Where will Bitcoin be on 9/4/2018?

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9 members have voted

November 12th, 2017 at 12:58:29 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 807
Posts: 9715
Quote: Wizard
Long term, I think some country or company with a name will back a Crypto Currency and Bitcoin will become a memory.


The first reports on the e-Krona are being issued by Sweden's central bank
http://www.riksbank.se/en/Financial-stability/Payments/Does-Sweden-need-the-e-krona/Reports/

Along with a project plan
http://www.riksbank.se/Documents/Avdelningar/AFS/2017/Projektplan%20e-kronan_170314_eng.pdf

The massive power consumption behind BTC transactions is because the project has absolutely no central authority. In addition because the number of BTC is limited, the power required to "solve the problems" and earn new BTC grows exponentially.

There are studies on limited blockchain that will not require as much power. The Swedish e-krona ill trade at the same rate as the regular krona.

There is no absolute limit on how many banknotes a country can issue. In Japan banknotes are 20% of GDP, and roughly 1% in Sweden.

Banknotes and Coin as percent of GDP (end of 2016)
19.96% Japan
16.86% Hong Kong SAR
12.32% Switzerland
10.73% Euro area
10.36% Singapore
10.23% Russia
8.79% India
8.34% Saudi Arabia
8.10% United States -------------------------
7.27% Mexico
5.94% Korea
4.83% Turkey
4.71% Australia
4.17% Canada
3.91% United Kingdom
3.70% Brazil
2.27% South Africa

Presumably there will be no predetermined market cap on electronic currency backed by central bank.

The discussion of citizens of other nations using electronic currency is still open. Certainly many people outside of USA, Canada, EU, and Switzerland make use of their banknotes. Probably almost nobody outside of Sweden uses their banknotes unless a handful of Germans and other Nordics keep them as a currency hedge. One of there reasons there are so few banknotes in circulation is that Sweden does not want foreign agents fiddling with their currency value for personal gain.
November 12th, 2017 at 1:14:26 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 807
Posts: 9715
Qian Xiaochao defines the three possible states in which a cryptocurrency system can exist:

1) In a centralised state, one single entity (i.e. a bank) controls the system;
2) in a decentralised state, the system relies on a single safety contingency, the private key;
3) whereas a non-centralised system is neither centralised nor decentralised.

Xiaochao contends that Bitcoin is defined by the third state, not – as its supporters would like to believe – by the second. And if Bitcoin really is ‘non-centralised’ rather than ‘decentralised’, the enormous computing and energy resources which Bitcoin mining devours are being expended in vain, since the system can neither scale nor preserve itself reliably enough.
November 12th, 2017 at 3:28:52 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 198
Posts: 4363
I've read that Bitcoin doesn't have to be such a huge power hog. I don't want to explain the details, because I'm not sure I understand them, but its my (possible incorrect) understanding that because there are so many computers doing nothing but Bitcoin mining the math problems they try to solve get more difficult.

In other news, the price continues to drop like a rock today. Currently around $5620. Consider it was at or near $7500 on Nov 8, five days ago.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
November 12th, 2017 at 4:21:39 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 116
Posts: 13906
Quote: Wizard
That is another reason I don't think Bitcoin will last. .


Go back to where this discussion
started and I'm on record saying
it's a bust is a foregone conclusion,
just a matter of when.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
November 12th, 2017 at 4:52:32 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 106
Posts: 7862
Quote: Wizard
I've read that Bitcoin doesn't have to be such a huge power hog. I don't want to explain the details, because I'm not sure I understand them, but its my (possible incorrect) understanding that because there are so many computers doing nothing but Bitcoin mining the math problems they try to solve get more difficult.

In other news, the price continues to drop like a rock today. Currently around $5620. Consider it was at or near $7500 on Nov 8, five days ago.


I have heard the same. I have heard China and N Korea are some of the biggest miners, we can figure they care little about how much the power costs. I still see a future here. Official trading will soon happen on the CBOE. I'd wager less than half the population even knows Bitcoin exists yet.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
November 12th, 2017 at 6:37:44 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 807
Posts: 9715
Quote: Wizard
I've read that Bitcoin doesn't have to be such a huge power hog. I don't want to explain the details, because I'm not sure I understand them, but its my (possible incorrect) understanding that because there are so many computers doing nothing but Bitcoin mining the math problems they try to solve get more difficult.


I believe your analysis is correct. It will always take ten minutes for everyone on the network to solve the puzzle. It does that by varying the difficulty of the puzzle depending on how many people are trying to solve it. What this means is that the time taken to produce a bitcoin doesn’t vary – only the computing power used to produce it does. As more people join the bitcoin network and try to mine bitcoins, they use more computing power, and therefore more electricity, for each bitcoin produced.

In May 2015, the computers on the bitcoin network were doing 342,934 Terahashes per second which equates to 343,000 kilowatts using Application-specific integrated circuit computers. You average home in the USA uses 1000 kilowatts per month in electricity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Application-specific_integrated_circuit

April 30, 2011 broke 1 Terahashes per second
Dec 25, 2013 broke 10,000 Terahashes per second
Jan 23, 2016 broke 1,000,000 Terahashes per second
Jun 04, 2017 broke 5,000,000 Terahashes per second
Oct 08, 2017 broke 10,000,000 Terahashes per second
Hash rate seems to have peaked at 13,000,000 Terahashes per second (October 26, 2017) .

On the other hand, it is logical that as the price drops, then some miners will stop their business, and electricity usage will go down. However, the rate will be very unsteady as there is a large capital investment in the computers and miners will not opt to quit easily.

The hash rate is very variable and can drop 50% from one day to the next.
November 12th, 2017 at 7:32:33 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 116
Posts: 13906
Quote: Pacomartin
The hash rate is very variable and can drop 50% from one day to the next.


It's like my visits to the bathroom
after eating bad Chinese food.
And just about as important and
meaningful to the planet as the
farts and grunts of fake money
like bit-con, er, bitcoin.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
November 13th, 2017 at 12:57:10 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 807
Posts: 9715
Hash rates have dropped considerably in the last few days. It looks like they make a judgement on when to turn off machines.

Terahashes/second
8,681,701------------ Tue, Nov 14, 17
9,495,611------------ Mon, Nov 13, 17
5,426,063 ------------ Sun, Nov 12, 17
5,426,063 ------------ Sat, Nov 11, 17
8,139,095 ------------ Fri, Nov 10, 17
11,049,822 ------------ Thu, Nov 9, 17
10,399,832 ------------ Wed, Nov 8, 17
11,266,485 ------------ Tue, Nov 7, 17
9,605,401 ------------ Mon, Nov 6, 17
10,183,169 ------------ Sun, Nov 5, 17
9,388,737 ------------ Sat, Nov 4, 17
8,594,306 ------------ Fri, Nov 3, 17
10,833,159 ------------ Thu, Nov 2, 17
7,872,095 ------------ Wed, Nov 1, 17
9,966,506 ------------ Tue, Oct 31, 17
10,616,495 ------------ Mon, Oct 30, 17
11,122,043 ------------ Sun, Oct 29, 17
6,138,790 ------------ Sat, Oct 28, 17
7,510,990 ------------ Fri, Oct 27, 17
12,999,790 ------------ Thu, Oct 26, 17 <====================== ALL TIME PEAK
11,006,184 ------------ Wed, Oct 25, 17
9,935,312 ------------ Tue, Oct 24, 17
10,173,284 ------------ Mon, Oct 23, 17
10,827,706 ------------ Sun, Oct 22, 17
9,102,412 ------------ Sat, Oct 21, 17
10,649,227 ------------ Fri, Oct 20, 17
10,589,734 ------------ Thu, Oct 19, 17
8,983,426 ------------ Wed, Oct 18, 17
9,756,834 ------------ Tue, Oct 17, 17
10,351,762 ------------ Mon, Oct 16, 17
11,601,113 ------------ Sun, Oct 15, 17
7,877,324 ------------ Sat, Oct 14, 17
November 15th, 2017 at 8:19:04 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 106
Posts: 7862
Zimbabwe Doesn’t Have Its Own Currency and Bitcoin Is Surging

Bitcoin selling for about twice the international rate in Zimbabwe.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
November 15th, 2017 at 10:12:13 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 807
Posts: 9715
Quote: AZDuffman
Bitcoin selling for about twice the international rate in Zimbabwe.


While most major currencies are legal tender in Zimbabwe, cash-strapped importers and retailers buy dollars -- or any currency easily converted to dollars -- at premium prices by paying the seller electronically. An “electronic” dollar buys about 8 South African rand, compared with the market exchange rate of 14.32 on Wednesday.

It sounds like USD are selling for twice the international rate in Zimbabwe as well.

Obviously every banknote in the country that is USD, CAD, EUR or JPY is stored away in a safe somewhere.

Clearly investors are so desperate that they will have nothing in a few years that they are willing to buy in at 50% of value so they have something to sell a year from now.

Obviously investors would purchase 1000 Swiss Franc banknotes worth US$1010 if they could get them and had a way to sell them.


It still raises an interesting question. Although a 500 Swedish kroner banknote (worth $59.31) would function as a store of value through difficult times, the possibility of a market in these notes is almost impossible in Zimbabwe. There are only 60 million such notes in circulation.


However, if Sweden issues an electronic currency in the next few years, could an entrepreneur sell such money in a place like Zimbabwe at huge profits for people who are desperate for any means of holding equity?

Would you rather buy BTC at 50% of value on the off chance that it zooms so that you get your money back in a few years, or would you buy e-krona at 90% of value with the almost certain value that you will never get your lost money back in a few years..