Will James Holzhauer be beaten?

Quote: Wizard

I didn't know, but Jazz is just about my worst subject.

Here’s today’s Final Jeopardy (in the category Around The USA) for Friday, May 24, 2019
Astronomy buffs visit Idaho for the USA’s first dark sky reserve; oddly, part of it is this resort area with a bright name

As you can imagine James has a massive command of Geography question.




Of all 27 games, this is the only Final Jeopardy question that James got wrong. Fortunately he had a runaway score going into the question
Scores going into Final:
James $30,200
Lewis $13,000
Stephanie $11,000

Lewis got the question right betting $10K, but even though James got it wrong he couldn't lose as long as he bet less than $4200.

Here’s today’s Final Jeopardy (in the category Celebrities) for Thursday, April 11, 2019 (Season 35, Episode 154):
This inductee into the Video Hall of Fame sold 17 million copies of a videocassette she released in 1982

Quote: Pacomartin

[
This inductee into the Video Hall of Fame sold 17 million copies of a videocassette she released in 1982

Has to be Jane Fonda, her videos
were huge in the early 80's. They
would be silly now, 40 years ago
they were revolutionary because
home VCR's were just becoming
vogue. I got my first one in 82
for $1200. It had a manual tuner,
and could only record one channel
if you programmed it. I thought it
was wonderful.

Quote: Pacomartin

Astronomy buffs visit Idaho for the USA’s first dark sky reserve; oddly, part of it is this resort area with a bright name

James won the following amounts in Final Jeopardy in his first four games
1) =$2000 The Jordan, Bear & Weber Rivers deposit over a million tons of minerals into it annually, much of that chloride & sodium
2) ~$10000 Remove 2 letters from within the 6-letter name of this capital & you get the name of a capital from a neighboring country
3) ~$7000 On June 6, 2018 the Chinese Theatre dimmed its lights to honor Jerry Maren, who lived to the greatest age of any of this 1939 group
4) ~$38000 Ironically, it's a metaphor meaning a huge step forward, but this 2-word process only occurs on a subatomic scale

James has only missed a single Final Jeopardy question (out of 27 games). He knew the category before he bet, "celebrities" which he knows is a weak spot. So he only bet $3K. But still, how much money would you risk on a single Q-A?

Well he won episode #28

The scores at the end of the Double Jeopardy! round had James with a runaway lead
James $72,022
Monica $6,600
Scott $6,200

From what I can tell is roughly 9% of the time this season when a player is confronted with a runaway lead he bets $0 or $1 to preserve his money. As long as he bets $58,823 or less he is guaranteed a win and to play in the next episode.

James bet $58,000 to maximize his earnings.

In this episode the category was GAMES, and it turned out all three contestants guess the correct question.

ANSWER "When this game was introduced in 1860, it had squares like Intemperance & Poverty & if you hit the Suicide square your game was over"

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The first 100 episodes of this season, the winning contestant averaged $17,072 going into the final Jeopardy question and won $5,297 in FJ

James over his first 27 episodes averaged $48,917 going into the final Jeopardy question and won $21,734 in FJ. He had a lock on the game 24 out of 27 episodes.

If he hasn't lost by 40, they will
bribe him to lose just to get
him off the show. If he just
keeps going and going people
will get sick of him and stop
watching. Smart people will
stop applying to be on the
show, what's the point.

Right now he's a ratings
god, he will turn into a
liability soon.

Quote: Evenbob

If he hasn't lost by 40, they will bribe him to lose just to get him off the show.

They bribed Mr Stempel to get him off he show in the 1950's, but they never paid off the bribe. He was promised his own quiz show. That's when he went to federal authorities.


It was a totally humiliating experience for me.
All my friends knew that I loved Marty. It's one of my favourite films.
I, I, I saw it three times.It's about a boy in the Bronx--
Mr Enright will see you now.
Have a seat, Herb.
Thanks for comin' up. I feel we have some unfinished business we need to hash out.
I have some unfinished business with you, too.
This whole thing with the grand jury andthe things you said, well, they hurt me.
I can't tell you how--Well, they hurt me deeply.
- I told the truth.
- There you go again.
You promised me, Dan. Y-Youpromised that you'd help me out.
Don't you think that I wanna help you more than I already have?

Quote: Pacomartin

They bribed Mr Stempel to get him off he show i]

They won't let this guy win forever.
Nobody smarter will come along,
it looks like he's even getting better
at it. The odds of him losing a
final when he's not way ahead
are tiny. They could even the
playing field by making the
questions so hard they're
all equal by the end. Then
he might lose.

Quote: Evenbob

The odds of him losing afinal when he's not way ahead are tiny. .

Out of 28 episodes the game has not been a runaway only three times. A runaway is a game where James has more than twice his 2nd place opponent, and even if he gets the final question wrong he will win anyway.

But he was still ahead in all three games (James score vs 2nd place)
$29,114 to $18,800
$33,517 to $27,000
$31,200 to $25,800

In each case James bets enough money so that if he gets it correct he will have more than double his opponents cash. As long as he gets it right it doesn't matter if the opponent gets it correct or not as he cannot win
$29,114 bets $9,812 to get $38,926
$33,517 bets $20,500 to get $54,017
$31,200 bets $20,908 to get $52,108


In actuality James got it correct all three times, and his opponent got it correct 2 out of 3.

The real miracle will be if the winner depends on James getting it correct, and his opponent getting it wrong.

Quote: Evenbob

They won't let this guy win forever.
Nobody smarter will come along,
it looks like he's even getting better
at it. The odds of him losing a
final when he's not way ahead
are tiny. They could even the
playing field by making the
questions so hard they're
all equal by the end. Then
he might lose.

If they want to even the field they should make the questions easier not harder. However he would still have a buzzer skill advantage. That advantage has now been honed with hours of practice.