Majority Minority districts and gerrymandering

In the 1990 election John Lewis was one of 9 Democratic congressmen in Georgia and the only African American. Newt Gingrich was the only Republican.

In the NY Times article in August 1992, Representative John Lewis warned that this change (adding many minority districts) may help Republicans by weakening the coalition of Southern blacks and progressive whites that elected many Democrats over the last two decades.

After the 1994 election there were 3 Democratic congressmen in Georgia (all African American) and 8 Republican congressmen (all white).

So I think John Lewis's prediction came true.

Quote: AZDuffman

It is sound on one level but bad on another level. All we are doing is creating Black "homelands" like they used to have in South Africa, albeit in a gentler form.

I have to admit that sounded like an extreme comment the first time I read it, but it turns out the sentiment is actually shared by a large number of black scholars.

Quote: Damion Waymer

The irony of how South Carolina elected officials use the 1965 Voting Rights Act to assure a Black Democratic member of the House of Representatives, but simultaneously by gerrymandering elected officials actually reduce the likelihood of a second Democratic representative of any race/ethnicity.


Black Voter Dilution, American Exceptionalism, and Racial Gerrymandering: The Paradox of the Positive in Political Public Relations

One observation to be made is that African Americans were making slow headway into the House of Representatives for three decades from 4 in 1960 (Chicago, Harlem, Detroit, Philadelphia) to 27 in 1990 plus 1 delegate from Washington D.C.

The additional majority minority districts in 1990 resulted in an additional 22 AA congressmen in one election, but the total was unchanged in 2008. Only after 2008 did the number start increasing partly aided by the election of 4 AA Republican congressmen (women).

Republican African American congressmen
Tim Scott (born 1965) South Carolina's 1st January 3, 2011 -> January 2, 2013
Allen West (born 1961) Florida's 22nd January 3, 2011 -> January 3, 2013
Will Hurd (born 1977) Texas's 23rd January 3, 2015 -> Incumbent
Mia Love (born 1975) Utah's 4th January 3, 2015 -> Incumbent

Election	House	Delegates
1960	4	0
1962	5	0
1964	6	0
1966	6	0
1968	10	0
1970	12	1
1972	15	1
1974	16	1
1976	16	1
1978	16	2
1980	18	1
1982	21	1
1984	20	1
1986	22	1
1988	24	1
1990	27	1
1992	39	1
1994	41	2
1996	39	2
1998	37	2
2000	37	2
2002	38	2
2004	40	2
2006	44	2
2008	39	2
2010	43	2
2012	42	2
2014	45	2
2016	46	2

Th election of Steven Cohen in 2006 to the district around Memphis, which has the second highest percentage of African American citizens in the country was a little bit of a surprise. An African American father son had previously represented the district winning the previous 12 elections.
Harold Ford, Sr. January 3, 1983 - January 3, 1997 (7 elections)
Harold Ford Jr. January 3, 1997 - January 3, 2007 (5 elections)
Steve Cohen January 3, 2007 - present (6 elections so far)

Quote: Pacomartin

I have to admit that sounded like an extreme comment the first time I read it, but it turns out the sentiment is actually shared by a large number of black scholars.

On the other site a user accused me of "living in my own little world" for statements like I made. But really, I just tell the truth and give it without sugar or flavor.

Quote: AZDuffman

On the other site a user accused me of "living in my own little world" for statements like I made.

Well the logic seems unassailable to people. In 1980 there were 18 African American representatives in the House which means 18/435=4.1% while the percentage of the general populace was three times that amount. Hence, we need a law to increase representation. Even today it is 46/435=10.6%.

Unhappy with the slow rate of change that was happening as society matured, they jump start it artificially . That is successful in it's immediate goal by getting 12 more African Americans into the House of Representatives, but it is a disaster ultimately by destroying the chances of white Democratic candidates in the South and losing control of the House.

BTW, I am not a member of either Party.

Quote: Pacomartin

BTW, I am not a member of either Party.

Can you vote in a primary?
I would register as an Independent but then you are locked out the primary in that state I live in
So I register for a party to participate in a primary

Quote: terapined

Can you vote in a primary?

No I cannot.
I wanted to vote for a neighbor who is running for judge. In Vegas the judge positions are non-artisan. The PA system seems stupid to me.


In Pennsylvania the judge candidates register both Republican and Democrat and you have to be in a party to vote.
My neighbor won both the Republican and Democratic primaries, so she ran against herself in the Fall.

Vivian Zumas defeated Michael Recchiuti, Paul Schaffer, and Raymond Lynn in the Democratic primary for the Northampton County Magisterial District 03-1-04.
Vivian Zumas defeated Paul Schaffer, Michael Recchiuti, and Raymond Lynn in the Republican primary for the Northampton County Magisterial District 03-1-04.

Northampton County Magisterial District 03-1-04, Democratic Primary, 2017
Vivian Zumas 63.97% 1,394
Michael Recchiuti 22.49% 490
Paul Schaffer 11.43% 249

Northampton County Magisterial District 03-1-04, Republican Primary, 2017
Vivian Zumas 44.03% 579
Paul Schaffer 35.51% 467
Michael Recchiuti 17.57% 231

In Michigan you do not need to be a member of a party in order to vote in a primary, but you can only vote for people of one party.
If you vote for people from more than one party, your ballot is tossed.

Quote: Dalex64

In Michigan you do not need to be a member of a party in order to vote in a primary, but you can only vote for people of one party.
If you vote for people from more than one party, your ballot is tossed.

Awful system.

Primaries should be run on a closed system. If you are not a registered member you have no business choosing who to run in the general.

Quote: AZDuffman

If you are not a registered member you have no business choosing who to run in the general.

I don't have any problem with that. I just think there should be some non-partisan positions. In the case of magisterial judge every single candidate registers under both parties.

Quote: Pacomartin

In 1980 there were 18 African American representatives in the House which means 18/435=4.1% while the percentage of the general populace was three times that amount.

I was thinking about the logic of this assumption. If the minority group is 12% of the general population, and they always vote for the candidates from the same party, then given each candidate has a 50/50 chance, you would expect that the chosen candidate of the minority group would win office only 6% of the time. If furthermore the candidate of the chosen party may or may not be a member of the minority group. So you would expect the representation in congress to be much less than 6%.

So, in fact, it is unrealistic to expect that if the AA minority group is 12% of the general population, than congress should have 12% of it's representatives AA. It would only be realistic if AA candidates run for both parties and have a wide appeal across the general population.

So even with the racial gerrymander it is not surprising that congress is still not 12% African American.

========================
The Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) is a Democratic-controlled caucus (28 congressmen from the House)
The Congressional Hispanic Conference (CHC) is a Republican Party-controlled caucus (6 congressmen from the House)

So that is only 34 members in both caucus's which is even fewer than the 46 African American members of congress. Yet the Hispanic percentage of the general population is larger than the African American.

While the Hispanic voter is slightly more likely to vote Republican than the African American voter, once again it is highly unlikely that there will ever be a point where the Hispanic percentage in Congress is the same as the general population.

========================
As of May 2018, there are 84 women in the House making women 19.3% of House representatives. That is still a long way from 50% of the House.

Quote: Pacomartin

I just think there should be some non-partisan positions. In the case of magisterial judge every single candidate registers under both parties.

I can see that. Who cares what party the Prothonatary and Recorder of Deeds are from?