Future of Commercial TV

Might be more profit selling just the secondary stuff. Suprised the channels allow it. H2 is almost ag good as the real thing but surely does not get the same per subscriber fee.

Quote: AZDuffman

I am of the school of thought that sports interest in the USA peaked about 5 years ago but nobody has noticed yet. Not everything is declining yet, but some things are. One is attendance at NFL games, off a few percent. The parabolic revenue growth snce 1980 is near over. What happens next will be fun to watch, though I will be watching less and less.

Couldn't that be due to the recession? NFL games are effing expensive, and clearly a luxury. I don't necessarily disagree with your point, although it's the first time I've heard anyone bring it up.

Quote: Pacomartin

I suppose you are correct. Many people thought that the decision in 2006 to move Monday Night Football to ESPN making it unavailable to the 10% of TV households who do not have cable.

My dad was PISSED when that happened. My parents have never had cable and he watched MNF religiously every Monday while I was growing up. I don't think he misses it now.

Also Paco, you're missing a predicate in that sentence there :).

Quote: AcesAndEights

Couldn't that be due to the recession? NFL games are effing expensive, and clearly a luxury. I don't necessarily disagree with your point, although it's the first time I've heard anyone bring it up.

My dad was PISSED when that happened. My parents have never had cable and he watched MNF religiously every Monday while I was growing up. I don't think he misses it now.

Currently, the television networks pay
CBS ($3.73B), NBC ($3.6B) and Fox ($4.27B) ESPN ($8.8B) = $20.4 billion (contract that ends in 2013).
From 2014 to 2022, the same networks will pay $39.6 billion for the same broadcast rights.

NBC was valued at negative $600 million net worth in 2010. The balance sheets show profits in the order of a few hundred million today. So with franchise fees doubling it is difficult to see how they can grow revenue to make up for that kind of increase in costs.

NBC had to cut Jay Leno's salary in half and now they are replacing him. He was probably making $500,000 for five shows. Mariska Hargitay is their only actor or actress with a super size salary left. She was making $500,000 per episode last year.

I understand that NBC is going to do a 24 hour game show for an entire week this summer. I presume that they will break for news broadcasts.

NBC Sunday night football is one of the highest rated shows in television, but that is a lot of money.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Also Paco, you're missing a predicate in that sentence there :).

I have developed aphasia and now seem to type stupid things on forums. I change my sentence and for some reason I don't notice that the final product is semi-literate.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Quote: AZDuffman

I am of the school of thought that sports interest in the USA peaked about 5 years ago but nobody has noticed yet. Not everything is declining yet, but some things are. One is attendance at NFL games, off a few percent. The parabolic revenue growth snce 1980 is near over. What happens next will be fun to watch, though I will be watching less and less.

Couldn't that be due to the recession? NFL games are effing expensive, and clearly a luxury. I don't necessarily disagree with your point, although it's the first time I've heard anyone bring it up.

Some is probably due to he recession but I think there is more to it than that. Cost-wise they are hitting too big of an increase for fans. Then there is the overload of game and coverage. It just is not as special as it was as late as the1980s. And as a straight, white, male I kind of feel they want my money but not my business. Finally I cannot take seriously a league that lets convicts play after a 4 game suspension but says they care about their image. I will never forgive them for letting Vick play again, ever.

Quote:

My dad was PISSED when that happened. My parents have never had cable and he watched MNF religiously every Monday while I was growing up. I don't think he misses it now.

Also Paco, you're missing a predicate in that sentence there :).

I was do busy remodeling my house this fall I missed most games. Had them on the radio but barely paid attention. I skipped watching the Super Bowl by choice. The world did not end.

Yes I am on the leading edge and I may be wrong. But something has to give. Law of large numbers will take over, I predict in the 2020s fans and networks alike will say "no more" to the crazy price increases.

Quote: AZDuffman

Yes I am on the leading edge and I may be wrong. But something has to give. Law of large numbers will take over, I predict in the 2020s fans and networks alike will say "no more" to the crazy price increases.

Look at the numbers

2012 NBC Broadcast Television revenue $8,154 million
2012 NBC Operating Income Before Depreciation and Amortization $369 million

The production budget for the tonight show was reported at $1.7 million a week times 45 weeks a year = $76.5 million annually. (The production spend doesn't include salaries for the host or top producers).
Jay Leno recently took a pay cut to about $15 million a year, and Fallon is expected to make less than that to start.) Network sources say Tonight now generates just $30 million to $40 million a year in profit.

The future of Commercial TV in the home?, nothing less than MORE commercials, what else???

Quote: Pacomartin

Look at the numbers

2012 NBC Broadcast Television revenue $8,154 million
2012 NBC Operating Income Before Depreciation and Amortization $369 million

Now you know that NBC pays $3,600 million for their rights to broadcast Sunday night football, and that is going to double next year.

How do you turn a profit? Not with small incremental increases in revenue and minor cost cuts.

.

Part of the allure of football to the networks has been all the chances to use it to give push to their other shows, which do earn profit Or should we say "did?" IMHO NBC killed itself when it killed their 10-11PM shows for all-Leno a few years back. Having to rebuild 1/3 of your shows can take years. Then take into account how lazy the networks are at developing decent shows and NBC's days may be numbered.

Quote: AZDuffman

Part of the allure of football to the networks has been all the chances to use it to give push to their other shows, which do earn profit Or should we say "did?" IMHO NBC killed itself when it killed their 10-11PM shows for all-Leno a few years back. Having to rebuild 1/3 of your shows can take years. Then take into account how lazy the networks are at developing decent shows and NBC's days may be numbered.

Well they have a reasonable selection of hour long dramas. They have already renewed five shows.
Chicago Fire
Grimm
Law & Order: SVU
Parenthood
Revolution

Outside of Parks and Recreation they have no successful half hour comedies.

What have the bell ringers been? The really profitable TV shows of late?

Weeds, Breaking Bad, Loonie Walkers of the Dead, ...
Most of the stuff seems to have been on premium channels which probably means more sex and fewer commercials.

Quote: Fleastiff

What have the bell ringers been? The really profitable TV shows of late?

Weeds, Breaking Bad, Loonie Walkers of the Dead, ...
Most of the stuff seems to have been on premium channels which probably means more sex and fewer commercials.

Forbes did a list last year of advertising revenue. They called them the most profitable shows, but they are not really trying to calculate "revenue - production cost", just revenue.

With premium cable shows, you have to calculate it for the entire network. Needless to say NBC makes ten times as much profit on their cable channels, than on broadcast shows.

10. Modern Family – $2.13 million per half hour.
9. Mad Love – $2.49 million per half hour.
8. The Big Bang Theory – $2.57 million per half hour.
7. Desperate Housewives – $2.61 million per half hour.
6. Dancing With The Stars – $2.72 million per half hour.
5. Grey's Anatomy – $2.75 million per half hour.
4. Glee – $2.83 million per half hour.
3. Two And A Half Men – $3.24 million per half hour.
2. The X Factor – $5.55 million per half hour.
1. American Idol – $6.64 million per half hour.

Surprisingly #9 , Mad Love, was cancelled. I think that advertisers paid a lot of money based on it's time slots between two successful comedies. But ratings were low. The stars of that show are on TV all the time.