Elon Musk fantasy

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October 9th, 2017 at 11:44:06 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 763
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39 minutes NYC to Shanghai
October 10th, 2017 at 6:17:31 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 50
Posts: 5266
A great many are saying "vaporware" but who knows. Meanwhile he is using Puerto Rico challenges as his sole present focus.
October 10th, 2017 at 6:24:46 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 105
Posts: 7352
Quote: Fleastiff
Meanwhile he is using Puerto Rico challenges as his sole present focus.


He should spend more time on his auto company that has blown thru like $10 Billion dollars so far and a new model car that is not making production goals than on these fantasies.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
October 10th, 2017 at 10:10:07 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 50
Posts: 5266
Quote: AZDuffman
He should spend more time on his auto company that has blown thru like $10 Billion dollars so far ......
Its known as burn rate and is the name of the game these days. Go Fund Me a bankroll and let me burn thru it on Project X. I'll live well as we burn thru the funds and if any project actually does result I'll be able to raise more money for the next hair brained scheme.

Remember Spindletop? When finally did come in a major oil and gas strike, the most amazed people were the con men who had promoted it.

So will musk be considered a con man or a foresighted entrepreneur?
October 10th, 2017 at 10:24:58 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 105
Posts: 7352
Quote: Fleastiff
Its known as burn rate and is the name of the game these days. Go Fund Me a bankroll and let me burn thru it on Project X. I'll live well as we burn thru the funds and if any project actually does result I'll be able to raise more money for the next hair brained scheme.

So will musk be considered a con man or a foresighted entrepreneur?


It depends on if he can keep getting cheap money before the next financial crisis. Other automakers are getting tired of his subsidies. IMHO we are like the late 1990s, people throwing him money because, gollly--it just HAS to work. At some point some analyst somewhere is going to point out to his boss how much the equity has been diluted and how overpriced the stock of TSLA really is. Then look out below!
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
October 10th, 2017 at 10:30:14 AM permalink
Ayecarumba
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 85
Posts: 1426
While the point to point travel time will be relatively short, I expect a lot of time will need to be spent traveling to and from the launchpad as well as strapping in and going through pre-launch safety checks. I don' t know if this will end up being worth paying 500x the airliner rate for a tourist, but an organ donation recipient might appreciate it.

In any case, the world needs pathfinders willing to hack through the jungle vines allowing others to follow to destinations they would never have considered. Mr. Musk's job isn't to micro manage the production line at the Tesla factory, it's to constantly come up with TNBT.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:17:16 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 332
Posts: 11962
I posted about this: http://diversitytomorrow.com/thread/2411/0/

To wit:

Quote:
While I support the idea of suborbital passenger travel, I don't think a rocket is the way to go. For one thing, rockets are difficult to launch on a regular basis, much less on a daily basis. A successful suborbital transport company would have to make hundreds of rocket launches each day.

Rockets are also fickle, fragile (by design!) and dangerous. They can't operate near populated areas. in SpaceX's promo video, the rockets are seen launching from off-shore platforms, so there's an implicit acknowledgment of this. Even so, Musk had better have a reliable escape system and range safety officers <shudder>.

I see something like Virgin Galactic's Spaceship Two as a more viable alternative, even if flight times would be longer. I don't necessarily mean a carrier plane and dropped rocket ship. A plane with a hybrid jet/rocket engine would work as well, or with two sets of engines.


And I might add no one bit on the range safety thing. So:

Almost all rockets launched have a small explosive charge (really!) which can be set off remotely. This is with the objective of blowing up the rocket before it heads into a populated area. I don't know for sure manned rockets have this feature, but I assume they do.

Now, had NASA required to blow up even a Saturn V, well, the astronauts knew the risks and agreed to take them. Now, there were emergency escape systems in the Mercury flights (a rocket on top of the capsule, supposed to haul it away), Gemini (ejection seats) and Apollo (rocket on top). Musk's proposed Dragon crew capsule has onboard rockets (for landing) which can be used like the rocket on top of the Mercury and Apollo.

So he'd better put an effective escape system on his BFR, because if he has to blow up a suborbital launch with people aboard, it will be a BIG EFFING DEAL.

It's worth noting the escape systems described above were tested, but never had to be used. There's been talk the Apollo escape system could not have carried the capsule farther than the fireball from a first-stage explosion in the Saturn V.

The videos showing the BFRs taking off from ocean platforms might make the range safety issue moot, but then they'd be really far away from the cities, and would work only in coastal areas 8so no flights to London or Paris, or Frankfurt, for example).
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:40:20 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 105
Posts: 7352
Quote: Ayecarumba
Mr. Musk's job isn't to micro manage the production line at the Tesla factory, it's to constantly come up with TNBT.


Mr. Musk's job is not to come up with TNBT, it is to maximize the profit and value of Tesla Motot's for his shareholders. He has failed totally to do the first and the second is suspect. His time is better spent fixing production problems than planning things that will at best take decades to achieve and if they do be of no profit.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
October 10th, 2017 at 11:51:35 AM permalink
Dalex64
Member since: Mar 8, 2014
Threads: 2
Posts: 2076
I disagree that is goal is, and should be, maximizing profit and value of Tesla Motors for his shareholders.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan
October 10th, 2017 at 12:43:51 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 332
Posts: 11962
Quote: Ayecarumba
In any case, the world needs pathfinders willing to hack through the jungle vines allowing others to follow to destinations they would never have considered. Mr. Musk's job isn't to micro manage the production line at the Tesla factory, it's to constantly come up with TNBT.


The thing about Musk is that he has the skills, the ability, and, more importantly, the money to realize his vision.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
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