Presidential Election 2020 Biden vs. Trump

Quote: AZDuffman

Plus Biden sooner or later has to talk.

Why. He's polling just fine by
hiding sight and keeping his
senile old trap shut.

Quote: Evenbob

Why. He's polling just fine by
hiding sight and keeping his
senile old trap shut.

Best possible strategy for him.

Quote: Wizard

I agree 100%. I view what is going on now like the reaction to a school shooting. For a week or two everybody is hot and bothered about it, but then everybody forgets and nothing much changes.

It's possible this could look like the 1968 election, where Nixon won looking like a strong law-and-order candidate, especially compared to Humprey.

1968 United States presidential election.

1968 is so much a model. If there is a Democrat Convention I see the same demonstrations. Might see a floor fight for Bernie. Democrats are going off the rails though for different reasons today.

Trump will be seen as law and order plus stable. Karen and Chad might make excuses for the rioters, but Mr and Mrs America do not. Trump has had possibly the worst 6 months of any POTUS in history yet Biden is still seen as weak. That is amazing.

May you live in interesting times.

As always, the path to victory will go through the swing states and the Electoral College, (particularly for Trump) but here are a few of my observations that should make this pretty interesting...absent a huge Biden screw up or the unlikely event that Trump ceases to be a near total disaster as President:

1.) Trump carried 46.1% of the Popular Vote in 2016 and it's very difficult for me to believe this number improves. I just cannot look at the present situation in the country and figure out how he has not LOST support. I'm not saying lost a ton, but some. I think 46% is his ceiling unless something drastic happens.

2.) If not for Trump, who was worse, Clinton in 2016 would have had a nearly historically bad net favorability rating for a POTUS candidate. Thus far, Biden performs better than Clinton in raw favorability and net favorability in nearly every poll. 45.5% is the average for unfavorable view of Biden which, I take to mean, essentially every single likely Trump voter. Again, that's why I have 46% as Trump's popular vote ceiling.

3.) #2 seems a bit counterbalanced by the fact that Trump's favorability numbers, compared to 2016, have all improved across the board. We also know that he well outperformed his favorability numbers in 2016, (popular vote percentage) but he was going up against a much less-liked candidate.

As always, it will come down to the Electoral College votes in swing states, which lack enough polling data to even make a decent prediction at this time.

MY POPULAR VOTE PREDICTION:

Trump 45.3%, Biden 48.5% (+/- 1% for both)

Again, plenty of time on the clock for something major to happen.

Quote: AZDuffman

1968 is so much a model. If there is a Democrat Convention I see the same demonstrations. Might see a floor fight for Bernie. Democrats are going off the rails though for different reasons today.

Trump will be seen as law and order plus stable. Karen and Chad might make excuses for the rioters, but Mr and Mrs America do not. Trump has had possibly the worst 6 months of any POTUS in history yet Biden is still seen as weak. That is amazing.

May you live in interesting times.

If it's a model, I'm not seeing it. If you take Wallace out of the race, it's just a completely one-sided absolute landslide for Nixon. The East Coast would be turning off the TV and going to bed before the West Coast had even finished voting. Total annihilation.

I think people might see Biden as a less divisive leader who could actually come out and say something that would unite the country in this situation. As Wizard points out, Americans are mostly idiots with extremely short memories, but you can see Trump's approval tanking the last few weeks. Were I Trump, I'd demand to see Derek Chauvin so I could kick him directly in the balls. (Not literally). More likely he decides to pardon him.

Suppose you and I were in person, I'd ask you to look me in the eye and tell me you wouldn't prefer W. right now. I actually didn't think he was that bad, excellent and actually strong leader who could unite folks across the lines. Iraq was stupid. Other than that, I was basically okay with him.

OMG

Trump campaign demands CNN apologize for poll that shows Biden leading

Quote:

Washington(CNN) President Donald Trump's campaign is demanding CNN retract and apologize for a recent poll that showed him well behind presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

The demand, coming in the form of a cease and desist letter to CNN President Jeff Zucker, was immediately rejected by the network.

You can’t make this stuff up...

Quote: AZDuffman

I am ready to say leagalize all the junk. Let people use it. At least the profits will stay in the USA. Get the collapse over with.

Yep, we're already near the point of no return (if we haven't passed it already!), so I'm starting to think this way too!

Quote: ams288

OMG

Trump campaign demands CNN apologize for poll that shows Biden leading



You can’t make this stuff up...

Trump being Trump is actually a gift for the Democrats that will be there all the way to November. Unlike everything else.

Quote: Mission146

As always, the path to victory will go through the swing states and the Electoral College, (particularly for Trump) but here are a few of my observations that should make this pretty interesting...absent a huge Biden screw up or the unlikely event that Trump ceases to be a near total disaster as President:

What part of peace and prosperity were you upset with? What policy of Trump caused the china virus?

Quote: Mission146

Suppose you and I were in person, I'd ask you to look me in the eye and tell me you wouldn't prefer W. right now. I actually didn't think he was that bad, excellent and actually strong leader who could unite folks across the lines. Iraq was stupid. Other than that, I was basically okay with him.

No, I would not want W over Trump. W gave people no reason to support him, even those of us who hung with him to the end. He just let the left say things and never fought back. His private accounts for SS was a brilliant idea. Had it been in effect it would have really helped protect wealth. It would have given people with few assets at least something to pass on to their next generation. This would be the blacks that are always being brought up in wealth disparity with whites.

But as soon as it was attacked he said, "Oh, well." Unlike him, Trump keeps pushing. When the Democrats lock the door, Trump tries to get in the window. When they lock the window he tries the door.

Bush was a prep school kid. Trump is a street fighter.

A really excellent fact driven video
on how the Leftist media has
been collapsing for over 2 years
and especially during covid. They're
ad base has deserted them, people
are totally rejecting the globalist
world view worldwide and going
conservative in droves.

Worth watching, mostly facts and
little opinion: