Future of Commercial TV

Quote: Pacomartin

So even if we all had 1 Gb fiber optics into our home, video on demand will never completely replace broadcast.

I dunno, ... I'm watchin' UXB season one right now.

Quote: Fleastiff

I dunno, ... I'm watchin' UXB season one right now.

From 30 some years ago?

Quote: Pacomartin

From 30 some years ago?

Judy Geeson is in, starting with episode two, I believe.
Three into Two Won't Go, To Sir With Love, The Killing of Sister George, ... doubt UXB will be showing her tits in a Lesbian seduction scene though!

Cablevision:Landmark Court Ruling
The 2008 court case was won by Cablevision.

Cablevision wanted to create "remote DVR's", i.e. customer controlled DVR service where there is no hard disk at the customer's house. Producers implied that it was copyright infringement. Cablevision developed technology that didn't make sense technically, but allowed them to prove that they were not violating copyright law. This ruling paved the way for technologies such as Aereo personal antennas where your content is transmitted via internet.

Netflix's Race to Become a Content Producer Before the Producers Swallow Netflix

This article outlines the conflict between business plans of Netflix and HBO. Netflix is trying to become similar to HBO, in terms of content. But HBO has to cater to larger corporate interests, and is structured as an upcharge to your cable package while Netflix is structured as a broadband subscription service.

Production budgets of major TV series like Homeland or Game of Thrones are often over $100 million for the season. They rival major theatrical budgets (admittedly for a lot more hours of video). As with movies, spectacular failures will sometimes result (i.e. After Earth's $130 million budget).

Will Netflix be able to withstand the variance?

I've never seen Duck Dynasty. NBC should just stop making comedies or even dramas.

CBS 1. NCIS 21.6 million
NBC 2. SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL 21.0 million
CBS 3. THE BIG BANG THEORY 19.0 million
CBS 4. NCIS: LOS ANGELES CBS 17.5 million
CBS 5. PERSON OF INTEREST CBS 16.2 million
Fox 6. AMERICAN IDOL (Wednesday) 15.1 million
ABC 7. DANCING WITH THE STARS (Monday) 15.0 million
Fox 8. AMERICAN IDOL (Thursday) 14.8 million
NBC 9. THE VOICE (Monday) 14.4 million*
AMC 10. THE WALKING DEAD 14.3 million
ABC 11. DANCING WITH THE STARS (Tuesday) 14.0 million
CBS 12. TWO AND A HALF MEN 13.9 million
NBC 13. THE VOICE (Tuesday) 13.5 million
CBS 14. BLUE BLOODS 13.3 million
CBS 15. ELEMENTARY 13.0 million
ESPN 16. MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL 12.9 million
ABC 17. MODERN FAMILY 12.7 million
CBS 18. CRIMINAL MINDS 12.6 million
Fox 19. THE OT 12.5 million ( A wrap-up of the day's NFL action with the 'Fox NFL Sunday' crew.)
ABC 20. CASTLE 12.5 million
A&E 21 DUCK DYNASTY 12.4 million
CBS tie. 60 MINUTES 12.4 million
CBS 22. VEGAS 12.0 million - CANCELLED
Fox 23. THE FOLLOWING 11.9 million
CBS tie. SURVIVOR: PHILIPPINES CBS 11.9 million
CBS tie. CSI CBS 11.9 million

With seven days' worth of DVR usage included in their season averages, these are the most-watched shows of the 2012-13 TV season.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think that NBCUniversal can produce a popular TV show.

NBC could have resurrected Arrested Development cheaply, air it on Thursday night, and got tons of free publicity from the critics. No one was watching Arrested Development in 2004, but Netflix turned it into a respectable hit in 2013. Surely if Netflix could afford it, NBCUniversalComcast could, too.

Instead, this Thursday, NBC is airing new episodes of Save Me and Hannibal. I have no idea what those shows are and I don't plan to watch them, do you?

The networks are increasingly becoming enamored to what is called the 10-90 business model. A new potential series gets 10 episodes to attract an audience, and if it passes it gets an immediate order for 90 more episodes.

The positive for the studio is that the actors get locked into an agreed pay compensation for the entire run of the series, instead of outrageous salary jumps every year if successful. On the other hand it gives actors a guaranteed job for 100 episodes even if the series fades in popularity. Given the steady nature, they might film episodes far in advance and be cut loose to pursue movie work while still getting a paycheck. There may be incentive bonuses that kick in if certain ratings levels are reached.

It is not clear if networks would renew these series after 100 episodes. The salary demands could be prohibitive

The current crop of long running series (mostly on CBS) may be the last

Episodes - Series - Network
106 Psych USA
172 Supernatural CW
319 Law & Order: SVU NBC
164 Bones Fox
196 Grey's Anatomy ABC
105 Castle ABC

Episodes - Series - CBS
295 CSI: Crime Scene Investigation
234 NCIS
222 Two and a Half Men
186 Criminal Minds
184 How I Met Your Mother (to end after next year)
133 The Big Bang Theory (actors contract renewal after next year)
116 The Mentalist

Quote: Pacomartin

The networks are increasingly becoming enamored to what is called the 10-90 business model. A new potential series gets 10 episodes to attract an audience, and if it passes it gets an immediate order for 90 more episodes.

The positive for the studio is that the actors get locked into an agreed pay compensation for the entire run of the series, instead of outrageous salary jumps every year if successful. On the other hand it gives actors a guaranteed job for 100 episodes even if the series fades in popularity. Given the steady nature, they might film episodes far in advance and be cut loose to pursue movie work while still getting a paycheck. There may be incentive bonuses that kick in if certain ratings levels are reached.

The networks doing something that makes sense??? WOW!

I can see a few positives from this. 10 episodes is about enough time to find an audience or at least prove there will never be one. The 100 episodes also gives the writers a set period of time to develop longer-term story arcs, which we seem to like even in sitcoms. And 100 episodes is the minimum needed for syndication, which is where the profits often lie.

Quote: AZDuffman

And 100 episodes is the minimum needed for syndication, which is where the profits often lie.

Well that is the idea. If you can make more series with 100 episodes without being shaken down by the stars agents, then TV might be more profitable. It's ridiculous to think that Angus Jones (the teenager on two and half men) should be among the highest paid actors on TV. He is only paid that much because he was considered essential character for the show. Now he is being replaced with an actress.

As always with entertainment, sometimes shows made on very low budgets end up being classics, while other high budgets produce boring television or movies.

In TV series, the low budget episodes with no scene changes, no special effects and with no guest stars are called "bottle episodes". They can be rote and repetitive, but in some cases they can become famous.

One of the most famous bottle episode of Seinfeld was the Chinese Restaurant, where Elaine, Jerry, and George (no Kramer) are trying to get a seat in a chinese restaurant. There is one small scene change, the episode moves in real time, and nothing happens.

Quote: Pacomartin

As always with entertainment, sometimes shows made on very low budgets end up being classics, while other high budgets produce boring television or movies.

In TV series, the low budget episodes with no scene changes, no special effects and with no guest stars are called "bottle episodes". They can be rote and repetitive, but in some cases they can become famous.

One of the most famous bottle episode of Seinfeld was the Chinese Restaurant, where Elaine, Jerry, and George (no Kramer) are trying to get a seat in a chinese restaurant. There is one small scene change, the episode moves in real time, and nothing happens.

That chinese restaurant episode may have changed thoughts on TV forever. Made famous during brainstorming for "Jerry" a few years later, the network brass was having heart attacks when the tape arrived. TV Execs are some of the most unimaginative and risk adverse bunch out there (along with casino execs.) They only want to "break the mold" for shock value, little else.

I think this kind of episode can be the best. It is like early-1980s video games. Back then there was a very limited memory and processing power to work with, so the games had to be very entertaining in their premise. On TV if you have the budget for Charlie Sheen you can skimp on plot because people will tune in for him. If you have a bunch of nobodies then you better have a good plot and good writing.