Coming recession

Bank of America has increased the odds of a recession next year from 1 in 5 to 1 in 3. And Morgan Stanley analysts predict a recession in the next nine months if the trade war between the U.S. and China continues to escalate.


Three Reasons Recession Fears Have Suddenly Increased- Forbes

Topline: Falling stocks, trade wars and an inverted Treasury yield curve are three signs that analysts say are predicting a U.S. recession

The White House announced Tuesday it would delay some China tariffs from September 1 until December 15, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to zoom up nearly 500 points by mid-morning. Stocks fell Monday and were predicted to decline Tuesday, as uncertainty mounts for a China trade deal and global economic health. After President Trump surprised the world with more tariffs on Chinese goods, Goldman Sachs analysts estimate a new trade deal will not materialize before the 2020 election.

In the bond market, an inverted Treasury yield curve—long used by economists as a recession predictor—is nearing the same level it had reached before the 2007 recession.

Quote: Pacomartin

.....In the bond market, an inverted Treasury yield curve—long used by economists as a recession predictor—is nearing the same level it had reached before the 2007 recession.

Every time there has been an inversion going back to 1967, a recession has occurred within 16 months. [Scottie Hughes]

I'm sure Trump supporters (and probably Trump himself) will find someone to blame.
Right out of the playbook - claim responsibility for any successes or positive news, blame someone else for everything else.

Quote: Dalex64

Right out of the playbook - claim responsibility for any successes or positive news, blame someone else for everything else.

That is more or less the definition of politics. I don't associate that playbook with any particular party.

Quote: Dalex64

Right out of the playbook - claim responsibility for any successes or positive news, blame someone else for everything else.

Like spending 8 years whining that you "inherited a bad situation?"

Quote: Pacomartin

That is more or less the definition of politics. I don't associate that playbook with any particular party.

Agree 100%

Recessions are not predictable. If they
were they would cause far less harm.

Bill Maher said on his show last Friday that he's rooting for a recession. His reasoning: America has survived many recessions. We have never survived two terms with a president as corrupt and inept as Donald. If a recession is what it takes to make voters come to their senses about the con man, so be it.

Quote: Evenbob

Recessions are not predictable. If they
were they would cause far less harm.

Recessions clean out deadwood. We may be worse off that they come more rare than pre-1982 as it seems when they come less frequent they are much sharper. Next one hits and CA is going to get totally clobbered. Next one will probably finally sort out the retailer economy as we still need to see some retail chains put out of their misery and replaced with better and newer concepts.

Quote: Pacomartin

That is more or less the definition of politics. I don't associate that playbook with any particular party.

I agree. I was sorta making a prediction on the reaction to the news. I missed. The first reaction I saw was denial that there was going to be a recession. The second reaction was about the positive benefits of a recession.