Narrowbodies over Atlantic

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October 16th, 2017 at 7:02:24 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Quote: Pacomartin
I did another range map. That is 3515nm and 4000nm from BWI which are the still air ranges of the B737-MAX 8 and the Long Range A321neo.


I'm wondering whether a Mexican ULCC will try transatlantic flights. It won't be easy, as they'd need to 5th freedom through the US or Canada. Also they'd likely aim for Madrid or Barcelona rather than London or Paris, where the route isn't as short.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
October 16th, 2017 at 7:50:25 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Possible
MEX to MAD is longer than any proposed narrow body model, but LCC carriers like Wow are experimenting with A330s
October 16th, 2017 at 8:36:50 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 332
Posts: 11962
Quote: Pacomartin
Possible
MEX to MAD is longer than any proposed narrow body model, but LCC carriers like Wow are experimenting with A330s


The thing is they take the fleet commonality very seriously. So I don't see either Viva, Volaris or even Interjet springing for a larger plane. Interjet surprised me a bit by getting the Sukhoi Super Jet rather than going with the A319.

So it's not possible to do MEX-MAD in an A320/1. But you can do it with a stop-over in NY, Toronto or Atlanta, I think. That's a 5th freedom flight. I don't think it would be 5th freedom if it were only a fueling stop.

Another option would be to partner with, say, Norwegian, and deliver Mexican travelers to Stewart, NY. Currently Interjet flies to JFK, and I don't see them changing that. But they could offer a shuttle to Stewart.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
October 16th, 2017 at 10:37:05 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Quote: Nareed
So it's not possible to do MEX-MAD in an A320/1. But you can do it with a stop-over in NY, Toronto or Atlanta, I think. That's a 5th freedom flight. I don't think it would be 5th freedom if it were only a fueling stop.


The 5th freedom is the ability to sell tickets for just a segment of the trip. For instance, Air New Zealand stops in LAX because they can't fly to London nonstop. But they also sell tickets on the LAX-LHR leg.Fifth freedom flights can be a good deal, not usually by economy standards, but you can get a better class of service or a premium seat for the same money.

Qantas stops in LAX and continues on to JFK in a Boeing 747-400. But even though many passengers get off in LA, they cannot sell tickets from LAX to JFK to fill the seats because both airports are in the USA. So that is not a fifth freedom flight.

As I understand it, 5th freedom flights must be negotiated. Most 5th freedom flights are with major airlines, or to relatively obscure destination.
https://www.flypointyend.com/5th-freedom-flights/

I don't think any of the aircraft owned by the Mexican LCCs have the range in a strong headwind to do one of these trips anyway. The only possibility is Interjet who is acquiring 5 Airbus A321neo which may include a Long Range version (segment range of 4000 nm in still air). Most of the time Airbus will let customers upgrade to the Long Range version.

MEX-BOS-MAD 1,979 nm + 2,963 nm via Boston
MEX-JFK-MAD 1,817 nm + 3,119 nm via JFK
MEX-YYZ-MAD 1,751 nm + 3,280 nm via Toronto
MEX-YQX-MAD 2,773 nm + 2,197 nm via Gander (for private jets like the former Presidential plane of Mexico - B757)

Aeromexico can obviously reach nonstop from MEX to LHR, CDG, MAD, and AMS easily with a Dreamliner. In the past they have flown to Barcelona and Rome. But MEX to Rome is 5526 nautical miles, still easily within the range of a Dreamliner even accounting for high and dry conditions at Mexico City. Range at typical seating for 787-8/9 is 7355 nmi/7635 nmi.

Mexico City to Beijing/Shanghai is 6722 nmi/6971 nmi so a deficit with high and dry conditions could be significant.

My understanding is that Interjet is the only LCC that flies to South America (to Bogota Colombia). The newer longer range narrowbodies may bring Peru and Chile into range, but probably not Argentina or Brazil. I doubt that Caracas has a lot of demand for LCC.
MEX BOG 1,706 nm Bogota
MEX CCS 1,933 nm Caracas
MEX LIM 2,285 nm Lima
MEX SCL 3,550 nm Santiago, Chile
MEX EZE 3,984 nm Buenos Aires
MEX GRU 4,009 nm Sao Paulo
MEX GIG 4,135 nm Rio
October 16th, 2017 at 12:41:33 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 332
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Quote: Pacomartin
The only possibility is Interjet who is acquiring 5 Airbus A321neo which may include a Long Range version (segment range of 4000 nm in still air).


Volaris has some older A321s. I would be surprised if they don't grab a few A321neos.


Quote:
Aeromexico can obviously reach nonstop from MEX to LHR, CDG, MAD, and AMS easily with a Dreamliner.


Yeah, but the point was using narrow bodies. AM could do it, as they often fly a 737 to Atlanta and are partnered with Delta. But that might be more on the way of a code share regardless of the plane type used out of Georgia.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
November 6th, 2017 at 4:05:10 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 763
Posts: 9026
Quote: Nareed
Volaris has some older A321s. I would be surprised if they don't grab a few A321neos.


Still Air Ranges
B737-800 2,935 nmi from Stewart
B737-8max 3,515 nmi from Stewart
A321-neo Long Range 4,000 nmi from Stewart

Now flying from the USA to Europe you could exceed the "still air range", but on the return trip you are fighting headwinds and you would like to stop in Gander or Goose Bay only in an emergency.



So When Norwegian Air Shuttle receives it's 30 A321-neo Long Range versions in 2019, a good portion of Western Europe and Nordic countries will be available.

I'm hoping that they will expand into ABE airport (near PA Sands Casino) as ABE will introduce bus service in the next two months to NYC Port Authority Bus Terminal (PABT). It will probably be 20-30 minutes longer than the bus from PABT to Stewart Airport.
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