Bombardier CS100

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October 30th, 2017 at 7:40:12 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12534
Quote: Pacomartin
But it is pretty clear that Boeing has lost the battle for larger narrowbodies. The MAX-7 MAX-9 and MAX-10 aren't worth bupkis as far as Boeing is letting us know.


But it is the LARGE jet market. Many times more narrow bodies than wide bodies are sold each year.

Besides, if, say, Delta, goes with an all-airbus narrow body fleet, they're then more likely to acquire airbus wide bodies as well, since they'd be more similar to the narrow bodies they fly, ergo they present a gentler learning curve for their pilots, ground crews, and mechanics.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
October 30th, 2017 at 9:21:47 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 822
Posts: 9885
Quote: Nareed
But it is the LARGE jet market. Many times more narrow bodies than wide bodies are sold each year.

Besides, if, say, Delta, goes with an all-airbus narrow body fleet, they're then more likely to acquire airbus wide bodies as well, since they'd be more similar to the narrow bodies they fly, ergo they present a gentler learning curve for their pilots, ground crews, and mechanics.


Yes, it is a large market, by numbers sold. But there is probably a large market for 3 wheel vehicles. It doesn't mean that it will be profitable.

In any case, the Boeing orders for variations other than the baseline Max-8 are so small that the decision may be made for them. The large number of "unknown" is suspected to be really for the MAX-8, and is part of a public relations campaign. As long as they are "unknown" analysts might not realize the variations are in really deep trouble.
50 MAX-7 (six years worth of orders: 3 customers)
75 MAX-9
262 MAX-10
1465 unknown
October 30th, 2017 at 6:01:53 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12534
Quote: Pacomartin
Yes, it is a large market, by numbers sold. But there is probably a large market for 3 wheel vehicles. It doesn't mean that it will be profitable.


SUVs are quite popular of late, and bigger than they used to be, and not only among families with children. I assume they are quite profitable, too.

But that doesn't mean Toyota ought to stop designing 5-passenger sedans.


What I really want to know is the web addresses for those images you posted. I'd love to get a closer look.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
November 2nd, 2017 at 9:14:02 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Delta has not ordered a single aisle jet between 110 and 180 seats in twenty years. Which is unusual since they have well over 200 planes in this category over twenty years old.

Delta's mid size single aisle jets ranked by age
111 McDonnell Douglas MD-88: 27.4 Years order placed 01-Mar-1986
65 McDonnell Douglas MD-90: 20.8 Years order placed 1-Sep-1990
77 Boeing 737-800: 16.2 Years order placed 10-Jun-1997 deliveries began on 22-Oct-1998
10 Boeing 737-700: 8.8 Years order placed 10-Jun-1997 deliveries began on 31-Jul-2008
65 Airbus A320-200: 22.4 Years order placed by Northwest
57 Airbus A319-100: 15.8 Years order placed by Northwest

The 76 seat limit seems like it is going to be renewed for regional airlines.

Since the regional fleet cannot be grown given the pilot contracts, I have speculated that a major airline may try to create a bifurcated domestic fleet, one group using very small jets with lower paid day pilots, and a higher tier of larger jets with better paid pilots. It seems to me that Delta might be headed in this direction by purchasing only 110 seat and 180-192 seat planes.

Quote: Delta Air order record since Sep 2005 bankruptcy & Oct 29, 2008 purchase of Northwest

Delta's last Boeing order was for
120 737-900ER (180 seats) placed on 24-Aug-2011
+ 10 additional 737-900ERs from Boeing in the first quarter of 2017

Delta ordered A321 (192 seats) in five small orders over four years
30 A321 aircraft September 4, 2013,
15 additional A321 on June 2, 2014,
37 additional A321 on April 29, 2016,
30 additional A321 on May 11, 2017,
10 additional A321 on June 20, 2017, to bring its total to 122.

As well all know they collected 91 (110 seat) B717 from Southwest who didn't want them after they bought Airtrans
They have also ordered 75 (110 seat) CS100s from Bombardier with options for at least 50 more.




So if we have a city like San Diego, and Delta is feeding all of it's domestic hubs (except CVG, BOS and LGA), every plane can reach the hubs. I could have all CS100s if the pilot's are cheap enough. As I calculated above I would need to go from 20 round trips per day to 32round trips per day to get the same number of seats that I have presently. But the businessmen would have all the frequency possible.

Of course, I could be wrong and Delta may also be planning a large purchase of the CS300 to fill the 145 seat gap. Maybe they were just waiting for the inevitable political fallout to end.

Any ideas?
November 3rd, 2017 at 8:18:47 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12534
Quote: Pacomartin
Any ideas?


Yes. Let Delta solve its own problems :)

Actually it seems pretty obvious the CS 100s are replacements for the old DC-9s they still operate.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
November 3rd, 2017 at 12:41:02 PM permalink
Dalex64
Member since: Mar 8, 2014
Threads: 2
Posts: 2440
I don't see any DC9's in their current fleet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Air_Lines_fleet

They replaced them with 91 717's.

a note on their MD88's, though:
Quote:
Scheduled to be phased out by 2020.[43]
To be replaced by Airbus A321, Bombardier CS100 & Boeing 737-900ER.


no note on their MD90's.

they have 75 CS100s on order according to that page.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan
November 3rd, 2017 at 1:45:03 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
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Quote: Dalex64
I don't see any DC9's in their current fleet.


and then you say:

Quote:
They replaced them with 91 717's.


Same difference.

All the MD-80s, MD-88s, MD-90s, MD-95s, and B717s are DC-9s. The designation changed, but they're mods of the basic DC-9 design.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
November 3rd, 2017 at 2:56:52 PM permalink
Dalex64
Member since: Mar 8, 2014
Threads: 2
Posts: 2440
There you go again equating 60's technology with 90's.

You said they have "old DC9's" and they don't.

The MD80's, even if they were known originally as DC-9 series 80, are of the same era as the original A320's.
The 757's, 767's and what few 747s they have left are also that old.

I wouldn't have contradicted you if you pointed out that the MD80's are old, and what are going to be replaced by the Bombardier's, but I find your lack of precision when discussing aircraft to be disappointing. It doesn't look like they are replacing the MD90's or B717's (MD95)
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan
November 3rd, 2017 at 3:21:18 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12534
Quote: Dalex64
There you go again equating 60's technology with 90's.


Thank you :)

Quote:
You said they have "old DC9's" and they don't.


Ok. they have old DC-9s with latter designations like B717.

Quote:
The MD80's, even if they were known originally as DC-9 series 80, are of the same era as the original A320's.


I've also criticized Airbus for their thirtyish year old design.

Here's the nuanced analysis:

New technologies tend to change quickly at the beginning of their development. Therefore the earlier models of, say, jet aircraft, tend to give way to newer ones with much improved performance rather fast. eventually progress in the field becomes incremental and some basics are nailed down as either "good enough" or "as good as can be." Therefore latter designs hold on for a while.


Quote:
but I find your lack of precision when discussing aircraft to be disappointing.


It doesn't bother me one bit.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
November 4th, 2017 at 4:00:34 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 822
Posts: 9885
Quote: Dalex64

...a note on their MD88's, though:
Quote:
Scheduled to be phased out by 2020.[43]
To be replaced by Airbus A321, Bombardier CS100 & Boeing 737-900ER.

no note on their MD90's.


The MD-88's are an average of 27.4 years old with the very oldest first flown 30.7 years old, while the MD-90's are only an average of 20.8 years old. The Delta executives probably won't make a decision for a few years yet.

The contrast between the Delta fleet and the Aeroméxico fleet is striking considering that Delta owns 49% of Aeroméxico. AM's oldest plane is 14.2 years old. AM's oldest widebody is now 11.7 years old. Aeroméxico Connect does not have a plane older than 10.1 years.
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