Presidential Election 2020 Biden vs. Trump

Poll
6 votes (33.33%)
9 votes (50%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (16.66%)

18 members have voted

October 28th, 2020 at 10:50:45 AM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12421
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
October 28th, 2020 at 11:21:41 AM permalink
petroglyph
Member since: Aug 3, 2014
Threads: 25
Posts: 6227
Quote: kenarman
I would sooner have my car fixed properly by an asshole than be stranded on the road by a 'really nice guy'.
Best post.
The last official act of any government is to loot the treasury. GW
October 28th, 2020 at 11:23:15 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Wizard
I don't often do this, but here is a preview of my next newsletter -- Betting the 2020 Election.


Very good article. Two minor suggestions
(1) The table arranged alphabetically is difficult to peruse. I would consider sorting it by percentage and then EV votes.
(2) Virginia , Colorado, and New Hampshire deserve some small percentage points for Trump (possibly 10%). Won't change rest of analysis substantially.

EV Trump Expected Value State or Con. Dist.
11 100.00% 11.00 Indiana
11 100.00% 11.00 Tennessee
10 100.00% 10.00 Missouri
9 100.00% 9.00 Alabama
9 100.00% 9.00 South Carolina
8 100.00% 8.00 Kentucky
8 100.00% 8.00 Louisiana
7 100.00% 7.00 Oklahoma
6 100.00% 6.00 Arkansas
6 100.00% 6.00 Kansas
6 100.00% 6.00 Mississippi
6 100.00% 6.00 Utah
5 100.00% 5.00 West Virginia
4 100.00% 4.00 Idaho
4 100.00% 4.00 Nebraska less CD
3 100.00% 3.00 Alaska
3 100.00% 3.00 Montana
3 100.00% 3.00 North Dakota
3 100.00% 3.00 South Dakota
3 100.00% 3.00 Wyoming
38 74.20% 28.20 Texas
18 68.20% 12.28 Ohio
6 61.00% 3.66 Iowa
16 60.20% 9.63 Georgia
29 55.80% 16.18 Florida
1 50.00% 0.50 Maine CD
1 50.00% 0.50 Nebraska CD
15 47.70% 7.16 North Carolina
11 43.60% 4.80 Arizona
20 35.20% 7.04 Pennsylvania
10 31.10% 3.11 Wisconsin
6 30.50% 1.83 Nevada
16 28.10% 4.50 Michigan
10 27.20% 2.72 Minnesota
13 10.00% 1.30 Virginia
9 10.00% 0.90 Colorado
4 10.00% 0.40 New Hampshire
55 0.00% 0.00 California
29 0.00% 0.00 New York
20 0.00% 0.00 Illinois
14 0.00% 0.00 New Jersey
12 0.00% 0.00 Washington
11 0.00% 0.00 Massachusetts
10 0.00% 0.00 Maryland
7 0.00% 0.00 Connecticut
7 0.00% 0.00 Oregon
5 0.00% 0.00 New Mexico
4 0.00% 0.00 Hawaii
4 0.00% 0.00 Rhode Island
3 0.00% 0.00 Delaware
3 0.00% 0.00 District
3 0.00% 0.00 Maine less CD
3 0.00% 0.00 Vermont
538 42.69% 229.69 Total
October 28th, 2020 at 11:42:10 AM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 188
Posts: 18631
Quote: petroglyph
Best post.


I don”t think Trump is that kind of assholr. But no doubt, he is one. C
You believe in an invisible god, and dismiss people who say they are trans? Really?
October 28th, 2020 at 11:52:32 AM permalink
Dalex64
Member since: Mar 8, 2014
Threads: 3
Posts: 3687
In Pennsylvania, some "blue" counties will start counting mail-in ballots at 7am on election day.

Some "red" counties don't plan on starting until after the polls close.

Some results, as they are done, will be made publicly available after the polls close. When the mail in ballots are counted, they will not be changing the result of the election - they are part of the result of the election.

I fear some of these "red" counties, by delaying starting counting, may be dragging their feet intentionally, in order to "run out of time" before they have to certify the results of the election, before all of the ballots that arrived on time are counted.

Watch for that across the country.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan
October 28th, 2020 at 11:57:17 AM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 73
Posts: 11786
Quote: Dalex64
In Pennsylvania, some "blue" counties will start counting mail-in ballots at 7am on election day.

Some "red" counties don't plan on starting until after the polls close.

Some results, as they are done, will be made publicly available after the polls close. When the mail in ballots are counted, they will not be changing the result of the election - they are part of the result of the election.

I fear some of these "red" counties, by delaying starting counting, may be dragging their feet intentionally, in order to "run out of time" before they have to certify the results of the election, before all of the ballots that arrived on time are counted.

Watch for that across the country.

All mail in ballots should be counted and numbers posted on election day as soon as possible.
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
October 28th, 2020 at 12:08:46 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
No candidate of either party has won the White House without carrying Ohio since John F. Kennedy in 1960.

This election may break the streak as Trump may win Ohio and lose the nationwide election.

Alas Ohio!


wether (n.) "male sheep," especially a castrated one, Old English weðer "ram".
October 28th, 2020 at 12:11:59 PM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 51
Posts: 4942
Quote: Pacomartin
No candidate of either party has won the White House without carrying Ohio since John F. Kennedy in 1960.

This election may break the streak as Trump may win Ohio and lose the nationwide election.

Alas Ohio!


Cute picture but why is that relevant and what is it? Being from Ohio that most resembles a girl I dated 40 years ago.
At my age a Life In Prison sentence is not much of a detrrent.
October 28th, 2020 at 12:13:46 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12421
Quote: DRich
Quote: Pacomartin
No candidate of either party has won the White House without carrying Ohio since John F. Kennedy in 1960.

This election may break the streak as Trump may win Ohio and lose the nationwide election.

Alas Ohio!


Cute picture but why is that relevant and what is it? Being from Ohio that most resembles a girl I dated 40 years ago.


What part of Ohio are you from?
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
October 28th, 2020 at 12:19:03 PM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 51
Posts: 4942
Quote: ams288
Quote: DRich
Quote: Pacomartin
No candidate of either party has won the White House without carrying Ohio since John F. Kennedy in 1960.

This election may break the streak as Trump may win Ohio and lose the nationwide election.

Alas Ohio!


Cute picture but why is that relevant and what is it? Being from Ohio that most resembles a girl I dated 40 years ago.


What part of Ohio are you from?


A City called Lorain. It is about 20 miles west of Cleveland.
At my age a Life In Prison sentence is not much of a detrrent.