Presidential Election 2020 Biden vs. Trump

Poll
6 votes (33.33%)
9 votes (50%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (16.66%)

18 members have voted

November 9th, 2020 at 10:52:39 AM permalink
Dalex64
Member since: Mar 8, 2014
Threads: 3
Posts: 3687
Quote: Wizard
I have looked this topic up and already did the math. So far, I'm not seeing anything out of the ordinary.

Since this is a topic that is mathematical in nature, I am going to take the topic over to WoV.


Link? I'd be curious to see what you've come up with.

So far, I've seen a graph on stack overflow that someone labeled with "How to lie with statistics" - comparing a smooth-looking graph with a Y axis from 0 to 14, with a very spiky graph with a Y axis from 8 to 12.5. Overlaying both graphs on the same Y-axis scale makes them look, well, a lot more similar to eachother.

https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/49782/do-vote-counts-for-joe-biden-in-the-2020-election-violate-benfords-law

I've got no evidence of this, and couldn't find anything supporting or refuting it, but my first thought was that the analysis was only done on mail-in ballots, which did skew very heavily in Biden's favor.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan
November 9th, 2020 at 11:07:22 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 239
Posts: 6095
EB, I hope you're happy. I spent at least two hours on this post responding to your allegation at WoV. BENFORD'S LAW AND THE 2020 ELECTION.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
November 9th, 2020 at 11:36:56 AM permalink
Dalex64
Member since: Mar 8, 2014
Threads: 3
Posts: 3687
So, the argument doesn't have anything to do with:
ballots
illegal ballots
ineligible voters
how many people got ballots
how many people returned ballots
how ballots were collected
when the ballots were returned
how ballots were counted
when the ballots were counted
overvotes that weren't corrected
how many observers were allowed during the counting of the ballots

but rather that counties, lots of counties, or maybe just the "blue" counties, at the end of the counting process, reported fake-number vote totals for the final results?
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan
November 9th, 2020 at 11:47:35 AM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25011
Quote: Wizard
EB, I hope you're happy. I spent at least two hours on this post responding to your allegation at WoV. BENFORD'S LAW AND THE 2020 ELECTION.


This guy seems legit and he found
significant deviations from Benfords
Law in the election results for Biden.

If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
November 9th, 2020 at 12:29:36 PM permalink
JimRockford
Member since: Sep 18, 2015
Threads: 2
Posts: 971
Quote: JimRockford
I'm not generally in the prediction business, but here is mine. If I am right (or close) I will be back to gloat. If I'm wrong no one will remember.

Assuming AZ and GA hold up, I was damn close on the EC count, but I got three states wrong. Can’t really gloat.
The mind hungers for that on which it feeds.
November 11th, 2020 at 3:51:13 PM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 73
Posts: 11791
Quote: Wizard
Let the record show that Aussie and I bet $50 US on Trump showing up for Biden's inauguration. I bet that he would.

Only 3 Presidents were noshow at an inauguration
Will Trump be the 4th
John Adam's lost to his VP Jefferson
John Quincy Adam's lost to Jackson
Andrew Johnson lost to Grant
All 3 elections very contentious
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
November 11th, 2020 at 4:12:29 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12509
The thing that would make me hesitant about placing an inauguration bet is the fact that I highly doubt we will have a “traditional” outdoor inauguration this year. The WH virus will still be running rampant in January. Thanks, Donny...
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
November 11th, 2020 at 4:17:47 PM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 73
Posts: 11791
Quote: ams288
The thing that would make me hesitant about placing an inauguration bet is the fact that I highly doubt we will have a “traditional” outdoor inauguration this year. The WH virus will still be running rampant in January. Thanks, Donny...

If Donny attends
Big if
If I were Biden, I would rather be outside near Trump then inside near Trump
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
November 11th, 2020 at 5:10:16 PM permalink
Aussie
Member since: May 10, 2016
Threads: 2
Posts: 458
Quote: ams288
The thing that would make me hesitant about placing an inauguration bet is the fact that I highly doubt we will have a “traditional” outdoor inauguration this year. The WH virus will still be running rampant in January. Thanks, Donny...



Has to be a big chance that it’s just Biden, Harris, their spouses, the Chief Justice, a few relevant people from the administration and a camera crew.
November 11th, 2020 at 11:57:21 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25011
The bigger problem here is that
unless the huge cheating involved
here is dealt with now, there will
never be a real election in this
country again. It will be who can
cheat the best on either side.
If the Dems in these big cities
get away with this, it sends the
signal that cheating any way
possible on the grandest scale
possible is now just fine. There
is so much at stake here, it's
almost hard to wrap your mind
around.

For instance, everyone agrees
the Dems will for sure lose
the House in 2022 because
they lost a ton this time and
the Right not only didn't lose
any seats, they picked up a
bunch. If cheating is allowed
on the scale that happened
here, the Dems would not
only not lose, they would
pick up seats. This has to be
dealt with now, in 2020.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.