PA congressional districts

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May 4th, 2018 at 5:53:42 AM permalink
beachbumbabs
Member since: Sep 3, 2013
Threads: 6
Posts: 1600
Quote: SOOPOO
This is what Democrats refer to as gerrymandering.


No, they really don't. What the Republicans have done in many states is to concentrate huge majorities in a few Democratic districts, while parsing just enough Republicans to win into as many districts as possible. Big difference.

A good example of this in Florida was Corrine Brown's district last decade. We/they were forced to fix this.

Will try and find a map of it and provide a link here.

Edit: look at the maps here, under historical boundaries, and read the first couple paragraphs about the gerrymandering.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida%27s_3rd_congressional_district
Never doubt a small group of concerned citizens can change the world; it's the only thing ever has
May 4th, 2018 at 9:59:24 AM permalink
Dalex64
Member since: Mar 8, 2014
Threads: 3
Posts: 3687
I shouldn't have to explain the difference in proportional district allocation by party between the two methods.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan
May 4th, 2018 at 5:49:59 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
By the numbers,

There are currently 23 African American (AA) majority congressional districts, but 13 were created after the 1990 census. Every district with an AA majority is represented by an AA congressman (except Memphis) . In addition there are 22 AA congressman that represent districts where constituents are not majority AA (including one Republican). A second Republican AA congressman is now a senator.

The fact that of the 44 AA congressmen only half are from AA majority districts is encouraging that some people are voting color blind.

There are six AA congressional districts less than 25% AA that have AA congressman.

While the primary objective of increasing AA representation in congress has been met, it is clear that drawing careful boundaries of the remaining districts has benefited Republicans. There are two parts to drawing districts with benefits in mind, cracking and stacking.

Both parties Gerrymander, but the concentration of minorities in urban districts make the Republican efforts much more visible. Also some crazy districts have been drawn to combine Puerto Rican and Mexican neighborhoods together to create Latino majority districts.

Gerrymandered Latino District . The 4th Illinois District is by far the most Latino by percentage outside of Texas, California, and Florida. People would obviously object to any mathematical formula that breaks up this district.


As I said earlier, it was simply arrogance on the part of Pennsylvania Republicans to create the 7th district. While the districts after the 2000 census clearly helped Republicans, it was more subtle.

May 5th, 2018 at 3:33:37 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Pacomartin


While the primary objective of increasing AA representation in congress has been met, it is clear that drawing careful boundaries of the remaining districts has benefited Republicans. There are two parts to drawing districts with benefits in mind, cracking and stacking.


Ah, a case of, "Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it!"

Residential patterns in the USA are such that it is not all that hard to "stack" a minority district, they already stacked themselves. In popular culture "urban" means "black." By making minority-majority districts, what has happened is those pols will never get a higher office. The system produces moonbats who will run on say a platform of slavery reparations. Gets them the primary, which ensures election. Then they go nowhere but to make occasional noise.

To take the MM districts away is to ensure decades of court fights over the "equal protection" clause.
The President is a fink.
May 5th, 2018 at 6:36:46 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: AZDuffman
To take the MM districts away is to ensure decades of court fights over the "equal protection" clause.


Well in the case of Pennsylvania, you have to be careful not to overstate the importance of minority majority districts. There is only ONE MM district in Pennsylvania and it has been occupied by a AA man since the earliest days of the civil rights movement. Historically it was the fourth district to be occupied by a black man post WWI . The first was Chicago in the election 1928, Harlem in 1944, Detroit in 1954, Philadelphia in 1958, Los Angeles in 1962, a second Congressman in Detroit in 1964. Once one black man was elected Congressman, every election after that elected a black man. Then there were three new ones in 1968 and five new ones in 1970.

So the charges of Republican Gerrymandering which began to emerge after the 2000 census redistrict and got serious after the 2010 census don't really have anything to do with the single minority majority district.

6-D, 10-R going into the 2018 election as two seats will be empty. In addition two Republican congressmen will retire early and one is running for Senator, so there will only be 7 Republican congressmen running as incumbents,

2016 5-D, 13-R (Democrat's control 2 Philadelphia , 1 Pittsburgh, 1 suburban Phil, 1 small cities like Scranton, W-B and Easton)
2014 5-D, 13-R
2012 5-D, 13-R

2010 6-D, 13-R Republican delegation
2008 12-D, 7-R Democratic delegation
2006 11-D, 8-R Democratic delegation
2004 7 -D, 12-R Republican delegation
2002 7 -D, 12-R Republican delegation
May 18th, 2018 at 7:09:15 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569



In all the four crucial races in the Philadelphia suburbs of Pennsylvania, the Democratic candidate is a woman. The Republicans have nominated one woman out of four.
#4 D+7 Madeleine Dean (Democratic) vs Dan David (Republican)
#5 D+13 Mary Gay Scanlon (Democratic) vs Pearl Kim (Republican)
#6 D+2 Chrissy Houlahan (Democratic) vs Greg McCauley (Republican)
#7 D+1 Susan Wild (Democratic) vs Marty Nothstein (Republican)

District #5 is a guaranteed win for Democrats.She would have to a pedophile to even have a chance of losing.

Two other female Democratic candidates are running in the more conservative portion of the state

If these four woman can win and join their 5 incumbent male Democrats the Democrats will have a 9-9 split delegation.
#2. Brendan Boyle (D) D+25
#3. Dwight Evans (D) D+41
#18. Michael F. Doyle (D) D+13
....
#8. Matt Cartwright (D) R+1
#17. Conor Lamb (D) from March 13, 2018 ) R+3

Before the redistricting, Matt Cartwright (D) was considered beatable, now John Chrin (Republican) has a shot. Conor Lamb won the surprise victory in March, but Republicans are hoping it was because of the small turnout in the special election when only 228,830 voted. He is a Democrat but is popular because of his conviction rate against Pittsburgh criminals. But he is running against another incumbent, Republican Keith Rothfus. The redistricting put them in the same district

The seven Republican incumbents are expected to win. Two other districts without an incumbent are expected

If only one name, the candidate is an incumbent.
Pennsylvania #1 R+1 Brian Fitzpatrick
Pennsylvania #9 R+14 Dan Meuser (Republican) vs Denny Wolff (Democratic)
Pennsylvania #10 R+6 Scott Perry
Pennsylvania #11 R+14 Lloyd Smucker
Pennsylvania #12 R+17 Tom Marino
Pennsylvania #13 R+22 Bill Shuster
Pennsylvania #14 R+14 Guy Reschenthaler (Republican) vs Bibiana Boerio (Democratic)
Pennsylvania #15 R+20 Glenn Thompson
Pennsylvania #16 R+8 Mike Kelly

Ratings are from Cook Partisan Voting Index
November 7th, 2018 at 9:13:23 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569


On the old map, Democrats only had 1st, 2nd, and 13th district in Philly area. (3 districts)
On the new map, Democrats won 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th ,7th in Philly area (6 districts)

The women are

#4 Madeleine Dean (Democratic) vs Dan David (Republican)
#5 Mary Gay Scanlon (Democratic) vs Pearl Kim (Republican)
#6 Chrissy Houlahan (Democratic) vs Greg McCauley (Republican)
#7 Susan Wild (Democratic) vs Marty Nothstein (Republican)

Prior to this election only 7 women have served as congressmen in the entire history of PA.
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