Being Primaried

September 12th, 2018 at 8:05:26 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 843
Posts: 10062
Reminder, Republican canididates in 2016:
John Kasich, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Jim Gilmore, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, Scott Walker, Rick Perry

Is there any chance President Trump will be primaried? Kasich gets the most press on this issue, but that is probably because he seemed to dislike Trump so much.

Historically Ford came very close to losing to Reagan in 1976, and Kennedy gave Carter a bruising fight in 1980. Johnson kind of side-stepped the issue in 1968 by withdrawing after (winning) the first primary, but itís plausible that he could have lost.



Is there anything to be gained by a 49 year old Bobby Jindal running a campaign just to build his public perception back up for a run in 2024?
September 13th, 2018 at 2:30:27 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 110
Posts: 8517
Quote: Pacomartin


Is there any chance President Trump will be primaried? Kasich gets the most press on this issue, but that is probably because he seemed to dislike Trump so much.


I'd say there is a fairly good chance a never-Trumper in the GOP commits political career suicide to try to make their point just because the never-Trump wing will never accept reality. Someone will be blind like McCain was and think the media likes them and give it a shot.

To a normal sitting POTUS, this would weaken them. But Trump will get stronger as he has defied political CW from day one.

Might help the Dems as well as it will take attention away from the developing circus on their end.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
September 13th, 2018 at 3:49:04 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 843
Posts: 10062
Quote: AZDuffman
To a normal sitting POTUS, this would weaken them. But Trump will get stronger as he has defied political CW from day one.


For the most part the Republican POTUS has gotten stronger on his second term. Democrats have gotten weaker. Exceptions to the rule seemed to be 1992 and 1996. I don't think that any candidate will mount a serious rival in the primary, it would just be a dog and pony show.

Democrat LBJ weaker to the point of withdrawal
Republican Nixon stronger
Republican Ford (not applicable)
Democrat Carter weaker (lost)
Republican Reagan much stronger
Republican HW Bush weaker (lost)
Democrat Clinton probably stronger (some might say Perot got weaker)
Republican GW Bush stronger
Democrat Obama weaker

Quote: AZDuffman
Might help the Dems as well as it will take attention away from the developing circus on their end.


It will be a circus But I don't think a California senator will help much to take back Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.