Democrat Vice President

Quote: AZDuffman

We do not blindly follow. We think for ourselves.

Yep, and I also think Trump was just trolling DEMocRATS too. 🤣

Quote: AZDuffman

I had a thread on it here years ago. Population will start declining about 2100. When it starts it will be runaway, a kind of reverse chain reaction. As more and more infrastructure can no longer be run it will be unstoppable. Hollowed out cities.

The Hungarian Revolution lasted from 23 October until 10 November 1956. Some of my relatives immigrated to US during the Revolution. Hungary's current population is the same as it was in 1954-1955 and will probably drop to WWII levels in the next few decades. The Hungarians conquered the Carpathian basin roughly 1100 years ago.

While I agree that certain cultures may not survive the great depopulation, it hardly seems that mankind itself will be threatened. Don't forget massive overpopulation is still a threat to roughly 25% of the world population.

I am familiar with the kind of predictions you are talking about, I just don't believe them.

Quote: Pacomartin

The Hungarian Revolution lasted from 23 October until 10 November 1956. Some of my relatives immigrated to US during the Revolution. Hungary's current population is the same as it was in 1954-1955 and will probably drop to WWII levels in the next few decades. The Hungarians conquered the Carpathian basin roughly 1100 years ago.

While I agree that certain cultures may not survive the great depopulation, it hardly seems that mankind itself will be threatened. Don't forget massive overpopulation is still a threat to roughly 25% of the world population.

I am familiar with the kind of predictions you are talking about, I just don't believe them.

The science behind the prediction is both simple and common to all cultures. The richer a society gets, the lower the fertility rate. A fertility rate of less than 2.1 per woman means long term population decline.

The prediction part comes by noticing that once a population falls below replacement fertility rate it does not recover and go above it again.

Within 100 years the threat of overpopulation will be gone. It will be replaced by most of the world being unable to support the infrastructure made for a much larger population.

Quote: AZDuffman

The prediction part comes by noticing that once a population falls below replacement fertility rate it does not recover and go above it again.

The US Census Bureau predicts that Africa with population 1,339,492,000 in the year 2020 roughly the same as the world population 150 years ago.
Africa will reach a population of 2,533,582 in the year 2050 comparable to the world population a century earlier in 1950 of 2,525,000,000

Isn't it more likely that the population centers in Africa and South Asia will take over the infrastructure-heavy portions of the world with their aging receding population?

Europe Population ~ US Census Bureau
1950 547,140,000
2020 749,333,000
2050 716,447,000

Europe in 2050
Births 6,555,000
Deaths 9,995,000 (52% higher than births)
Migrants 1,114,000

Hungary in 2050
Births 71,994
Deaths 130,573 (81% higher than births)
Migrants 6,962

Africa in 2050
Births 58,877,690
Deaths 13,828,373 (77% lower than births)
Migrants -791,481


I think that the official models may have way underestimated the number of immigrants

I think your model is accurate as far as certain portions of the world, but 100 years is far too short for a global prediction. It may be more like 500 years, and it is possible that if the world sinks into global poverty that children will become popular again.