Future of Commercial TV

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April 29th, 2013 at 6:20:56 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 807
Posts: 9715
Why Are Cable Companies Forcing People to Turn to Piracy? by Megan McArdle Nov 28, 2012 10:38 AM EST

This article is a deviation from the topic of this thread as it is about TV without commercials. But it is a similar theme,

The author purchased the first season of the TV series Homeland from the iTunes Store ($32 for 12 episodes). She loved the show, but season 2 was airing on Showtime. Since she couldn't buy the new season for another one she contemplated buying pirated copies,

Production costs of the show $3m per episode x 12 episodes per season.

She makes the argument that "Homeland" was not produced to sell shows in iTunes, it's purpose is to make you buy subscription to Showtime. Same argument why HBO Go is not released as a standalone product.

Cable companies would lose money if you could buy HBO Go for $20 without first buying basic cable (which includes access to ESPN, Mtv, etc). Basically, economic theory (and some reasonable assumptions about the structure of demand) suggests that an a la carte video market could not make as much money as a bundled video market. Furthermore she argues that Showtime's job is to make basic cable more profitable since cable companies usually require you to buy a subscription to basic cable before purchasing Showtime. Total affiliate fee revenue was $32 billion in the United States last year, with CBS/Showtime taking $273 million of that.

Anyway,the RCN cable company is pushing the boundaries of that business model. They are selling internet for $40 a month + $10 each HDTV box to watch ABC, CBS,.... Alternatively you can purchase first tier commercial cable for $60 a month + $10 each HDTV box. In order to appeal to people who would get internet and just watch Netflix, they are now selling Showtime, or HBO without requiring the first tier TV stations. You cannot purchase Fox News Channel or ESPN alone because the owners of those stations would not permit that.
April 29th, 2013 at 9:40:25 PM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
Quote: Pacomartin

Surprisingly #9 , Mad Love, was cancelled. I think that advertisers paid a lot of money based on it's time slots between two successful comedies. But ratings were low. The stars of that show are on TV all the time.


It had just found it's stride by episode 9 or 10. Which is probably far too long for TV land.
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
April 30th, 2013 at 3:34:27 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 106
Posts: 7862
Quote: Pacomartin


Cable companies would lose money if you could buy HBO Go for $20 without first buying basic cable (which includes access to ESPN, Mtv, etc). Basically, economic theory (and some reasonable assumptions about the structure of demand) suggests that an a la carte video market could not make as much money as a bundled video market. Furthermore she argues that Showtime's job is to make basic cable more profitable since cable companies usually require you to buy a subscription to basic cable before purchasing Showtime. Total affiliate fee revenue was $32 billion in the United States last year, with CBS/Showtime taking $273 million of that.


I don't doubt this, but it will not be sustainable in the long term. The music industry refused to change after years of making you buy the entire album to get the one song you liked. Napster came along and crushed them. It might be a mix of legal and pirated material, but the same will happen to cable somehow.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
May 11th, 2013 at 11:20:40 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 54
Posts: 5885
I've heard of many of these, probably watched about five.
May 11th, 2013 at 1:31:12 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 807
Posts: 9715
Quote: Fleastiff
I've heard of many of these, probably watched about five.


Scripted Network TV series are not much of a cultural force anymore.

The word "Drama" is used loosely to refer to 1 hour shows .

Fox needs fewer shows since it airs news at 10PM. Cartoons and light shows or horror--------
FOX Drama: (3 hours) "Bones,""The Following," "Glee,"
FOX Comedy: (3.5 hours) "American Dad," "Bob's Burgers," "Family Guy," "The Simpsons," "The Mindy Project," "New Girl," "Raising Hope,"

NBC is hurting, particularly in comedies--------
NBC Drama (5 hours) "Chicago Fire," "Grimm," "Law & Order: SVU," "Parenthood," "Revolution," No decision yet: (1 hour) "Hannibal"
NBC Comedy (1 hours) "Parks and Recreation," "Community"

ABC is becoming the woman's network--------
ABC Drama: (6 hours) "Castle," "Grey's Anatomy," "Nashville," "Once Upon a Time," "Revenge," "Scandal"
ABC Comedy: (2 hours) "Suburgatory," "Modern Family," "The Middle," "Last Man Standing"
ABC Comedy No Decision: (.5 hours) "The Neighbors"

CBS is the last network to remain fully committed to scripted shows--------
CBS Drama: (10 hours) "Blue Bloods," "Elementary," "The Good Wife," "Hawaii Five-0," "The Mentalist," "Person of Interest,"
"Criminal Minds" "CSI," "NCIS," "NCIS: Los Angeles,"
CBS Comedy: (2.5 hours) "2 Broke Girls," "The Big Bang Theory," "How I Met Your Mother," "Mike & Molly," "Two and a Half Men,"

Today the numbers are very low with 9 out of 11 series that gets over 10 million average viewers on CBS

Average number of viewers in Millions
19.27 NCIS
16.86 The Big Bang Theory
15.68 NCIS: Los Angeles
14.41 Person of Interest
13.23 Two and a Half Men
11.51 Criminal Minds
11.16 Modern Family (highest rated non - CBS show: ABC)
10.81 Blue Bloods
10.80 Elementary
10.47 CSI Las Vegas
10.18 Castle (second highest rated non - CBS show: ABC)
9.88 Vegas <=============cancelled (CBS)
9.88 Two Broke Girls
9.66 CSI NY <=============cancelled (CBS)
9.54 Mike and Molly
9.43 The Mentalist
9.41 The Good Wife
9.08 Grey's Anatomy - (third highest rated non - CBS show: ABC)
9.08 Hawaii Five-0
8.51 Once Upon A Time - (fourth highest rated non - CBS show: ABC)
8.30 How I Met Your Mother (lowest rated CBS show to be renewed)
8.25 Golden Boy <=============cancelled (CBS)
8.07 The Middle - ABC
8.04 Body Of Proof <=============cancelled (ABC)
7.96 The Following - FOX
7.75 Bones- FOX
7.54 Revolution (highest rated NBC show renewed)
7.45 Scandal - ABC
7.07 Revenge - ABC
6.99 Last Man Standing - ABC
6.58 Chicago Fire - NBC
6.34 Malibu Country <=============cancelled
6.33 Law and Order SVU- NBC
6.26 Last Resort <=============cancelled
6.19 The Neighbors- ABC
6.01 Suburgatory - ABC
5.95 Nashville - (lowest rated ABC show renewed)
5.86 Glee- FOX
5.67 Go On <=============cancelled
5.61 Zero Hour <=============cancelled
5.5 Family Guy- FOX
5.39 The Simpsons- FOX
5.17 Grimm - NBC
4.98 Parenthood - NBC
4.93 Red Widow <=============cancelled
4.66 666 Park Avenue <=============cancelled
4.64 Private Practice <=============cancelled
4.48 American Dad- FOX
4.40 The New Girl- FOX
4.09 The Office <=============cancelled/finished
4.04 The New Normal <=============cancelled
3.89 Guys with Kids <=============cancelled
3.77 Raising Hope- FOX
3.65 Whitney <=============cancelled
3.64 30 Rock <=============cancelled/finished
3.63 Deception <=============cancelled
3.46 The Mob Doctor <=============cancelled
3.33 The Cleveland Show <=============cancelled
3.31 Hannibal - NBC
3.29 Parks and Recreation - NBC
3.23 Arrow
3.08 The Mindy Project (lowest rated FOX show renewed)
3.05 Happy Endings <=============cancelled
3.01 Up All Night <=============cancelled
2.93 Smash <=============cancelled
2.90 Community (lowest rated NBC show renewed)
2.86 1600 Penn <=============cancelled
2.86 Don't Trust the Bitch <=============cancelled
2.84 Fringe <=============cancelled/finished
2.82 Ben and Kate <=============cancelled
2.68 Touch <=============cancelled
2.67 Do No Harm <=============cancelled
2.66 Vampire Diaries <=============cancelled
2.11 Supernatural
1.63 Beauty and the Beast
1.36 Hart of Dixie
1.27 Emily Owens <=============cancelled
1.14 Carrie Diaries
1.13 Nikita
0.89 Gossip Girl <=============cancelled/finished
0.78 90210 <=============cancelled
0.71 Cult <=============cancelled
May 12th, 2013 at 9:28:55 PM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
Go On got cancelled? Shame, that was actually a funny Matthew Perry show.
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
May 13th, 2013 at 12:34:13 AM permalink
1nickelmiracle
Member since: Mar 5, 2013
Threads: 16
Posts: 549
It's a shame Up All night was cancelled, but Christina Applegate had already quit it. Will Arnett is always funny and he'll be on Arrested Development on Netflix for a 4th Season May 26th. Disappointing to read on Wikipedia, it's only going to be a 4th season as a prelude for a movie.

Hannibal is quite disturbing for my tastes and I know I probably won't want to see that show again.
May 13th, 2013 at 3:18:53 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 54
Posts: 5885
I've no idea what this means. Too many shows splitting the market or too many shows and none of them of any particular quality that they get a significant market share. Should they pay for better writers or better actors or is it just throw things at the screen and wait for a blockbuster to arrive?

I watched that Red Widow and was shocked that in this day and age of empowered women everything was happening "to" her and she was at all at sea amidst conflict and ignorance and most of all personal confusion. One would think that the show would have tried to capture todays independent minded women with a show that featured a woman whose transformation from suburbian life to a life of crime was immediate and competent. Instead, the woman was depicted as someone who knew nothing, couldn't take control of a situation, couldn't even get her stupid kid to tie his shoelaces.

I expected a more Polly Peachum type show in which acceptance of crime and depravity was immediate and everyone was dealt with effectively instead of a show that celebrated ignorance and inaction.
May 13th, 2013 at 3:20:04 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 106
Posts: 7862
Quote: Fleastiff
I've no idea what this means. Too many shows splitting the market or too many shows and none of them of any particular quality that they get a significant market share. Should they pay for better writers or better actors or is it just throw things at the screen and wait for a blockbuster to arrive?


For sure there are more shows splitting the market, but the networks have really killed themselves over the years and forced people to leave. TV has become like a little town with only one diner with terrible food, but it was always filled because it was the only place to go. Now new diners have opened and the customers deserted the bad place.

It is so many pieces that they get wrong. Instead of trying to write something that entertains they try to "shock" with things closer and closer to the edge. They rely too much on the same old formats and same kind of writing within the formats. Every "lesson" the shows push is tilted left and insults 50% of the audience to the point many just leave. You can flat-out see so much casting is simply to put an actor or actress in based on some "diversity" goal. When the show does finally get to air you see 6 new episodes then a break of a few weeks, which ruins the continuity for the viewer.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
May 13th, 2013 at 12:29:29 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 807
Posts: 9715
Quote: AZDuffman
When the show does finally get to air you see 6 new episodes then a break of a few weeks, which ruins the continuity for the viewer.


Netflix thinks that they have a serious edge with their TV series. They are releasing the entire season at once, and the user decides how fast or slow he wants to watch the episodes. Netflix ended 2012 with 27.15 million domestic subscribers, while data from SNL Kagan said that HBO ended 2012 with 28.7 million subscribers. It is believed that the 2 million subscribers that Netflix added the first quarter of 2013 have pushed them past HBO.
Netflix is cutting back on it's contracts with movie studios, and is planning to air more custom series. The "House of Cards" TV series that they produced was considered a runaway success and it is hoped that it will increase subscribers.

Now HBO is much more expensive to the consumer than Netflix. Partly because it requires you to pay your basic cable bill first.

At some point Netflix will probably have to offer a tiered service where some customers pay a premium to watch newer productions. Possibly when they have as many subscribers as ESPN they will be able to offer a sports tier and bid on major league sports. Right now, they could probably go after some minor sports who can't get time on network TV.

In response, my local cable company began offering over the air tv + internet starting at $40, and then you can purchase HBO and Cinemax for as little as $13 over that amount (or Showtime/ The Movie Channel and Starz/Encore for $8). There are some hidden costs as you must pay for setop boxes in order to descramble the signal for each TV. But they are putting HBO more in line with Netflix cost wise.

Showtime is gambling heavily on their custom series like Homeland, Dexter, and Weeds.

Cable is becoming the dominant way to get internet as phone companies are losing interest in digital subscriber lines. I saw that Verizon is now refusing to replace some of the DSL lines lost to Hurricane Sandy. Phone companies have little interest in installing "plain old fashioned" land line telephone service either. They are usually obligated by law to provide a minimum service, but they get around that by pricing unlimited calling very high. That way people will opt for cheaper cellular service (including fixed cellular service).
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