Where will Bitcoin be on 9/4/2018?

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9 members have voted

December 1st, 2017 at 1:03:26 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 850
Posts: 10146
Quote: WSJ:Nov. 29, 2017
What Is Bitcoin? Not What You Think
The $11,000 per bitcoin it passed on Wednesday compares with a value of less than half a cent when a Florida programmer paid 10,000 bitcoins for two pizzas in May 2010a percentage gain of more than 250 million.


The recent WSJ once again makes the case that Bitcoin fails to meet the basic requirements of currency.

Requirement #1) Currency buys things.
Although the purchase of two pizzas in May 2010 were the first correlation between bitcoins and the outside world of hard currency, The article makes the case that purchasing things with bitcoin is very much the rarity. The cost to make a transaction also means that people seldom want to use it to purchase things.

Requirement #2) Currency is a store of value.
It may seem strange to say BTC is not a store of value because it is plausible to believe that bitcoin has had a faster rise in value than any asset in history. But the WSJ says that it's extreme volatility does not mean it is a plausible store of value into the future.

Requirement #3) Currency is a unit of account
Bitcoin is too volatile to be used to denominate consumer credit or loan contracts.

Bitcoin appears to behave more like a speculative investment than a currency.
December 11th, 2017 at 4:36:41 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 850
Posts: 10146
Bitcoin is now capitalized at $280 billion which means it is worth more than the cash of almost every currency in the world (except the USA, EURO, JPY and presumably the Chinese Yuan which does not provide data).

It did the seemingly impossible in the last week by passing India by about 25%.

Banknotes and coin in circulation (12/31/2016)
Country Billions of Dollars
United States $1,509.34
Euro area $1,217.91
Japan $915.72
India $196.49

Who knows. Perhaps BTC can pass a trillion dollars.
December 11th, 2017 at 6:50:08 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
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Quote: Pacomartin
Bitcoin is now capitalized at $280 billion ...


Yes, that wealth is all an illusion. There is nothing to base that wealth on. Not a country, not a business, nobody. It is all gambling on something that doesn't exist.

I would suggest anyone holding Bitcoin sell at least part of your position now.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
December 11th, 2017 at 7:00:51 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 850
Posts: 10146
Quote: Wizard
Yes, that wealth is all an illusion. There is nothing to base that wealth on. Not a country, not a business, nobody. It is all gambling on something that doesn't exist.


But that has always been true since May 2010 when a programmer was able to persuade someone to give him two pizzas for 10,000BTC. Who says the illusion can't perpetuate forever?

I tried to transfer Bitcoin to PayPal, but after 11 tries photographing my driver's license it has failed every time. It won't transfer unless I can verify my identity.
December 11th, 2017 at 7:18:27 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12535
Quote: Pacomartin
Who says the illusion can't perpetuate forever?


Because no illusion involving money ever does.

In the mercantilist era, huge sums could be made from stock in trading companies with royal monopolies on goods or regions, like the East india Company. But huge losses could happen, too, when said companies were unsuccessful. a British company, I forget its name, that promised trade with Latin America, found its stock go sky high very quickly.

But this was an illusion, Latina America at the time was controlled almost entirely by Spain and Portugal, so the company could carry out almost no trade there. The collapse was spectacular.

We've seen this again and again, with biotech firms, with the dot-com bubble, real estate, etc. Yet biotech firms now thrive, some online businesses are huge, and people still buy land.

Bitcoin strikes me more as the tulips that gripped Dutch markets for some reason, comparable to the Beanie Baby craze in America. To be sure, many people grew rich off tulips and stuffed critters. No doubt many have grown rich from Bitcoin.

In contrast with biotech and dot-com companies, after Bitcoin collapses it will fade away.

we'll see.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
December 11th, 2017 at 8:18:44 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 850
Posts: 10146
Quote: Nareed
Because no illusion involving money ever does.

Quote: Wizard
I'm going to offer a free lunch with yours truly or $50 to whoever can get closes to the Bitcoin value on 9/4/2018. I will be allowed to submit my own guess, which shall be $1,000.


On 06/19/14 when BTC=$606.59 I was paid some BTC for a project. Assuming the Wizard is correct and the price on 09/04/18 is $1000 that is 4.21 years compounded at 12.61% per year. While not the stellar return of 159% per year if it remains at the current price, it is still a decent rate of return.


Something this volatile is bound to take some spectacular dives in the upcoming years, but I don't know if it will vanish in value like an illusion.
December 11th, 2017 at 8:40:54 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 110
Posts: 8633
Quote: Wizard
Yes, that wealth is all an illusion. There is nothing to base that wealth on. Not a country, not a business, nobody. It is all gambling on something that doesn't exist.

I would suggest anyone holding Bitcoin sell at least part of your position now.


Most wealth is an illusion. Bitcoin will soon have its own futures contract, which will entrench it even more.

If you want to see something really silly, check out Etherium Kittens.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
December 11th, 2017 at 10:37:54 AM permalink
beachbumbabs
Member since: Sep 3, 2013
Threads: 5
Posts: 1465
If it's still available, I'm going to place my guess on 6,200 USD on 9/4/2018.

Bitcoin surged to around 17k today, increasing value by about 25%, on the start of futures trading, think in a Chicago exchange.

NYSE expects to start futures trading in early 2018.

Worth noting it was around 18.3k last week for an all-time high, then fell back below 14k.

All in a week. Wow.

Also. Please excuse the source, (Russian Telegraph), but here's an incredible story of hackers stealing all the bitcoin from an exchange in Asia last week. The vulnerability and lack of any recompense available are frightening.

https://www.rt.com/usa/412223-nicehash-bitcoin-hacked-million/
Never doubt a small group of concerned citizens can change the world; it's the only thing ever has
December 11th, 2017 at 11:20:30 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 54
Posts: 6399
Its vulnerable to theft, forgotten passwords, formatted hard drives, fraud ...

Tulip bulbs were once compared to the wages of a most highly valued craftsman, a barrel maker. Barrels were much in demand in the Low Countries at the time, not just because they were a mercantile center but because various beverages were making men rich.

Tulip bulbs were also compared to the cost of purchasing a ship and the cost of operating it for a decade.

Bitcoins have a great upside potential. Everyone talks about bubbles, the madness of crowds, popular delusions, the East India bubble, the Cardiff Giant Affair, the notion of Good triumphing over Evil, but you ain't seen nothin' yet.
December 11th, 2017 at 11:29:48 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 110
Posts: 8633
Quote: Fleastiff
Its vulnerable to theft, forgotten passwords, formatted hard drives, fraud ...


It is also the first thing, except land, that there will be a finite supply of, and the first with near-infinite fractionability. You needed "x" to buy one bulb. $1 will buy you $1 worth of Bitcoin, forever. We are just entering the "Early Adopter" phase.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it