Will James Holzhauer be beaten?

I was out of town the last few days but saw James' fall at my mom's house. I think he played a good game, but between bad luck and strong opponent, just didn't win. This is the second time I've heard he took a dive (is that the right term?). I'll examine the details more closely, but my initial instinct is I don't agree.

Quote: Wizard

This is the second time I've heard he took a dive (is that the right term?). I'll examine the details more closely, but my initial instinct is I don't agree.

Why would he take a dive? They shoot all five episodes for a week in one day. This week's episodes were taped on 15 March (right as Alex announced his stage 4 Pancreatic cancer). James makes ~ $400K in one filming day. Alex Trebek makes only $217K in one filming day and he has had the job for 35 years.

The first piece of evidence is that in the losing game the "First In percentage" by James was only lower once (his second game). People claimed he was lax. But in addition to Emma getting 21 questions right, Jay got 13 questions correct. It's a chicken and the egg problem. Either they got in because James was lax, or the competition between the two of them simply eroded his normal high "first in percentage".

The second piece of "evidence" is that James was depressed about not getting any daily doubles. He only failed to pick a daily double in one episode out of all 32 episodes that he won. James did pick one in the final episode but it was of no use to him since it was the first tile to be picked. The initial 15 questions before the first commercial break.


James chose the daily double on his first pick and could only bet the face value of the tile. Had he picked it on a later tile, he would no doubt have gone "all-in".

Because James had no opportunity to wager money, Emma went "all-in" on her first Daily Double pick, and bet $3K on a $2K question for her second Daily Double.

So while James had more correct answers, Emma had a $3200 lead after Double Jeopardy. James only failed to lock the game 3 times out of 32 episodes, and prior to this he was in the lead all three times.

THE LAST PIECE OF "EVIDENCE" that is proposed that James was not into the game was his uncharacteristically small $1399 wager on Final Jeopardy. But basically he knew that Emma was going to gamble $20,201 to lock him out if he went "all-in". That's what he would have done, and he could see that she wasn't going to try less. So given that he could do nothing about Emma except pray that she got it wrong, he wagered just what he needed to preserve his "lock" on Jay in case Jay went "all-in" and the unlikely outcome was that both James and Emma got FJ wrong, and Jay got it correct.

The one inviolate rule of Jeopardy is you always play in such a way that you think you are preserving your chance to get to the next episode. Your secondary consideration is maximizing your earnings.

Quote: Pacomartin

Why would he take a dive? They shoot all five episodes for a week in one day. This week's episodes were taped on 15 March (right as Alex announced his stage 4 Pancreatic cancer). James makes ~ $400K in one filming day. Alex Trebek makes only $217K in one filming day and he has had the job for 35 years.

I, of course, don't believe that conspiracy theory and think James played that game, including the Final Jeopardy wager, correctly. The believers at WoV say that because of Alex's health the producers are angling for Ken Jennings to be the next host and that it would be more dramatic if he remained the Jeopardy champion in both number of wins and total amount won. As the theory goes, they paid off James to take a dive.

Quote: Wizard

I, of course, don't believe that conspiracy theory and think James played that game, including the Final Jeopardy wager, correctly. The believers at WoV say that because of Alex's health the producers are angling for Ken Jennings to be the next host and that it would be more dramatic if he remained the Jeopardy champion in both number of wins and total amount won. As the theory goes, they paid off James to take a dive.

Agree. Of course not. You’re making $70,000 an hour, and you don’t have to lift anything, or supervise anyone. Why would you ever stop?

Quote: Wizard

I, of course, don't believe that conspiracy theory and think James played that game, including the Final Jeopardy wager, correctly. The believers at WoV say that because of Alex's health the producers are angling for Ken Jennings to be the next host and that it would be more dramatic if he remained the Jeopardy champion in both number of wins and total amount won. As the theory goes, they paid off James to take a dive.

I don't think Ken will be the next host. https://thejeopardyfan.com/2017/11/sorry-buzzy-cohen-ken-jennings-wont-next-host-jeopardy.html .

Quote: Hollywood Reporter

The syndicated game show drew its best household rating in 14 years in the week of April 29. Jeopardy's 8.3 mark among households was its highest since March 2005.

Jeopardy averaged 13.28 million daily viewers for the week. That was better than the same-day audiences for every Nielsen-rated show in primetime, including CBS' broadcast leader The Big Bang Theory (12.49 million viewers) and the initial tune-in for HBO's Game of Thrones (11.8 million, not including streaming).

Jeopardy's ratings have climbed steadily during Holzhauer's streak. In his first full week of shows (April 8-12), the show averaged 10.09 million viewers. It grew to 10.67 million the week of April 15, then 11.97 million and 13.28 million — a gain of almost 32 percent over those four weeks. Household ratings have gone up by nearly 30 percent (6.4 to 8.3) in the same time frame.

The ratings for the show skyrocketed... so rather than keep James on for as long as possible, the producers decided to break the law and risk prison time to get rid of their cash cow?

In order for a conspiracy theory to make sense, it has to make sense. This conspiracy theory sucks.

I think it was at WoV that I opined that when you see someone on Jeopardy clicking like mad to ring in, they are doing it wrong

since I made that remark, I noted some game winners doing that* and started to doubt it myself. However, this video** does confirm that, starting at 4:47 ... plus some other good stuff on that, plus it is good in general

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z922g9R6xE&list=WL&index=17&t=0s

*we record the shows and we were catching up on old ones at the same time as staying current with Holzhauer

**thanks, Gialmere, for finding it