 followed by the economic crash meant that by the first delivery in 2007 the concept was already in serious jeopardy.


I grant you 9/11 and the severity of the great recession were not predictable, even in a worse-case scenario type of prediction.

Quote:
The biggest mistake was in misreading the Chinese and Japanese markets where they expected to sell hundreds of A380s. Instead the Chinese bought 5, and Japanese bought 3 (and that was basically a bribe).


That's where airbus stops getting a pass, I think.

Now, consider the following:

The Comet
Concorde
A380

These would be three European passenger jets which were:

Revolutionary
Impressive
Unsuccessful

Ok. The Comet wold well initially, but then the design ran into metal fatigue (also unpredictable at the time), and sales pretty much ended.

I can't think of a similar string of failures by a North American manufacturer. There's the MD-11, to be sure, but as a follow-on to the DC-10 it was nowhere near as expensive to develop. Ditto the 747-8. And the jury's out with the CS100 and CS300.

But then I also don't know the pre-80s markets well at all. there have been several spectacular failures with combat aircraft.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
April 13th, 2018 at 6:49:11 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 859
Posts: 10231
Quote: Pacomartin
Well they are planning to increase production of the B737 to 52/month next year. Last year it was closer to 41/month. I think the production cycle is 6 days.

Boeing Deliveries in 2016
490 :737
9 :747
13 :767
99 :777
137 :787
748 :Total


Boeing reached a new high on the 737 program located in Renton, Wash. as it raised production to 47 airplanes a month during the year.

Boeing Deliveries in 2017
529:737 ( including 74 of the MAX variety)
14:747
10:767
74:777
136:787
763: total

Boeing 787 deliveries over the last seven years:
3 46 65 114 135 137 136

The current backlog is 5864 planes.
To fill the current backlog of unfilled Dreamliner orders will take about five years.

The backlog of B737 will take about 7 years at this rate, but less at increased production.

The B777X will only take about 4 years of production when the line begins in a year or two. Obviously they are hoping for more orders.

Boeing needs to come out with the next model inside a year or two at the most.
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