Where will Bitcoin be on 9/4/2018?

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9 members have voted

December 15th, 2017 at 10:22:43 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
Quote: Pacomartin
When Bitcoin falls 50% it will be mass panic, even though BTC went up 40% in 40 hours.


The TwinkieVolks Bros laugh when people
talk about BC busting. Don't you trust them?
Just because they let Zuckerburg steal FB
from them doesn't mean they're total idiots.

They explain that the value of something, gold,
for instance, has value because we all agree
it does. If we all agree BC has value, they said,
then it can be worth more than gold.

I take it back, they may be idiots after all.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
December 15th, 2017 at 11:02:19 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Evenbob
They explain that the value of something, gold, for instance, has value because we all agree it does. If we all agree BC has value, they said, then it can be worth more than gold.
There is no disputing that basic statement of human nature, but it is still essentially meaningless because people can change their mind very quickly. Of course there is a lot of history of people thinking gold was valuable.

It wasn't that long ago in history that people didn't believe that paper money had value.

Quote: A Short History of Paper Money and Banking in the United States was written in 1833, and it was a major blast against the trend towards inflation and paper money.
Gouge deprecated any deviation from a metallic currency. He contended in the treatise that the present mixed system of currency, of specie and bank notes redeemable on demand in specie, was the primary source of economic evils, especially inflation and subsequent severe depression.

Anything that excites the spirit of speculation encourages a tendency to increase the amount of bank issues.

With the increase of paper money, prices rise, though in uneven fashion, until eventually the prices of some goods substantially exceed their prices abroad.

The resulting adverse balance of trade brings a halt in the rise of prices. Since the foreign sellers will not accept the paper money, importers demand specie from banks.

The bankers in turn start calling in loans and refuse extensions and their debtors in turn press their own debtors in what seems an endless chain. The contraction causes a rapid, sharp fall of prices and goods cannot be sold except at a heavy loss. Multitudes become bankrupt but as prices decline, imports fall and gold eventually returns.

The confidence of the banks is revived and they begin to issue paper money again, and the circle of expansion and contraction is on. The effect of the restriction of the money supply under a banknote currency was much worse than under a specie standard because of the multiple contraction that results in the" pressure" on the community.
December 15th, 2017 at 11:43:37 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
Quote: Pacomartin
There is no disputing that basic statement of human nature, but it is still essentially meaningless because people can change their mind very quickly.


Twinkledicks are hucksters, new money is
something that doesn't catch on easily.
They want to cash in before it tanks. Wait
and see.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
December 16th, 2017 at 12:00:34 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Evenbob
... new money is something that doesn't catch on easily. They want to cash in before it tanks.


Isn't that the goal of every investor?

I wonder if China has developed ways around the electrical usage plaguing Bitcoin, not to mention the long delays?

It is not certain if Sweden will beat China. Some people feel that this tiny country of 10 million people is doing fine with commercial bank money and phone apps along with less than $600 per capita in banknotes and coins. They may not have much of an underground economy as prositution and most drug use is legal, but presumably it is primarily conducted with EURO banknotes.


Quote: Bloomberg News: China Is Developing its Own Digital Currency February 23, 2017
After assembling a research team in 2014, the People’s Bank of China has done trial runs of its prototype cryptocurrency. That’s taking it a step closer to becoming one of the first major central banks to issue digital money that can be used for anything from buying noodles to purchasing a car.

For users transacting over their smartphones or laptops, a PBOC-backed cryptocurrency probably wouldn’t seem much different to existing payment methods such as Alipay or WeChat. But for sellers, they would get digital payments directly from the buyer, lowering transaction costs as the middleman is cut out of the process.

At the same time as it builds up its own capabilities, the PBOC is increasing scrutiny of bitcoin and other private digital tenders. It doesn’t want a bitcoin bubble to blow up. And since currencies have historically been issued by the state, not private players, it doesn’t want to cede the cryptocurrency space to companies it has no control over.

Chinese people have embraced online payments for just about everything. To buy a can of Coke, thirsty commuters scan QR codes on their smartphones rather than feed coins into a vending machine. At Lunar New Year gatherings, money is exchanged via a few presses on a smartphone instead of crisp notes handed over in red envelopes.

All of that poses a challenge to the PBOC’s status as the central bank of both the digital and physical realms. So if you can’t beat them, join them.

"Getting to know more precisely how much banks lend, where the money goes and the pace of credit creation is key to curbing money laundering and making monetary policy more effective," said Duan Xinxing, vice president of Beijing-based OKCoin Co., one of the country’s biggest bitcoin exchanges. Issuing digital currency will make it easier for the PBOC to monitor risk in the financial system and track transactions economy-wide, he said.

OKCoin is among cryptocurrency exchanges that has recently taken steps to halt bitcoin withdrawals amid efforts to clamp down on capital outflows.

In January 2016, the PBOC said it will have its own cryptocurrency "soon," but there has still been no formal start date announced. In the meantime, there’s been strong advocacy from senior officials, including Fan Yifei, one of the PBOC’s deputy governors.

PBOC makes the case for taking the lead on digital currencies

It’s not just China that’s heading away from cash. Late last year, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi scrapped 86 percent of notes in tender in a bid to target corruption and push the use of digital payments. Bank of Canada, Deutsche Bundesbank and the Monetary Authority of Singapore are examining digital currencies.

Printing money and combating counterfeiters is expensive for a country of 1.4 billion people, especially the costs of managing circulation and transactions. Adding digital currency to cash in circulation can improve the speed, convenience and transparency of transactions.

"Cutting costs is an obvious benefit, but the impact of shifting to blockchain-based digital money from the current payment structure goes beyond that," said Larry Cao, director of content at the CFA Institute in Hong Kong. "There’s a potential you can pay anybody in the system, any bank, and any merchant directly. Blockchain will change the whole infrastructure. This is revolutionary."

Blockchain is basically a digital ledger that contains the payment history of each circulation of the unit. If the PBOC’s version is widely adopted, that would challenge existing intermediaries such as banks and payment services like Alibaba affiliate Alipay and Tencent’s WeChat -- two leading online payment networks.

"I won’t say banks and payment companies will disappear, but their role would definitely change," said William Gee, a risk assurance practice partner at PwC China in Beijing. "They need to find their new role in the new payment ecosystem, and we will probably see some innovative business model in this sector."

Real-time data

For the PBOC, using blockchain, the technology that underpins the digital currency bitcoin, will allow it to trace transactions and collect "real-time, complete and authentic" data to compile precise monetary indicators such as money supply growth, OKCoin’s Duan said.

"The transparency of economic activities in every corner in the country will significantly improve," Duan said. "The central bank will have unprecedented knowledge of how the economy runs."

So instead of relying on monthly surveys of businesses, or collations of spending from the statistics authority, the PBOC and therefore the government would have real-time readings on the pulse of consumers. Policies could then be fine tuned on a day-to-day, even hour-to-hour basis, giving an unprecedented level of precision to monetary management.

A PBOC research paper last year outlined how digital money could work:

The PBOC creates cryptocurrency and transfers it to commercial banks when more liquidity is needed

Consumers would top up digital currency from modified automated teller machines or from bank tellers and store it in a crypto wallet on their mobile phone or other device

For purchases, consumers wire from their person wallet to the merchant’s account

The merchant deposits the cryptocurrency into their commercial bank account

The cryptocurrency would be part of the overall money supply, replacing part of the outstanding paper tender, a separate paper published in the central bank’s magazine said in September.

"Talking about the impact of digital money now is like trying to predict how the Internet would transform lives in the 1980s," OKCoin’s Duan said. "We know it’s going to be huge. It has the potential to change the entire economic infrastructure. We’re just not sure about when and how."

— With assistance by Yinan Zhao, and Lulu Yilun Chen
December 16th, 2017 at 12:21:59 PM permalink
OnceDear
Member since: Nov 21, 2017
Threads: 11
Posts: 1504
Quote: rxwine
Do you feel you have more insight into your investment than if you were trying to guess when a slot machine will hit? Better, same, or worse?

Generally with regular stocks you can read something about the company, and while it's hardly a sure thing it's better than blind luck.

Not for one second!
I KNOW that at some future date, BC will crash. I see that as inevitable. Those BC billionaires are insane to not cash out a good chunk of their wealth. With the utility of money, what is the point in them holding indefinitely. They are fantastically rich now, by most standards. To never sell in the face of near certain oblivion is to risk being the biggest luzers of all time, and for what.

I don't see my position as similar to trying to assess when a slot will hit. More like standing and using a defective ATM which is dishing out £5 bills at short interval, but with the display showing a message that the police have been called and I'll be dragged away and all my ill gotten gains confiscated soon, at any time.
I'm enjoying a roller coaster ride, which is going upwards at the moment. All roller coasters end up at a low point. I have no problem with that.
Don't know if / when / to what extent I'll liquidate profits.

I don't fear the fact that the price is rising almost vertically on its exponential path. The chart always looked the same when re-scaled.

If I were to stick a pin in the map, I'd say we will not see any serious down trend til $25k

Total hunch though, based on gut assessment of media coverage.
December 16th, 2017 at 2:30:40 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: OnceDear
If I were to stick a pin in the map, I'd say we will not see any serious down trend til $25k


Here is a chart of number of daily transactions over the last two years. It varies from 200K to a peak of nearly 600K but is currently 355,652 in the last day.
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=2years
Cost per Transaction (USD) $139.28 up from about $7 at beginning of the year.

When the panic comes these stats will run off the board as millions of transactions are happening.

I spent .4038 BTC ~$258.71 for a computer on Jun 30, 2014. It would be worth about $8000 today. DUMB DUMB



Banknotes and coin in circulation (12/31/2016)
Country Billions of Dollars
United States $1,509
Euro area $1,218
Japan $916
BITCOIN $326 (Market Cap as of December 15, 2017)
India $196
Russia $145

China ~ $1,000 but they don't report
December 16th, 2017 at 2:32:43 PM permalink
OnceDear
Member since: Nov 21, 2017
Threads: 11
Posts: 1504
Quote: Pacomartin
Here is a chart of number of daily transactions over the last two years. It varies from 200K to a peak of nearly 600K but is currently 355,652 in the last day.
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=2years
Cost per Transaction (USD) $139.28 up from about $7 at beginning of the year.

When the panic comes these stats will run off the board as millions of transactions are happening.

I spent .4038 BTC ~$258.71 for a computer on Jun 30, 2014. It would be worth about $8000 today. DUMB DUMB
20:20 hindsight. a wonderful but wicked gift.
December 16th, 2017 at 2:39:59 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: OnceDear
20:20 hindsight. a wonderful but wicked gift.


It was around $100 in August 2013, over $1000 in early 2014 and dropped to $400. I sold it at $600 and bought one of those flat computers which I thought was cool.

December 16th, 2017 at 2:50:06 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
Quote: Pacomartin
I spent .4038 BTC ~$258.71 for a computer on Jun 30, 2014. It would be worth about $8000 today. DUMB DUMB


No, it wasn't dumb. Any currency that
nobody spends, like BC, will always
increase in value. So what. As soon as
they start spending it, down it will go.
This can't last forever, greed will get
them in the end. They'll hang on and
lose their shirts.

In the collectibles biz, if there's 75 of
something and all 75 are in collections,
the value for one is huge. If 30 of them
come on the market at one time, the
value goes off a cliff. That's all BC is,
a collectible.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
December 17th, 2017 at 10:02:45 PM permalink
Aussie
Member since: May 10, 2016
Threads: 2
Posts: 458
Quote: OnceDear
20:20 hindsight. a wonderful but wicked gift.




This is true.

When it last dipped 20% a couple of weeks ago my wife urged me to buy. I said I wanted to wait to see if it dipped further. We ended up buying the next morning when it had recovered half of the losses. When she admonished me for not listening to her I reminded her that if she had have listened to me when I first suggested buying in September we would have paid for the entire cost of next year’s 4 week European holiday with change left over. She doesn’t mention it any more.