Ultra Crowded Airports

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October 31st, 2017 at 8:08:50 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 332
Posts: 11982
Quote: Pacomartin
But by 2004 when Emirates made the massive order for the B777-300ER the B747-400 was approaching the end of it's production cycle. There was only 3 delivered in 2004 and 2 in 2005. The new version of the 747 was not delivered to Lufthansa until 2012.


As I said, counterfactuals are never certain.

In this case, how does airbus not develop the A380? Do they not even come up with the A3XX in the 90s? do they decide against the A3XX like McDonnell Douglass did with the MD-12? Do they perhaps realize the potential of composites sooner and come up with the A350 long before Boeing even dreams of the 787? Each PoD (Point of Departure) elicits different hypothetical reactions form Boeing, perhaps.

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The fuel burn was very high compared to the B777, so it was late in the game for Emirates to invest that heavily in archaic technology.


Very good point.

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As you know, I have felt for some time that Emirates will never take all 143 A380s they have ordered. Right now they are not planning to take any deliveries in 2019 and 2020, so I sincerely doubt that Airbus can afford to keep the production line going all that time, unless some of these phantom orders actually take place.


I think it's Emirates way of pressuring Airbus for an A380neo. Though with falling revenues, who knows.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
October 31st, 2017 at 8:47:23 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 765
Posts: 9037
Quote: Nareed
I think it's Emirates way of pressuring Airbus for an A380neo. Though with falling revenues, who knows.


I think those days are gone. They tried luring Airbus with a promise of a 150 plane order which I heard briefly went to 200 planes. I think Airbus is beyond pressuring.

It is 1000 days until Emirates begins returning their first leased A380s. I just don't think Emirates wants to replace old A380s, but they hope to begin transferring to the 777X.

If Singapore Airlines doesn't sell a single used A380, then it is possible that Emirates will simply keep the A380's they own for a longer period than 12 years. They will return the leased ones.
October 31st, 2017 at 9:23:31 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 332
Posts: 11982
Quote: Pacomartin
I think those days are gone. They tried luring Airbus with a promise of a 150 plane order which I heard briefly went to 200 planes. I think Airbus is beyond pressuring.


I'm not so sure about that. they did come up with superficial mods to the A380 for existing orders. 200 more planes just aren't enough for developing a re-engined version.

Of course, neither is the biggest A380 costumer refusing to take their current orders.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
October 31st, 2017 at 11:52:20 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 765
Posts: 9037
Quote: Nareed
200 more planes just aren't enough for developing a re-engined version.


No, of course not. But as an incentive to start the program they think that an A380 with new engines may find a new market with other airlines.

It is often said that the A380 was a good plane that just came a decade too early. But hypothetically what if the first A380 was delivered to Singapore Airlines on 15. Oct. 2017 instead of 15. Oct. 2007 would it be a success?

Although the airline industry is exploding fueled by inexpensive fuel, there is still a movement to fly longer thinner routes and bypass hubs.

=================================
Ask yourself this question. What will happen in ten years to the busiest airports of each airline that is NOT one of their hubs. Specifically Orlando and Las Vegas which are high on all three lists.

Orlando airport has lots of runways, lots of traffic, good weather and lots of international airlines servicing the airport. But it is not the hub of any USA airline.

Do you think Orlando will become a hub in ten years or will airlines decline to expand their hub system? Another possibility (very remote) is that legacy airlines will begin to mimic Southwest and abandon the hub system for more point to point flights.


American Airlines
BOS Boston, MA
MCO Orlando, FL
LAS Las Vegas, NV
SFO San Francisco, CA
TPA Tampa, FL
ATL Atlanta, GA
DEN Denver, CO
SAN San Diego, CA
FLL Fort Lauderdale, FL
RDU Raleigh/Durham, NC

Delta Airlines
MCO Orlando, FL
LAS Las Vegas, NV
FLL Fort Lauderdale, FL
TPA Tampa, FL
SFO San Francisco, CA
MIA Miami, FL
PHX Phoenix, AZ
DCA Washington, DC
DEN Denver, CO
RSW Fort Myers, FL
SAN San Diego, CA

United Airlines
MCO Orlando, FL
LAS Las Vegas, NV
BOS Boston, MA
SAN San Diego, CA
PHX Phoenix, AZ
SEA Seattle, WA
HNL Honolulu, HI
FLL Fort Lauderdale, FL
TPA Tampa, FL
LGA New York, NY
AUS Austin, TX
MIA Miami, FL

There are some Wall Street analysts that think the airlines already have too many hubs. United keeping a hub at Dulles and Newark NJ (only 213 miles) is a common example.
October 31st, 2017 at 1:48:33 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 332
Posts: 11982
Quote: Pacomartin
No, of course not. But as an incentive to start the program they think that an A380 with new engines may find a new market with other airlines.


The problem with the A380 seems to lie in keeping it filled with an acceptable number of passengers. Otherwise it becomes too expensive to operate in relation to the revenue it gets.

So more efficient engines might help, but only so much.

Quote:
It is often said that the A380 was a good plane that just came a decade too early. But hypothetically what if the first A380 was delivered to Singapore Airlines on 15. Oct. 2017 instead of 15. Oct. 2007 would it be a success?

Although the airline industry is exploding fueled by inexpensive fuel, there is still a movement to fly longer thinner routes and bypass hubs.


More counterfactuals.

IMO, the need for an A380-type Very Large Plane won't be widespread until the larger hubs begin to restrict slots to the point you need to squeeze lots of passengers into fewer flights.

And even then, many airlines might do as you suggest and deploy more A350s and 787s to bypass the hubs.


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Do you think Orlando will become a hub in ten years or will airlines decline to expand their hub system?


Not unless Disney feels like going into the airline business.

Quote:
Another possibility (very remote) is that legacy airlines will begin to mimic Southwest and abandon the hub system for more point to point flights.


I don't see that as remote. Planes like the CS 100 are perfect for such flights. You may recall I predicted it might be used as a short haul 787.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
October 31st, 2017 at 2:53:07 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 765
Posts: 9037
Quote: Nareed
I don't see that as remote. Planes like the CS 100 are perfect for such flights. You may recall I predicted it might be used as a short haul 787.


Could Delta be thinking of transforming most of it's domestic fleet two basic sizes? An army of 110 seat jets with low priced pilots, and larger narrowbodies (180+ seats) for major domestic routes. They would maximize frequency to please businessmen.

Basically Delta has not ordered a midsize single aisle jet in twenty years (between 110-180 seats).


Look at the consequences. San Diego is not particularly important to Delta although it is classified as a "large hub" by the FAA. Right now they have about 20-21 destinations daily with a variety of aircraft. No more than 5 daily trips to busiest hubs of Salt Lake City UT and Atlanta GA. Nearly daily trips to LAX are supplemented with regional airlines where they Delta simply purchases seats in a shared agreement with United, Alaska, and American airlines.

Hypothetically if Delta were to replace all the aircraft with CS100s they would increase to about 32 daily round trip flights to keep the same number of seats. Atlanta would be now 9 daily flights, and SLC would be about 7 daily flights.

Average seats-current Trips/month-current Trips/month w/ CS100 San Diego to Delta hub Miles
110 43 43 Seattle, WA 1,050
132 27 32 Los Angeles, CA 109
156 154 218 Salt Lake City, UT 626
160 111 161 Minneapolis, MN 1,532
165 85 128 New York, NY 2,446
187 60 102 Detroit, MI 1,956
199 151 273 Atlanta, GA 1,892
167 632 958 average/total


The increase on operations on the runway by 12 new daily flights would be 12*2*365=8760 operations per year (takeoffs and landings). By itself that won't congest the runway, unless a similar strategy is followed by the other airlines.

Delta's current fleet consists of:
91 Boeing 717-200 16.2 Years (110 seats)
10 Boeing 737-700 8.8 Years (124 seats)
But they ordered 75 CS100s with options for 200 .

132 - 160 seats all aging
57 Airbus A319-100 15.6 years
65 Airbus A320-200 22.3 years
77 Boeing 737-800 16.2 Years
111 McDonnell Douglas MD-88 27.4 Years
65 McDonnell Douglas MD-90 20.8 Years
372 jets (midsize narrowbodies with average of 150 seats)

85 Boeing 737-900ER 2.3 Years(180 seats) another 45 on order
27 Airbus A321-200 new (192 seats) another 95 on order
November 1st, 2017 at 7:52:50 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 332
Posts: 11982
Quote: Pacomartin
Could Delta be thinking of transforming most of it's domestic fleet two basic sizes? An army of 110 seat jets with low priced pilots, and larger narrowbodies (180+ seats) for major domestic routes. They would maximize frequency to please businessmen.


I think they'd be wise to engage in some point-to-point flying, and the C Series is perfect for that.

Those of us who live in a hub don't often realize how difficult it can be to travel from one spoke to another.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
November 1st, 2017 at 9:59:13 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 765
Posts: 9037
In 2016 these were the ten busiest airport hubs in USA (carrying 40% of airport activity)
ATL Atlanta
LAX Los Angeles
ORD Chicago
DFW Fort Worth
JFK New York
DEN Denver
SFO San Francisco International Airport
LAS Las Vegas
SEA Seattle
CLT Charlotte
PHX Phoenix

Thirty years ago these were the top 10
1. Atlanta-Hartsfield
2. Chicago-O'Hare
3. Los Angeles International
4. Dallas/Fort Worth
5. Denver-Stapleton
6. San Francisco International
7. Boston-Logan
8. Phoenix-Sky Harbor
9. St. Louis-Lambert
10. DETROIT-METROPOLITAN

Quote: Nareed
Those of us who live in a hub don't often realize how difficult it can be to travel from one spoke to another.


I think the most difficult thing is to be at a hub and get used to it (Like St Louis, Pittsburgh, Cincinatti or Cleveland) and be demoted to a spoke.

Quote: Nareed
I think they'd be wise to engage in some point-to-point flying, and the C Series is perfect for that.


People have been talking about breaking the hub and spoke method for decades almost since it formed after deregulation in 1978.

Southwest Airlines, comes the closest, but still they fly 1/3 passengers from seven airports (out of 86 domestic airports they serve).
Chicago, IL (Midway)
Las Vegas, NV
Baltimore, MD (BW)
Denver, CO
Phoenix, AZ
Dallas, TX (DAL airport)
Orlando, FL

Since the 60 smallest Southwestern airports only fly 1/3 of SW passengers, many of them have to transfer at larger airports to get to final destination So Southwest cannot avoid the hub and spoke system completely.

Only Allegiant airlines does not sell flights that involve a transfer.

The "scope clauses" in the US pilot contracts have existed since the 1990s. The major airlines are only allowed to sublet flights to regional airlines if they are 76 seats or fewer, and in addition they must limit the number of planes to some percentage of their mainline planes.

SkyWest Airlines (founded 1972) with 421 jets between 50 and 76 seats is the largest regional airline. SkyWest averages 2,214 departures a day, with 896 operating as Delta Connection, 861 operating as United Express, 357 operating as American Eagle and 99 operating as Alaska Airlines.

Other Regional Airlines include:
Air Wisconsin, Cape Air, CommutAir, Compass Airlines, Contour Aviation, Elite Airways, Endeavor Air, Envoy Air, ExpressJet, GoJet Airlines, Great Lakes Airlines, Horizon Air, Island Air, Mesa Airlines, PenAir, Piedmont Airlines, PSA Airlines, Ravn, Alaska Republic Airlines, Silver Airways,Trans States Airlines

As Skywest is the largest regional airline they may find that being limited by the "scope clauses" impedes their growth. If they strike out on their own they can't anger their primary customers.

Skywest may try to buy Bombardiers to fly some point to point routes which won't compete directly with their hub feeding operations.

Horizon Air is wholly owned by Alaska Airlines, and does fly some point to point operations, but they only have 10 regional jets and 50 turboprops. But they fly their Embraer 175 (76 seats) from San Diego to:
MMH Mammoth Lakes, CA 350 miles : skiing
MRY Monterey, CA 375 miles : outside of San Francisco
STS Santa Rosa, CA 508 miles : wine country north of San Francisco


Aeromexico Connect only has jets with 99 seats or fewer. I don't know if that is because of a "scope clause" with the pilots of Aeromexico.
November 1st, 2017 at 1:52:36 PM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 18
Posts: 841
I am convinced that LAS is the best airport for continental U.S. direct flights. Between the major carriers, Southwest, and Allegiant it seems like I can get a direct flight to where i want to go 99% of the time. Hopefully Allegiant will start flying some longer routes so that I can get to the small east coast city's.
November 1st, 2017 at 1:57:24 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 765
Posts: 9037
Probably neck and neck with Orlando for cheap nonstops.
LAS & MCO are the busiest airports in the USA that are not hubs. A hub may be a busy airport, but often the prices are high because of lack of competition

Busiest Airports in the USA in order by 2016 ~ Airline hub

ATL Atlanta ~ Delta
LAX Los Angeles ~ Delta & United
ORD Chicago ~ American & United
DFW Fort Worth ~ American
JFK New York ~ American & Delta
DEN Denver ~ United
SFO San Francisco ~ United
LAS Las Vegas --------------------------------------- Not a hub
SEA Seattle ~ Delta
CLT Charlotte ~ American
PHX Phoenix ~ American
MIA Miami ~ American
MCO Orlando --------------------------------------- Not a hub
IAH Houston ~ United
EWR Newark ~United
MSP Minneapolis ~ Delta
BOS Boston ~ Delta
DTW Detroit ~ Delta
LGA New York ~ American & Delta
PHL Philadelphia ~ American


Carrier Shares for August 2016 - July 2017 at Las Vegas
Southwest 41.97%
American 10.47%
Delta 9.02%
United 8.42%
Spirit 7.64%

Carrier Shares for August 2016 - July 2017 at Orlando
Southwest 28.78%
Delta 15.28%
American 14.68%
JetBlue 13.39%
United 10.00%

Hub airports often have over 50% of airport dominated by one airline
ATL Delta 72.73%
MIA American 70.01%
DFW American 68.15%
EWR United 50.32%
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