Worst possible news for Boeing

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March 14th, 2019 at 6:01:11 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 908
Posts: 10738
Quote: gamerfreak
I don’t know the business well, but It already seemed like most Airlines we’re leaning towards airbus in the last decade or so.


Boeing still has a commanding lead in dual aisle jets. In single-aisle jets Airbus has a strong lead in the over 200 seat single-aisle jets, but Boeing and Airbus were about equal in the 200 seats. However, the Max-8 was Boeing's product in this last category.

World-wide demand for single-aisle jets is massive, and Airbus could not meet demand if Boeing shuts down their production line. For flights of 3000 miles or less, the fuel burn on dual aisle jets is so high, that airlines can't afford to run the larger jets on the short routes (with a handful of exceptions).

There is a possibility of some sales of the smallest Dreamliner being done to replace some of the single aisle jets (particularly the B737max-10), but it is a jet whose retail price is an extra $100 million

Airplane Families Current Price
$ in millions average
737 MAX 7 $99.7
737 MAX 8 $121.6
737 MAX 200 $124.8
737 MAX 9 $128.9
737 MAX 10 $134.9

787-8 $248.3
787-9 $292.5
787-10 $338.4
March 14th, 2019 at 2:01:58 PM permalink
petroglyph
Member since: Aug 3, 2014
Threads: 21
Posts: 3782
Damn, that looked like a frightful ride! https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-14/new-satellite-network-offered-clues-boeing-737-mystery-crashes
Everyone gets thrown from the plane to maintain altitude
March 14th, 2019 at 6:50:36 PM permalink
petroglyph
Member since: Aug 3, 2014
Threads: 21
Posts: 3782
Quote: Pacomartin
I can't imagine how many orders will be cancelled. There are thousands on order from companies that have received less than 2 deliveries so far.
Indonesia has already dropped most of their orders.

Boeing 737 Max orders as of July 2018
1 Central Asia
47 Africa
49 Oceania
95 Caribbean
121 Central America and Mexico
161 South America
312 Middle East
314 East Asia
342 South Asia
493 Southeast Asia
755 Europe
850 Unidentified
1214 North America
4754
It's a software fix isn't it? Isn't it still an airworthy craft other than some training and changing out the nose diving characteristic of the computer program?
Everyone gets thrown from the plane to maintain altitude
March 16th, 2019 at 4:44:48 AM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 7
Posts: 668
Quote: petroglyph
It's a software fix isn't it? Isn't it still an airworthy craft other than some training and changing out the nose diving characteristic of the computer program?


I think the stock market agrees with you. BA stock has rebounded slightly from the lows immediately after the crash. If the perception among those in the know would be BA would lose those 4754 orders, plus pay out the hundreds of millions if not billions in lawsuit costs, then the stock would be down far more than it is already.
March 22nd, 2019 at 3:23:02 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 908
Posts: 10738
Is anyone going to avoid certain airlines that have purchased the B737-Max?

MAX orders - North American Airlines ranked by % passengers
  1. 100 American*Airlines 19.94% United*States
  2. 280 Southwest*Airlines 16.01% United*States
  3. 137 United*Airlines 15.50% United*States
  4. 61 Air*Canada 5.09% Canada
  5. 32 Alaska*Airlines 4.48% United*States --- only North American airline to order B737MAX not to have received deliveries
  6. 55 WestJet 2.50% Canada
  7. 60 Aeroméxico 2.14% Mexico
    ...
  8. zero Delta*Air*Lines 18.84% United*States
  9. zero JetBlue*Airways 4.13% United*States
  10. zero Spirit*Airlines 2.87% United*States
  11. zero Volaris 1.80% Mexico
  12. zero Frontier*Airlines 1.82% United*States
  13. zero Interjet 1.21% Mexico
  14. zero Allegiant*Air 1.33% United*States
  15. zero Hawaiian*Airlines 1.16% United*States
  16. zero VivaAerobus 0.98% Mexico
  17. zero Sun*Country*Airlines 0.20% United*States

Clearly Southwest Airlines is the most dependent on Boeing 737, but Aeroméxico comes a close second. Their entire single aisle fleet of 47 jets is composed of the Next Generation B737s, so they meant to use the MAX as a fleet refresh. So far they have had 6 delivered.


March 30th, 2019 at 9:53:31 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 908
Posts: 10738
Alaska Airlines placed an order for 32 B737MAXs almost 6.5 years ago.

Order Date Customer Name Total
13. Dec. 2011 Southwest Airlines 150
12. Jul. 2012 United Airlines 99
11. Oct. 2012 Alaska Airlines 32
1. Feb. 2013 American Airlines 100
13. May. 2013 Southwest Airlines 30
4. Nov. 2013 Southwest Airlines 20
27. Dec. 2016 United Airlines 38 (total 137)
26 Aug 2017 Southwest Airlines (first delivery)
28 Sep 2017 American Airlines (first delivery)
20. Dec. 2017 Southwest Airlines 40
29. Mar. 2018 Southwest Airlines 40 (total 280)
23 Apr 2018 United Airlines (first delivery)

Alaska Air only merged with Virgin America on March 22, 2017. As a result of the merger, Alaska inherited 71 existing Airbus jets and an order for an additional 32 Airbus A320/321neo orders. Although they have not yet canceled the Airbus order, the scuttlebutt was that they were going to try to return to an all B737 fleet.

Deliveries B737MAX before Ethiopian Air crash
Southwest Airlines (34 deliveries)
American Airlines (24 deliveries)
United Airlines (14 deliveries)

In May 2018 just after the merger, Alaska Air delayed the first delivery of the MAX to June 2019 to slow down growth. That decision was made almost 6 months before the Lion Air crash.

Alaska Airlines is somewhat different, as their major hub is in Seattle Airport, just a few miles away from where the B737 is manufactured. If they abandon their Boeing jets, there may be a boycott.
March 30th, 2019 at 12:03:17 PM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 55
Posts: 6847
Quote: Pacomartin
Is anyone going to avoid certain airlines that have purchased the B737-Max?
MAX orders - North American Airlines ranked by % passengers
Passengers that have a choice matter. Airlines that have a choice matter.
The public and wall street will forgive. Its only airlines that are locked into situations that have worry. Even SWA has an immediate solution of cancelling flights and issuing press releases.

it wasbad for boeing to have done this in secret. Naïve pilots without even a footnote about a major event even if its thought to be unlikely.
March 31st, 2019 at 11:09:28 AM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 7
Posts: 668
Quote: Pacomartin
Is anyone going to avoid certain airlines that have purchased the B737-Max?


Yes. But I will not be one of them. Wrong or foolish or whatever, I have trust in the FAA and aviation in general. It is above my pay grade to try and analyze if the weather conditions are safe enough to fly, if the pilots are well trained enough, if the planes are sturdy enough, if the software is good enough, etc.... I KNOW that under virtually any circumstance it is safer for me to fly the 2500 miles to Vegas than to drive there.....

I would be willing to bet that the safety difference between the least safe legal commercial airplane and the safest one is a mere fraction of the difference between a small car and a Hummer.....
March 31st, 2019 at 12:40:01 PM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 55
Posts: 6847
Quite correct.
Driving is a constant risk' flying is pretty much take off and landing risks.
Safety levels are already high. FAA allows simulated evacuation drills because real ones can cause injuries.

think of that car that accelerated on its own. After a while there were recalls but the first victim went to prison, that is what happens when critical items can be 'burried'.
April 1st, 2019 at 9:03:42 AM permalink
odiousgambit
Member since: Oct 28, 2012
Threads: 99
Posts: 2484
trivia question: which has more fatalities per journey, traveling by airline or by car?

I'll provide the answer, since everybody will guess this one correctly, to figure "by journey" is so unusual. But I think it illustrates why our intuition on the matter often conflicts with what we know to be true, that airline travel is safer.

[quoting wikipedia]There are three main ways in which risk of fatality of a certain mode of travel can be measured: Deaths per billion typical journeys taken, deaths per billion hours traveled, or deaths per billion kilometers traveled. ...statistics for the United Kingdom 1990–2000. Per billion journeys, Air=117 deaths, Car=40 deaths ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety


PS: in fact I've decided whenever someone mentions flying is safer, I'm going to say "except per journey" just to get the reaction
Mustard:You like Kipling, Miss Scarlet? Sure, I'll eat anything [from movie]
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